Telefónica, S.A. (TEF) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
Published at 2022-05-18 01:44:06
Thank you, Ángel. Slide 16 shows the solid performance across the Hispam region. Firstly, we continue our fiber transformation across our operations with almost three million new premises passed in the last 12 months, showing a clear acceleration versus the previous period's deployment. Secondly, our revenue and OIBDA remained robust with revenue growing in all countries and new operational model offsetting inflationary pressures. It is worth noting the appreciation of LatAm currencies which had a strong positive effect on euro-denominated growth. And lastly, capital employed was reduced 14% on a year-on-year basis, thanks to new asset-light models with an efficient use of our resources. Turning to Slide 17. We highlight our strong balance sheet derived from a prudent debt management that has allowed us to benefit from a long average debt life close to 13 years. We have over 80% of our debt at fixed rates and report group interest costs below 4%. So we are well positioned to face new market dynamics. Our robust liquidity position that exceeds maturities beyond 2024, help us to comfortably face any market environment. We have made a lot of progress to increase local debt and aligning more closely with our FX exposure. I will now hand back to Ángel, who will wrap up. Ángel Vilá Boix: To wrap up in Slide 18, the first quarter showed a strong start to the year with sequential improvement in organic and reported growth across the whole group, beating inflationary pressure on which we expect the work to be refined. FX provided support in this first quarter, allowing for strong double-digit reported growth in Brazil and Hispam. From a commercial point of view, we maintained strong momentum, boosting fiber to the home, enabling us to increase relevance and engagement with our customers. Looking ahead, synergies are starting to materialize at VMO2 and will soon start to flow through from Oi, and we continue to position Telefónica to sustainably grow in all business units. Finally, we reiterate our guidance for 2022 and confirm 2022 dividend. Thank you very much for listening. We are now ready to take your questions.
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Mathieu Robilliard from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes, good morning and thank you. First, I have a question around net neutrality. I think you've been very clear over the past few years about only Big Tech to contribute towards net costs, the streaming is probably 70% of European growth, network traffic. I note from recent public comments that the EC, Mrs. Vestager and Mr. Breton, seem supportive, and they promised to come back by the end of the year with a framework that could enable European telcos to get a contribution from Big Tech. So my question really is, how confident are you that this could come through? So what is the time line? The reason I'm asking is that investors, at least some of them seemed quite skeptical about a positive outcome there, notably in terms of how to implement this. And then the second question is around Spain. I note that the convergent ARPU is up year-on-year, not the first time in a while. And I was wondering what was behind that. Is there less spin down, is competition less impactful, although we are seeing still a lot of aggressive promotions. So I guess the underlying question is, is that ARPU trajectory sustainable in your view? Thank you. Ángel Vilá Boix: Thank you, Mathieu, for asking about the topic of net neutrality and fair share regulation because this topic we think as I think you do in your latest two reports, we think it brings a positive optionality for the whole sector. As José María, our Chairman, together with heads of DTV Vodafone and Orange commented in a letter to Financial Times. The exponential growth of traffic in our networks associated or linked to a limited number of content platforms is requiring all of us to do continued investments to meet the demand, and this is an increasing challenge in the context of declining profitability in retail markets. And traditionally, the large digital content platforms are not compensating the telco sector for the use of networks. The traffic they inject into the networks, and therefore, the costs and investments that they induce in the networks. We have invested, of course, in international transport and CDNs, providing some relief for our costs. But most of this traffic still has to be delivered through our national networks and access networks where the most of the cost and investment is located. So this is why we are calling for a fair contribution to our costs to make this sustainable. There were two recent reports delivered by, I think, Frontier Economics and Axon that delves into the cost of Big Tech's traffic on European networks, the asymmetry of negotiating powers. The potential impact in Europe on socioeconomic terms of -- that would bring if Big Tech would cover part of this cost. So we think that this should be the turning point where European policy makers are determined to take steps towards solving this problem, and we welcome the initial positive remarks by commissioners for Vestager and Breton regarding this note. So we think that -- and we have hopes that fair share regulation should mark the end of the fee rate for over the top. Then moving to your second question on the Spanish ARPU, we have been able to grow our ARPU 1.5% year-on-year in this quarter to €91.1 for the first time since the end of 2019. This growth in comparison of ARPU is driven by the strategy that we have been deploying. And if I cover the moving parts on the positive side of the evolution of this ARPU, the more for more move that we did in February which still has not impacted the full quarter, of course. In legacy portfolio and also in the packages that include Netflix, we also had a positive that comes from the lower effect of promotions. Another positive is higher consumption out of the bundle and the fourth positive would come from new digital services. On the other hand, this has been mitigated by higher weight of no-frill packs. And there was a ruling against betting entities doing ads on TV that reduced part of our income. So more for more, less promotions, higher out of the bundle and new digital services were the positives driving our ARPU up.
Thank you very much. Adrián Zunzunegui: Thank you, Mathieu. Next question please.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Wright, Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes, good morning guys. Thank you and a couple of questions from me, please. It's only Q1, but your growth run rate against guidance already looks quite conservative. And I know that within your proportionate EBITDA, Spain and U.K. represent about, give or take 50%, and we can clearly see easing Spanish comps with energy costs, content and employee costs. We can clearly expect an acceleration in U.K. EBITDA with only one as you get the full effect of price increases. So against that, you've had a strong start in Germany, but Germany also looks like a potential guidance upgrade. So I just wonder what headwinds we could imagine in the other business units? I mean Brazil is talking about another paid ARPU rise too. So what headwinds are out there that means you can't continue to beat this guidance? That's part one. And then part two, just for Laura, perhaps, LatAm, noncore Hispam, I guess, what is the potential still to maybe monetize any of those assets? Is that something you're stepping away from a little now? You've decapitalized the businesses that are performing well? Or is it quite the opposite now as we come out of COVID it's back to the negotiating table? Those two questions. Thank you. Ángel Vilá Boix: Thank you, David. On the first question of the guidance, as I was saying in my speech before, we provided guidance when we presented full year results, which happened to be the day that the war was -- this terrible war was started and the macro context has worsened significantly since then, increasing uncertainty and inflationary pressures. But still, we are managing to bring Q1 results especially, for instance, in revenues at the high end of our guidance range, and we have been beating consensus expectation of revenue OIBDA, operating cash flow and free cash flow levels now. These results demonstrate our ability to cope with inflation, and we showed sequential improvement in revenues for OIBDA and OIBDA minus CapEx in organic terms. And thanks to FX tailwinds and even larger improvements in the reported terms. So this gives us confidence in spite of the adverse macroeconomic scenario to reiterate our guidance in 2022 of low single-digit growth in revenues and OIBDA and up to 15% CapEx to sale despite these pressures. We will, of course, monitor the evolution across the year and make, if needed, any upside adjustments to this, but we think it's not the moment to make any upward adjustment.
Thank you, David, for the question. First, our strategy remains intact regarding Hispam. As we said a couple of years ago, we remain committed to modulate exposure to the region with creating the conditions to maximize its value via growth, consolidation and potential corporate transactions. I think the last two years since the decision of spinning off from an operational point of view, the region has been critical. We have transformed the operations and executed definitely a turnaround. We have approached the region, as you have been able to follow with a very disruptive model both from an organization perspective and also from an infrastructure perspective. And I think we have achieved very solid results with that new management model, and it's being based, as I said in the past, with very thorough execution and pulling main levers. As you say, if any, now we have definitely a more favorable framework not only because we have built the pillars for a better outlook for Hispam, but also because it seems we could have a more stable macro and sector trends and also FX tailwinds. So we think we have created value in Hispam. It has a lot of optionality, and we could consider things as we will do for any asset without -- within our portfolio if it creates additional value. So we will definitely look at everything. But what I can say is that the Hispam is no longer dragging financial or management resources, and I think it has a good optionality also from running the operations as we have been doing. And in fact, I humbly say that we've been beating consensus almost every quarter since we came with this new model.
And Laura, just quickly, is deleverage the absolute priority if you were to monetize any of those assets? Or could you now be persuaded even into share buyback territory?
You came with the third question, but deleverage is definitely a priority. It's not an absolute priority in the sense that we have to deleverage, while creating value and becoming a more sustainable company going forward, but deleverage is definitely a priority for us. We are strong committed to an investment-grade credit rating. The one -- and regarding shareholder remuneration, we came back to a full cash dividend of €0.30, which is attractive, which is sustainable. And obviously, if there's excess free cash flow, you have to look at all potential uses of that free cash flow and deleverage could be one. And we will take the proper decision as we manage our balance sheet and our credit rating, great. So that will be it.
Thank you very much. Thank you. Adrián Zunzunegui: Thanks, David. Next question, please.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Fernando Cordero from Banco Santander. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Fernando Cordero Barreira
Hello, good morning and thanks for taking my two questions. The first one is on Hispam and particularly on the news, one B2C offering, the miMovistar new platform. In that sense, I would like to understand which are the key strategic targets from the side with this new platform? And particularly at which extent are you prioritizing to increase the value per customer to increase the number of services per customer versus to increase the absolute volume of customers given also what is the structure of the offer? My second question is related with Telefónica Tech. You have already explained quite well and the recent developments there. But I would like to understand which is still the pending M&A or inorganic growth road map in Telefónica Tech? And at which extent are you still open to incorporate, let's say, financial partner in order -- sorry, to keep funding the inorganic growth in Telefónica Tech, as you highlighted back in the past? Many thanks. Ángel Vilá Boix: Thank you, Fernando, for your questions. We launched on May 15, the new portfolio of miMovistar. We revamped after having had the portfolio of Fusion for 10 years, we revamped the comparison portfolio to make it more flexible. It is a portfolio which is modular. It starts with connectivity to which models can be added to include television offer devices and then value-added services such as health, gaming, security to build more complete and adapted formula for the customers. Existing Fusion customers can choose to continue with their current tariff or switch to miMovistar. Prices are similar to those of Fusion. So for comparable packages, there would not be a relevant impact on customers. However, we're aiming this portfolio to be service revenue accretive. We are aiming to have more traction commercially, especially in the mid ARPU segment of the market. We continue to hit a punch above the rest of the players in the high ARPU segments of the market. We have competitive offers now in the now fields, but what we have been seeing is that especially in the mid ARPU segment, we were not offering the flexibility that our customers wanted, customers that wanted to upgrade from mid packages to include additional content, but didn't want to take many more features, couldn't do so easily, and we are now providing that opportunity. So we are aiming for additional commercial traction. We're aiming, of course, there can be also some repositionings by some customers but we're aiming to provide easier options for upgrading to medium ARPU customers and reducing the churn in that segment, and therefore, increase the B2C service revenue in -- with miMovistar. Regarding Telefónica Tech, you can see on Slide 13 how we are building up the company. First, we did the carve-out of the units. We have then been executing many transactions either to strengthen the geographic presence, particularly in the U.K. and the German market or capabilities. Now we move to the next stage, which is a focus on integrating these acquisitions and of course, continuing the growth momentum of Telefónica Tech. So no significant further M&A pending. And of course, we will aim to communicate and explain Telefónica Tech as well as we can to the market to start seeing it in the sum of the parts of our group. Our focus is to integrate these acquisitions, continue to deliver momentum, continuing to build quarter-on-quarter track record of Telefónica Tech which, of course, post acquisitions is going to have a run rate of revenues by the end of this year, exceeding €1.5 billion. And we have seen interest from potential investors, but we will choose the right time to bring anybody in, and we think that there is still potential of growth for this unit. So we'll pick the right time which probably now is -- now it's the time to integrate and continue to deliver growth momentum and not continue doing M&A and trying to convince you to show this in the sum of the parts of Telefónica.
Fernando Cordero Barreira
Very clear answer. Thank you. Adrián Zunzunegui: Thank you, Fernando. Next question, please.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Keval Khiroya from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. Two questions, please. So firstly, we saw a step-up in the Q1 lease liabilities to €8.7 billion. Are you able to discuss how we should think about that number going forward and also the evolution of the lease payments in the cash flow? And then secondly, you had a strong EBITDA performance in group other reflecting tech and also lower group costs. It's a line which perhaps is a bit more difficult for us to model, but can you provide some color on how we should think about the EBITDA evolution for this group other line? Thank you.
Thank you, Keval. On leases, the increase, it's a natural consequence of the Telxius deal we closed in 2021. So you should be a step change in that, and then we will be more on a recurrent level. Having said that increase in leases, as you know, the net leases -- net debt plus leases reduction was significantly with this transaction. We actually reduced the net debt-to-OIBDal pro forma at 0.3x in ratio on top of all the benefits now in financial optimization, redeploy these resources of the towers into other core operations, the value creations with a very high multiple, increasing vendor diversification in the tower space in Europe and so on. But that had the impact in leases as we explained when we announced the transaction. We also have some impact from the FX revaluation of Brazil and also Hispam band, but mainly Brazil. And that could continue if the FX remains strong, which could be good for the revenue and OIBDA, no doubt, no -- but I think that increase has much to do with the Telxius build. And from the free cash flow perspective, the explanation could be similar. I mean we have the lease payments from the tower deal and also some FX revaluation. On the other, unfortunately, Keval, this is a very difficult line to give you any color because it does have the impact of consolidation perimeter, and that's negative because we are excluding this year what we had included last year on towers, Costa Rica and El Salvador, so that's going to have a negative impact in the valuation. It also includes restructuring expenses that this year should be definitely lower. So that could be a positive. And apart from that, we have a holding and global unit cost in which we have been saying and that's already impacting the orders. We have been going through a lot of efficiency, and we are a much leaner company in the corporation and global units in general. And we also have -- so that's good news. And we also have the other subsidiary is not included in the core OBs or Hispam. So there, we also have good news because we have the growth of some of the tech services. We also have a very strong start of the year of our producing unit. We also have a very strong cable, which I don't think you are taking into account in the consensus, and we have low-teens revenue growth in the cable unit. So in general, that would be good news together with the efficiency. But unfortunately, if we -- the perimeter changes and we have any restructuring or capital gains, which are not part of the core OBs should also be there. So difficult to predict, but the structure behind that is definitely in the right direction.
Okay, that's clear. Thank you so much. Adrián Zunzunegui: Thanks, Keval. Next question please.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Georgios Ierodiaconou from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. If I could start with a question around the fiber JV processes in the U.K. and Spain. I just wanted to clarify a couple of things. Firstly, whether there's the perimeter you are considering is just what you show in Slide 15 or whether there is any scope either in the U.K. or Spain to potentially go beyond the rural areas in Spain and beyond the 7 million greenfield in the U.K.? And also specifically in the U.K., if you don't mind just updating us on the progress you had in finding some wholesale partners. And I heard whether I'm right in thinking that given wholesale adds value to the asset. Is it fair to assume in the event that you do find a financial partner before you announce any wholesale deal that then it becomes less likely or whether that's too simplistic? I'd be interested to get your feedback on that. Thank you. Ángel Vilá Boix: Thank you, Georgios. I will take the first question, and I will ask Lutz to respond the second one on the wholesale partners. On the first one off of the fiber joint ventures, on the Spanish one, we decided to launch a fiber company covering a subset of our network, carving out part as brownfield of our fiber in areas which are less than 20,000 inhabitant towns. So it's designed for the rural areas, which are not served partially yet, where there is still a greenfield opportunity to build there and also where there is an opportunity for potential consolidation of other players that have been bidding in some of these geographies. We did this because it's an industrial project, not just a pure financial engineering. One, it has a growth perspective. It is eligible for fiber subsidies. And from the brownfield contribution, it has cash flow generation from day one. And this would be the -- an animal that then because we will continue to consolidate it accounting wise in our accounts would not put any pressure on our financial position. This is already -- this project that we have already initiated talks with investors. We are seeing a very healthy level of interest. We're expecting first round nonindicative offers later this month. And this would be the project that we are aiming for fiber in Spain, not a different perimeter. With respect to the U.K., we have, on one hand, a project that we're doing 100% at VMO2, which is the upgrade from the current cable network to fiber that we will deploy between now and 2028, the pilots are confirming our estimates of cost for the upgrade. So that's going to be done by VMO2 completely. And the fiber joint venture that we are already also in talks with investors, it's up to 7 million greenfield homes passed outside the current footprint of Virgin Media O2. It will be 50% an investor and the other 50% held by Telefónica Infra and Liberty Global. The process has been launched. We already got the first round indicative bids. We're actively engaging with investors, and we see a strong interest in that process as well. For the second question, I'll pass it to Lutz, please. Lutz Schüler: Thank you, Ángel. Good morning, Georgios. So I mean, first of all, you've seen our guidance for this year, right, that we will be growing OIBDA mid-single digit. I'm saying that because, yes, we are in wholesale negotiation, but we are doing this out of a position of strength, so that's number 1. Number 2, I mean, what do we have to offer if we have the ambition to cover 23 million homes out of the U.K., that means we are one out of two national fiber networks. And of course, we want to have a certain share of the wholesale business. But we have to act in a balanced way because on one hand side, we offer higher speed to a possible wholesale partner and may be also some discounts. On the other hand side, we don't want to disrupt the wholesale market that we devalue the entire fiber infrastructure, we are all spending our own money. And maybe to your last question, are we in a hurry to close the wholesale deal before we are going to sign a deal with an investor on the fiber joint venture? The answer is clearly no. Two reasons for that. One, as you might know, we have currently a penetration of our network expansion program. We call it Lightning of 30% and this delivers a very decent IRR. And obviously, we would commit something similar in this fiber joint venture. And, I think, number 2, a financial investor can make up its own mind if he thinks that we are getting a wholesale deal done over the time or not sitting on 23 million fiber homes. I hope that helps.
Thanks. Adrián Zunzunegui: Thanks, Georgios. We have time for one last question, please.
Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Nawar Cristini from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you very much. I have two questions, please. The first one is really a quick follow-up on a previous question on the guidance. Could you discuss how the mix has been? It wasn't since the guidance was provided because, of course, it was for Ukraine and a lot has changed since then, so it'd to be interesting to have your assessment about how the different assets have been performing versus your initial expectations, in particular, the areas where probably you are doing better areas where perhaps it's less so. So any comments on the mix will be particularly helpful. And then I have a question about an area which was at least ahead of consensus expectations in Hispam. Could you discuss a little bit how do you think about prospects here, in particular, given the deteriorating macro backdrop globally? Are you concerned about any impact here, any color will be particularly helpful. Thank you. Ángel Vilá Boix: Hello, Nawar, I'll take the question on guidance. As you do know, as you know, we do not disclose guidance by regions for segments, but I will try to give you some color now. On the revenue side, as you are seeing, we are growing revenues across the whole footprint, we think -- and we aim for revenue growth in all our units the U.K., which was a bit more muted. Of course, we expect items like the price increases to start kicking in the coming quarters. As for OIBDA performance, there are factors which make us confident as the year progresses. So for instance, in Spain, the impact of energy is going to be lapping in the second and especially from the third quarter, also the personnel reduction plan that didn't fully benefit in the first quarter is now going to kick-in in every quarter. Also the La Liga renewal with 15% deflation from the third quarter will be coming in, synergies from the U.K. and Brazil consolidation are also being ramping up during the year. Our German unit has had a very strong start of the year, and they have the tradition to beat the guidance in the last few years, and we are confident that they will continue to stay close to their tradition also this year. So yes, there are headwinds. There is inflation and effects -- economic effects from the war, cost of living crisis, but items like the ones I just described give us confidence to maintain and reiterate the guidance, and we think we are well on track to achieve it this year.
Thank you for the question. I think you were asking about macro, in general environment outlook about Hispam. So if that's the case, let me answer you a bit on everything around the situation now. I mean if we start with the political situation, there's still some uncertainty with the constitutional reform in Chile and others, but we expect events to evolve with no major distress for the institutional framework. Definitely, we have the inflation that has become an additional source of tension, but we have been dealing with inflation for years in Hispam, and I will explain a bit what we are doing in that front. And then as in globally, there's been an increase in interest rates. But fortunately, we did a lot of homework in financing last year and the year before, and we have secured very attractive financing. So for that, we should be protected, which by the way, it's a comment that applies to the whole of the group, not only Hispam. On the other hand, we have the positive impact of commodity prices, and that's also helping FX tailwinds, which in the case of Hispam, it's also important operationally because part of our OpEx and part of our CapEx is U.S. related. On the most, probably the hottest topic, which is inflation, let me tell you that we've been upgrading prices across the Board and in most of our business units. Argentina, we've been talking for long, but we had 63% upgrading tariffs for the last 12 months. Chile, we are updating tariffs 77%, in line with inflation in postpaid, fixed services and B2B is also the case. Colombia, we are updating mid low-end contracts by 4%, Peru, 4% in fixed services, 7% contract, Mexico as well, more in postpaid, 6%, prepaid 3%. So overall, inflation is being factoring the revenue. In OpEx, with this management model and also we went through labor reductions last year, we are seeing that some of the OpEx lines with high incidence of labor impacts us less. And it's worth mentioning that Hispam was really ahead of the curve on digitization. So we have reduced a lot call center costs, shops costs. So there's a lot of it, and you saw already the impact in Argentina, but that's something that would apply across the Board. And then as I said at the beginning, let me remind you on the important FX LatAm appreciation, which will result in improvements in external and fiscal accounts in the region. So we have a positive outlook rather than negative. And on the negatives, I think we will keep on managing and we are better prepared with a leaner operational model as the one we have now.
Brilliant, thank you very much for the color. Ángel Vilá Boix: Well, thank you very much for attending this call in which we are presenting this very strong start of the year and the confident outlook that we have for the rest of the year. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact our IR department. Thank you.