OPEC has once again revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025, citing weaker demand from China and economic challenges. This marks the third consecutive downward revision by the organization.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025, marking the third consecutive downward revision. The latest forecast anticipates a growth of 1.93 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from the previous estimate of 2.03 million bpd. This adjustment reflects weaker-than-expected demand, particularly from China, the world's largest crude oil importer. China's oil imports have fallen for the fifth consecutive month, contributing significantly to the downgrade. OPEC has reduced its growth forecast for China's oil demand to 580,000 bpd from 650,000 bpd, citing economic challenges and a shift towards cleaner fuels as key factors. The organization's report also highlights subdued diesel consumption due to slowing economic activity and the substitution of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for petroleum diesel in heavy-duty trucks. The revised forecast comes amid a backdrop of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with potential disruptions to oil infrastructure adding to market uncertainties. Despite these challenges, OPEC's demand growth forecast remains above the historical average of 1.4 million bpd seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) offers a more conservative outlook, projecting a demand growth of only 900,000 bpd for 2024. The divergence in forecasts underscores the uncertainty surrounding global oil demand, influenced by factors such as China's economic performance and the pace of the transition to cleaner energy sources. OPEC+ countries, including Russia and Iraq, have been implementing output cuts to stabilize the market, but high production levels in non-OPEC+ countries like the US and Canada continue to exert downward pressure on prices. Brent crude prices have been volatile, recently trading below $78 per barrel, reflecting the market's cautious sentiment. As OPEC+ prepares to potentially increase production quotas in December, the organization faces a complex landscape of economic and geopolitical factors that will shape the global oil market in the coming months.
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