Southwest Airlines Co.

Southwest Airlines Co.

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Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) Q4 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

Published at 2010-01-27 16:27:10
Executives
Bob Fornaro - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Arne Haak - Senior Vice President, Finance, Treasury & Chief Financial Officer Steve Rossum - Executive Vice President of Corporate Development Kevin Healy - Senior Vice President of Marketing and Planning Jason Bewley - Investor Relations
Analysts
Bill Greene - Morgan Stanley Duane Pfennigwerth - Raymond James Jamie Baker - JP Morgan Gary Chase - Barclays Capital Mike Linenberg - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Kevin Christy - UBS Dan McKenzie - Next Generation Equity Research Helane Becker - Jesup & Lamont Steve O’Hara - Sidoti Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners Gary Chase - Barclays Capital
Operator
Good day and welcome to the AirTran Airways fourth quarter earnings call. As a remainder today’s call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions I would like to turn the conference over to you Mr. Jason Bewley; please go ahead, sir.
Jason Bewley
Thank you and good morning everyone. I’d like to thank you for joining us for a discussion of our fourth quarter and full year 2009 results. Joining me today are Bob Fornaro, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Arne Haak, Senior Vice President, Finance, Treasury and Chief Financial Officer; Steve Rossum, Executive Vice President of Corporate Development; and Kevin Healy, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Planning. I like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements. These comments are not historical facts and if they you should consider them as time sensitive forward-looking statements that are accurate only as of January 27, 2010. If you like additional information concerning factors that could cause our actual results to vary from those in the forward-looking statements, they can be found in our Annual Report Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and other SEC filings on the company. We’ll also be discussing several non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are helpful in gaining and understanding of our operating performance, and providing a period-to-period comparison excluding special items. A copy of today’s press release, recent SEC filings and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the Investor Relations section of the company’s website at www.airtran.com. Today we’ll be discussing our fourth quarter results and our outlook for 2010. : Now I would like to turn the call over to Bob.
Bob Fornaro
Thanks, Jason and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us. Today we are please to report our fourth consecutive profitable quarter highlighting the continued year-over-year improvement in AirTran’s financial position as reflected in our quarterly earnings results. For the fourth quarter of 2009 we earned net income of $17.1 million, which includes an unrealized gain of $7.1 million on the increase in the value of our future hedged portfolio. Excluding this item we reported net income of $10.1 million, or $0.07 per share. For the full year 2009 we earned net income of $134.7 million, which also includes certain one time items. For the year, we recorded economic net income of $93.6 million, or $0.67 per share, which excludes gains on our future hedge portfolio and other onetime items. Despite a weak economy, 2009 marked a tremendous financial turnaround at AirTran. Our fourth quarter pretax profit is $134 million higher than the same quarter last year and our full year results represent a pretax improvement of $436 million. This performance represents a true team effort by all the hard working crew members of AirTran Airways. Our annual load factor of 79.8% represents an all time company record and our non-fuel costs remain the lowest among major airlines on a stage-length adjusted basis. Besides the financial turnaround, 2009 was a year of significant change. We became the first major airlines to equip that entire fleet with WiFi. We also made tremendous drives in diversifying our network. We’ve announced service to four new destinations in the Caribbean and seven new destinations in the U.S. Our Florida franchise continues to grow as we added 12 new roots from Orlando and as a result we now serve more destinations from Orlando than any other carrier and we have well and both Baltimore and Milwaukee and strong focus cities in our network. Regarding our revenue performance the worse of the year-over-year declines in industry unit revenue are clearly behind us and the pace of recovery has accelerated in the past two months. We expect that the pace of improvement will continue into the first quarter. Our results for the year have been strong for this challenging environment. We earned recognition as a top ranked low cost airline and the airline quality award for the last two years. Next week we will probably expect the AirTrans for world’s prestigious market leadership award as a result of our financial, strategic and operational performance as well as our marketing initiatives in 2009. Our goal for 2010 is to build upon our 2009 results despite the economic uncertainty in the airline industry. We will continue to work diligently to position the company for both good times and bad. This includes slower growth and improved capital structure, continued diversification of our network and building a solid portfolio of fuel hedges for this year. Our future success will be built around a solid foundation industry leading old costs, competitive, portfolio products and services and a team of hard working crew member pulling together to deliver high quality, high value services, our customers have come to expect and appreciate from AirTran. I will now turn the call over to Arne to give you some more detail on our financial performance and future outlook.
Arne Haak
Thanks, Bob and good morning everyone. As Bob just mentioned we reported net income of $17.1 million for the fourth quarter, $0.11 per diluted share. Included in these results was a $7.1 million gain due to an appreciation in the value of our future fuel hedge portfolio. Excluding this item our economic net income was $10.1 million or $0.07 per diluted share. For the full year, our GAAP net income was a $134.7 million or $0.95 per diluted share. Our economic net income for 2009 was $93.6 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, which excludes gains on our future fuel hedge portfolio, net gains related to asset dispositions and debt repurchases. For a complete reconciliation of these items I direct your attention to the reconciliation tables at the end of today’s earnings press release. Our capacity for the fourth quarter grew 8.1% due to two aircraft that we purchased from Boeing in September as well as at nearly 4% increase in aircraft utilization year-over-year. Our traffic is measured by revenue passenger miles increase 6.9%, resulting in a fourth quarter load factor of 77.4%, which was the second highest fourth quarter of load factoring in company history. Fourth quarter revenues came in a $598.4 million, which is up 1.5% year-over-year and the highest fourth quarter revenue in company history. Passenger unit revenues declined 10.3% year-over-year to $9.26 as a result of a 9.3% year-over-year decline in yield and a 4.7% increase in stage length on 8.1% more ASM. Other revenues increase $25.8 million or 71%. The increase in our other revenues continues to partially offset the decrease in passenger unit revenues resulting in a 6.1% decline in total unit revenue. For the full year, our capacity was down 2.2% year-over-year. Traffic declined 1.9% resulting in a record annual load factor of 79.8%. Total unit revenue for the year was down 6.3%. As Bob highlighted, the pace of yield improvement has accelerated in the fourth quarter. Year-over-year yield declines went from negative double digits in October to download and mid single digits in December. On the cost side of the equation, our total operating cost were slightly lower year-over-year in the fourth quarter and our non-fuel adjusted cost were $6.49, up 0.6% year-over-year, which was aided by $2.4 million favorable to recorded advertising expenses. Our unit maintenance costs were up 26.4% largely due to do final contractual step increased provided for in our 717 Rolls-Royce power by the hour agreement that started in late October. Excluding maintenance increases, all other non-fuel unit costs declined 2.6% in aggregate during the fourth quarter. For the full year, our adjusted non-fuel unit costs were $6.39 or 5.3% year-over-year with maintenance costs being responsible for half of the increase in unit cost. Our economic fuel cost for the quarter was $2.09 per gallon, all in which includes the effects of hedging. For the full year economic fuel costs was $1.88 per gallon all in In regards to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $543 million in unrestricted cash and equivalents, which included the proceeds from $125 million, draw on our revolver. This is the highest unrestricted cash balances in the company’s history. Our non-aircraft CapEx was $5.1 million for the fourth quarter and $16 million for the year. I’d now like to spend a few minutes sharing with you our outlook for 2010. Our fleet plan for 2010 is to remain at 138 aircraft, which reflects the two aircraft deliveries we took from Boeing in September, 2009. As a result, we expect our 2010 capacity to be up 3% to 4% year-over-year. For the first quarter, we expect capacity to be up 7% to 8% year-over-year. Second quarter capacity is projected to be up 4% to 4.5%. Third and fourth quarter capacity is projected to be up approximately 2%. Our next scheduled aircraft delivers in March of 2011. Our advanced bookings and more importantly our yield continue to improve. In 2009, we began the year with a strong base of leisure bookings and starting in late January, experienced weaker close in booking. This contributed to very strong total unit revenues in January of 2009, which were up nearly 10% over January of 2008. In contrast to early 2009, for the last two months we’ve experienced weaker advanced booking, but improved year-over-year booking trends within the last 60 days. Because of the tough January comparisons, we expect total unit revenues in January to be down year-over-year despite the improvement in close in bookings. Our current expectation is that we will see an improvement in February and March unit revenues year-over-year, resulting in total unit bookings increasing 2.5% and 3.5% for the first quarter. We expect these positive trends to accelerate throughout the year. As I mentioned earlier, we experienced the last contractual step increase on our 717 Rolls-Royce power by the hour engine maintenance agreement in late 2009. This will continue to significantly pressure our maintenance costs for most of 2010. We expect that our first quarter non-fuel unit cost will increase by 2.5% to 3% and that our full year non-fuel unit cost will be up from 3% to 4%. The increased cost of our Rolls-Royce contract and increase cost from higher anticipated unit revenues will contribute over one half of the increase in our unit cost for 2010. However, this projected increase is slower than what we experienced in 2009. In regards to fuel, we’ve continued to add to our fuel hedge portfolio during the fourth quarter. As of today, we have fuel contracts for approximately 40% of our anticipated jet fuel volume for 2010. The hedge percentages by quarter are 46% in Q1, 40% in Q2, 37% in Q3, and 39% in Q4. Our portfolio consists primarily of crude based coal options and wide colors based on crude oil and heating oil. Despite the benefits from our fuel hedge portfolio, we expect that our fuel costs in the first quarter of 2010 to be up year-over-year. Based on an average spot price of $78 for crude oil, and $8 for jet fuel refineries spreads in the first quarter, we currently expect our economic fuel costs per gallon to be between $2.25 and $2.30 all in inclusive of taxes, transportation, fuel hedging and inter-plane fee. In closing, we are proud of the results the entire AirTran team has turned in this year, but we have more work to do. Our core competencies of managing our unit costs and providing high value, high quality service remain well suited for the current economic environment. We remain focused on sustaining our low cost advantage as we believe this is the key to our long term success. We believe that we are well prepared for a variety of economic scenarios. Our growth plan is more conservative. Our network and our profitability are more diversified and AirTran is better capitalized. With that I would like to turn the call over for questions. Caitlin.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Bill Greene - Morgan Stanley. Bill Greene - Morgan Stanley: I’m wondering if we could just talk a bitter more about the capacity plans. If I look at the RASM commentary that you made perhaps it’s all this January comp that was made that unique versus the rest of the industry, but the RASM even that the fix in the press release even that doesn’t strike me as particularly strong and you’ve got some aggressive growth on the capacity front. So, maybe reconcile how you’re thinking about that, is it really perhaps too much, maybe you should not have so much utilization here in the first quarter.
Kevin Healy
Hi, Bill its Kevin. I think you touched on it in the January difference is driving a lot of that. What you are seeing is a sequential improvement in unit revenue quarter-over-quarter into the first quarter and a significant difference between the January and March performance and I think as Arne said in his comments after the first quarter we expect to continue to see improvement unit revenue going forward. Bill Greene - Morgan Stanley: So, it’s just this first comp is just sort of an out liar versus the industry?
Kevin Healy
We moved faster than everybody else in the past did a lot last year to bring things down, evenly at the advance bookings we had come into the quarter this year with expect, last year rather layering in a whole bunch of advanced bookings. We come in this year with expectation of stronger performance had lower advances, but are closely very nicely by design. Bill Greene - Morgan Stanley: Bob, maybe I can ask you just for a comment on the industry. I’m curious if you think that this small airlines, so excluding the large legacies, if we’ve just got too many of the smaller and low cost when I think about sort of AirTran and its positioning it strikes me consolidation could help you, but then again I also come back and I think well, perhaps you are not we are soft not having done Midwest. So how do you think about kind of the landscape and how it should evolve?
Bob Fornaro
Obviously it’s a great question and we could probably take an hour, but we won’t I just think about that the industry and let’s go back prior to 2008, most of the legacy carriers don’t make money domestically just to begin with and then we have an underlying trend that’s been going on for a long time where you are going to see shrinkage, lower domestic capacity by the higher cost carriers and they are going to continue to expand internationally. : Because certainly that the price would have been very, very high and what we found as long as our cost structure is good we can finds the leisure routes and because we got a business product on board we are compete for business travelers with in the community. I think is going to be some options and opportunities for us, but I think the days of double digit growth or more for carriers of our size, we’re just not going to see that happen. So the growth will be more deliberate, but I think you’re going to continue to see opportunities, because I think the cost gaps are wide and the larger legacy carriers is not competitive domestically.
Operator
Your next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth - Raymond James. Duane Pfennigwerth - Raymond James: I’m interested about the industry and AirTran’s ability to increase capacity should you want to do so with the current fleet. How much could you increase capacity for a greater utilization and perhaps the comment regarding the industry for the same question?
Bob Fornaro
I think in the short term, our ability to increase capacity, its maybe 1%-1.5%, and if we want to do that it’s probably within the summer. For us, we’re not interested in taking new airplanes. Again, there’s always an opportunity in peak periods to increase utilization, but in terms of taking a big step this year that’s not likely. It’s not our plan to go scale over the market and look for new planes. Again our game plan is pretty simple, we want make sure that company is on very firm footing. We had a good year in 2009. We need at least another good year in 2010 to really kind of put the company back on track to where it was. So it’s going to take two good years to really erase the performance that we had in 2008. So right now it’s financial success first for us. Duane Pfennigwerth - Raymond James: Bob, my question is, just assuming the economy were to get stronger and business were to improve considerably with the current fleet through how much additional capacity could you derive through greater utilization, is that 1% or 1.5% or a higher number?
Kevin Healy
It depends. In the summer, you’re running a pretty high utilization already. The other thing you have to look at is the network diversification that we’ve already done and the benefits of an improving economy are going to move more on the yield side, but depending on which part of the network that you look at, I think we can generally push it up even more in, say, Milwaukee, and Baltimore. Atlanta is probably, we can get a little bit more capacity out of there, but I don’t know the exact number over the peak periods. Certainly in the fourth quarter, we could raise that capacity number quite a bit. Duane Pfennigwerth - Raymond James: If you’re offering, can you speak to performance in Orlando, where you’ve seen some increased competition and any update on Milwaukee, generally?
Kevin Healy
Orlando has been fantastic. It’s one of the bright stars of what we’ve done there with our combination of a low cost and product differential. I think very well positioned and the numbers are very good. The Milwaukee, same sort of thing we talked about in the past is, we’re in a very strong position in the leisure markets. We’ve moved into the business markets and I think everything that we’re looking at is trending positive and performance is very good there, very pleased with that as respect of the network diversification.
Bob Fornaro
Just to follow along with Milwaukee, I think in a very, very short period of time, six months or so, most of the goodwill that was built up for Midwest over a couple of decades again it has been lost in about six months and that certainly has helped for to us improve our performance especially with the business network.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jamie Baker - JP Morgan. Jamie Baker - JP Morgan: You were among the early adopters of unbundling your product. I’m just curious, if you think you’ve unbundled it about as far as you can at this point, or if we should model for continued growth above and beyond demand trends when it comes to non-aircraft ancillary revenue?
Kevin Healy
I’m not going to get into any of the specifics of, what we’re doing on an ancillary, but I do believe there’s more things that we can do and will be doing going forward. It will be a bit slower. I mean, the slope has got to change because some of the biggest programs are out there already. It will continue to grow. Jamie Baker - JP Morgan: Let me ask you then as a follow-up about possibility of moving in the other direction. I’m sure you’re aware of disconnect between Southwest RASM trends and you’re own at least in the early months of this year. I’m wondering if it would make sense to match their bag policies, where you overlap such as Baltimore. It seems that the industry is feeding an ever growing amount of RASM to Southwest?
Kevin Healy
There are a lot of things, I think driving the numbers at Southwest, now least of which is some of the schedule changes they’ve done. They’ve closed the historic GAAP and load factor with the rest of the industry. We spend a fair amount of time to understand, what is driving purchase decisions and I don’t know that I would conclude or wouldn’t conclude that baggage is the only thing going on there. Beyond that, I’m not going to comment specifically on their program. Jamie Baker - JP Morgan: Lastly, just as you look at RASM across your network, obviously a fair amount of new route activity in the last year or so. Any feel for how steady state RASM trends or your better RASM markets, I mean if you were to slice your network into sort of three components, what’s the spread between the markets that are outperforming and the markets that are under performing on RASM, just trying to get a feel for overtime, how that bottom ends can kind of move up and affect the average, I mean without naming markets?
Bob Fornaro
It’s difficult to name markets. You’re right. We’ve done quite a bit of new. The one thing I would say, particularly in the quarter, they have come on very strong, very quickly and we’re pleased with the performance there. I think in general what we’re doing with the network, talked a little bit about diversification already, but generally everything is trending fairly well.
Kevin Healy
I think we would expect a bigger pickup in say the Atlanta, which contains more business travel. So last year, it lagged and I think leisure markets stayed way ahead. So I think we would see a period of out performance there. Milwaukee is a little tricky, right now and we know there’s a lot of capacity in Milwaukee because AirTran has added, Midwest has added, and we’ll see whether all that capacity remains in the market six to eight months from now. So a lot more going on in the upper Midwest than just that the economy, but I think the business market, we’ll see the improvement and that will help us in the Southeast.
Operator
Your next question comes from Gary Chase - Barclays Capital. Gary Chase - Barclays Capital: I wonder if, Arne, you mentioned that you’ve taken the last step function change on the power by the hour contract on the 717. So should we assume that is pretty much full up on maintenance as we look at the fourth quarter, as we think about extending that into 2010? Then when are we going to start running into similar issues if at all on the newer fleet, on the 737?
Arne Haak
On the fourth quarter cost, fourth quarter cost is not a full quarter run rate. So it will move up on the per ASM basis from there. We’ve had now two years if you look at kind of a multiyear trend on maintenance costs, we’ve had two years of really double digit and significantly double digit growth in our unit maintenance costs. As we look out at 2011, we do not see these kinds of increases again and particularly on the 717 fleet, the slope now becomes more than a CPI kind of afloat. There’s adjustment in there for escalation based on industrial commodities and things like that, but and we are, on the 73 side with new 73s coming into the fleet again in 2011 that starts putting the downward pressure on the 73 costs again. Gary Chase - Barclays Capital: I wonder if you could clarify that as well. What’s the order book looking like or the delivery skyline more importantly for 11 and 12 on the 737?
Bob Fornaro
For the first delivery in March 2011 and 2012. Gary Chase - Barclays Capital: If I could just one more for Bob and or Kevin, if you take a look at Milwaukee and this was a specific question I was interested in the way you answered one of the questions there, Kevin I mean historically Milwaukee never worked if you didn’t have the business markets. So I guess what I’m really driving at is, has something changed about the nature of the leisure markets to make you think you can be successful there if you don’t have some of those real powerful business revenue generators the way Midwest used to or do you just have the kind of confidence that you need, do you have line of sight on driving the kind of success out of those markets that you would need to be successful there?
Kevin Healy
I think historically the Milwaukee market, but we have been fairly consistent in saying it’s been under served and I think a lot of the characteristics have been assigned to Milwaukee is that it’s a small business market and there’s not enough demand there with more of a reflection of the type of airline and lack of competition than anything else. If you have the cost structure and the product we obviously drive a lot of leisure, Florida, West Coast and other markets, but I also think that you are seeing an increase in business travel in general comes back over the year Milwaukee will be even stronger. Even Southwest coming in has a beneficial impact of racing awareness in Northern Illinois, parts of Chicago, that will drive more business into the Milwaukee market. So I think it really, it’s not that different than other markets that we’ve entered where with the right price structure, with the right cost structure you can do very well.
Operator
Your next question comes from Mike Linenberg - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Mike Linenberg - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Two questions, I just some the clarification, Arne, when you talked about January, I think I heard you say total revenues were down, but I’m not sure if you were talking about top line revenues or total RASM. Can you clarify that?
Arne Haak
Sure, we are expecting a modest decline in total unit revenues in January and it really has a lot to do with the fantastic performance we had in January 2009. When we look at the performance on a normal seasonality basis, this year’s January looks fine from what you would expect from a normal seasonality coming out of a November and December from where we had been the last couple of months. It’s just with the timing of the holiday last year really helped the Florida season, extended into early January with New Years state falling on a Wednesday last year it gave us a longer leisure period into Florida and then obviously the inauguration gave us tremendous benefits in all three Washington Airports and most important thing for Baltimore and obviously that traffic is not there this year. Mike Linenberg - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: My second question and this just has to do with developing your brands up in Milwaukee. When I think, I think Bob, you started out by talking about how the fleet is all WiFi and I know the two classes throughout the fleet has always been a hedge positive especially with, when you look at the bifurcated fleet that the major have with the originals and other putting, the two classes in our case. As you rollout more the sky was flying and I believe that this point its still, single class, it doesn’t have WiFi, what’s the game plan there and how do you think about you’ve built up a grade brand and people have grown accustomed to the two class configuration, the WiFi, all the AirTran, the bells and whistles that you offer, as that product evolves where we see you flying into some of these markets with the smaller jets with a similar product or is this more temporary? How do we think about it?
Kevin Healy
It’s a good question. It really goes to one of the bigger issues in entering into the agreement with SkyWest. We made an effort to separate the two. We’re not branding the airplane or the service. It’s very clearly differentiated as SkyWest and working in partnership with us. It’s five airplanes and there really is no significant growth plan at all in that agreement at this point. I think we are in the key group. There maybe one or two more, but it’s really designed to support the overall growth of the Milwaukee hub and so far it was also a real good start. Mike Linenberg - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Kevin, it’s just a traditional code rate, codeshare, is that how it’s been structured?
Kevin Healy
Yes.
Operator
Your next question comes from Kevin Christy - UBS. Kevin Christy - UBS: Can you talk about what your specific financial goals are? I mean, obviously a good year. Are you looking for another good year? What is your return on invested capital now? What are your goals for return on invested capital or other similar metric?
Arne Haak
Kevin, this is Arne. As we look at it internally, we talk a lot about that and a lot about what had changed in our business, and how we need to change our business. We’re not going to give any kind of specific targets or time lines. What I can tell you is, while many people are kind of giving us added way for what a great year this has been, we are not satisfied with this. Many airlines would say this would be a great year for many airlines. We’re certainly proud of our results, but we certainly think we have to do more. Again it’s a very broad brush answer, but as you look at our business and the amount of capital it takes, and the increase in borrowing costs, the increase in costs of meaning to hedge your fuel, all has raised the bar for us on what we feel we need to do before. We commit to a faster pace of growth than what we had had planned today. We plan to be very deliberate and much managed in what we do, but we’re not going to give you a specific number or time period like that. Kevin Christy - UBS: Then on distribution, has there been given the online travel agencies elimination of booking fees while back, how does your distribution through your website look and through the other channels, has there been any changes there?
Arne Haak
I think we’ve seen a little bit downward pressure on our own website because certainly, that we’ve seen a big price decrease on those competitive agencies. This year has increased, I don’t want to give a specific number, but we’ve seen a change. They are a more viable option right now, given the price cuts they took, eight or nine months ago I guess now. Kevin Christy - UBS: So you combat that through frequent flyer, or are this something that you think is sustainable because it’s significantly more costly I imagine to be getting nose bookings than getting your website directly?
Bob Fornaro
It’s something we will address going forward with our destination agreement. There are changes in technology and some other things that we want to keep getting more efficiencies along those lines.
Arne Haak
It is one other thing you have also to consider, and take the West Coast as an example, where we have a very, very small presence. I mean, we have very low name recognition. You have to look at, again being in other distribution networks and it actually provides a vehicle for us that we could not gain on our own because. Again we are a very, very small player in many markets in the West Coast. So again, it plays a role and so it does cost a little bit more, but at the same time, we’re not doing any advertising out there. So you got to look at certain markets as somewhat different. It provides some unique reach in the Western third of the country that we could not get otherwise on our www.airtran.com. Kevin Christy - UBS: So you structured your contracts, I know some contracts are structured in that way, I mean you don’t need them in Atlanta, you don’t need them in Orlando, but you do need in them in the west markets? Did your contracts offered different payments for different types of bookings?
Kevin Healy
Obviously, it can’t really get any specific to the distribution agreement.
Operator
Your next question comes from Dan McKenzie - Next Generation Equity Research. Dan McKenzie - Next Generation Equity Research: Just one house cleaning question, Arne you talked about hedges for 2010. I wonder if you can share what the average call option strike price is on crude hedges by quarter.
Arne Haak
Dan, the most recent, we kind of put out that dial fuel table that we did at your conference back in December, and it’s pretty similar to that in terms of what we’ve done by quarter, so we won’t go through it here, but it’s pretty similar. Essentially, what the portfolio does, the combination is that the benefits begins this is before their premium costs begin around 60. When you added in the benefits, you’ll see that it essentially keeps us in a range of between 60 and low 80s on crude oil. Is where it keeps us in the event that there is a spike in fuel prices? Dan McKenzie - Next Generation Equity Research: Another question I guess maybe for Bob or Kevin, looking at competitive capacity headwinds from Delta and Southwest, it looks like they are adding some capacity into the marks where you folks fly. I was wondering if you could provide some historical context about the capacity headwinds today versus what you’ve seen historically say over the last maybe five or eight years or so. Is it worse today? Is it above the same today? Any kind of perspective you could share would be helpful.
Bob Fornaro
I think regarding the capacity with Delta, it does the same in last, so it has been intense and it really hasn’t changed, if you look at Delta’s Atlanta capacity, when they made pull backs two years ago, a lot of that was a non-AirTran markets and vary a little in head to head markets, so that’s growing. That really hasn’t changed we are not counting on it to change. We don’t expect it to the change. Again it’s just if they’re strongest market and they’ve decided to compete vigorously. Again that’s part of the game in Atlanta. Over the years, we’ve done pretty well at it and so again what we’re used to it. I think in terms of looking at southwest, I think probably the biggest change is really in Boston Baltimore, where there’s been a lot of opportunity by them and Jet Blue. So there’s a little bit more overlap in both, but to some degrees, some of those additions are this is that we’ve made is as well, I think we’re fairly unique. There’s not many airlines that have gone into Southwest backyard over the past decade and added 55 departures or so that we have Baltimore. There’s always evidence with Southwest, but the bulk of it revolves around Baltimore and some of their new additions in Milwaukee. Milwaukee is working very well and we’re pretty happy with what’s going on in Baltimore again all the way back to 2002. Dan McKenzie - Next Generation Equity Research: I guess my final question, Bob, you mentioned the AirTran product appealing to the business traveler in Milwaukee and I know that you’ve already talked about this so at the risk of kicking the dead horse here. I wonder if there’s any kind of stats you can share what you are seeing about specifically or perhaps any marketing initiatives? I guess what I’m getting at as you think about the revenue pie from there business traveler in Milwaukee, where are you at now and where would you like to be, and what helps you get there? Is it the network, is it some flights to cities where Midwest doesn’t currently fly. If there’s any other kind of perspective you can share along those lines that would be helpful.
Bob Fornaro
I’m not sure that there is a number that I can give you right now that we’re measuring against per say. We’ll measure a number of different things in terms of certainly brand awareness and favorability ratings and other things like that. We don’t going to spend a hot lot of time on market share itself. If we look at the Milwaukee network, we’re in to the 18 of the top 20 O&D markets from the city. So you’re looking at the success of key business routes like New York, Boston, DCA, as indicators and generally speaking there is some more anecdotal and some other, but we’ve done a lot I think in the last couple of years to reposition our company and position our company. We’ve been very consistent in the growth. We’ve done everything that we said we were going to do in Milwaukee and we think that has paid off for us and we feel like 2010 would be a good year up there.
Steve Rossum
In terms what have we are doing, again, we didn’t necessarily add a lot of new capacity this winter, but what we did was we kept a lot of capacity in that we added in the summer. So, numbers of these routes are going through their first wind and business cold weather destinations normally the winter stops. You have to go through a couple of these cycles before these routes begin to pay off. We’ve seen, and we are actually seeing a lot of improvement, again, we’ve been, there we’ve been working add it for a couple of years and again I think it clearly Midwest does not have the following, anywhere near the following that it had a couple of years ago. It’s changed very, very fast, there are a number of things that you can’t keep but if you’re in the community you would see a really big footprint that we made within the community. That has really helped us again, really kind of positioned ourselves then would probably take a visit or spending sometime there. So we feel pretty good about it and like I said, I’m not sure what public plans are there’s a lot of a change going on up there, but I think at some point in time you will see this market share count one way or the other and I think right now we think the things that we’ve been doing have been working and so we like the pace of change and like I said we will expect to have some more growth sometime this summer as well.
Operator
Your next question comes from Helane Becker - Jesup & Lamont. Helane Becker - Jesup & Lamont: So, most of my questions have actually have been asked or answered. I just have two unrelated questions. One, on the WiFi so like my cell phone has WiFi capability. Does that mean I’m going to be able to use my phone in flight?
Bob Fornaro
You can use the WiFi capability on your phone for internet male and other things like that but not for a phone call itself. Helane Becker - Jesup & Lamont: Then unrelated to that obviously, on the salary line, so can you just update us where you stand with your labor agreements, number one and number two the 11% increase in the fourth quarter was greater than the full year average. Were there true ups and accruals in the quarter that we should be aware of?
Arne Haak
We are getting a financial number. We can give you an update on labor. We maybe where that we reached a new agreement with the mechanics in October of last year, right now we have open agreements with this batch of flight attendants and the pilots. I think if the pace of negotiations with this batch is quick in the next few months, we have a lot of negotiations set with the flight attendants and that’s moving along and after a long period of a little progress with the pilots we’ve actually made our making quite a bit of progress with the pilot group right now. I don’t want to go into specifics of the negotiations, but I think the trend is positive and sometime this year we are going to get a fair deal for both parties.
Bob Fornaro
Helane, on the unit cost question, there were no unusual items in terms of accruals. I think it just tends to be the natural seasonality of how our business moves comes from the summer to the fourth quarter. It’s what happened last and it happened again this year as well.
Operator
Your next question comes from Steve O’Hara - Sidoti. Steve O’Hara - Sidoti: You were talking about the unit cost kind of being the key and being the leader in the industry. I know there going to be on the upswing this year, a lot of that’s due to maintenance, but I guess you look at that as more of an absolute number of where you want to be or as more of a spread versus the industry?
Bob Fornaro
I think you want to look at it really both ways. We’ve had a pretty good spread versus the industry, but that can create a situation where you get two comfortable. That’s the industry today and I think when you go out and think about it, in the absolute number it comes very, very important because things in the industry will change, and over the years within this industry, we’ve seen a change in leadership. Orlando was an example, which is a very strong market for us, and for a few other carriers, the top carrier on this market has changed over several decades and a lot of it has to do with the absolute cost structure. So I think both of them are important at the end of the day because if our costs get out of line ultimately it provides an opportunity for somebody else in the marketplace. I think you have to keep an eye on both of them. In the very, very near term, I think difference first as the legacy carriers and I think Southwest is even more important, but in the long term the absolute cost is the driver.
Arne Haak
This is Arne, and just to follow on Bob’s remarks, we always have to be mindful that there’s always been somebody that comes in who is younger and tries to have a lower cost structure and I think we’re very unique in that, we have a cost structure. If you look at the competitive landscape that we face, we successfully compete with the words largest carrier in Atlanta. We can successfully compete with the words largest low cost airline in both Orlando and Baltimore and even a start up airline like legion airline that it’s coming into central Florida. We can compete very, very effectively because we have been disciplined on our cost structure. As Bob said, we can’t lose side of it. This is what, there’s more correlation in this business to having good unit costs than there is to having size or where you are on the S-curve and that’s what we have to remain absolutely focused on as we go forward. Steve O’Hara - Sidoti: Turning to the tax situation just kind of a modeling question for 2010, I mean still assuming a very little tax situation this year?
Bob Fornaro
For the first quarter there will be no, we don’t foresee ourselves accruing taxes. Potentially it could happen later on in the year. I think it’s too early to say exactly, where we think it’s going to depends a lot on revenue and fuel. As we get clearer look at it, we’ll revise our guidance if necessary. Steve O’Hara - Sidoti: Then lastly, or quickly if you jump, if you were touched on this I apologize, but in terms of where the booking curve has it been talking about those accelerating trends, I mean do you see, I mean has the booking curve opened up kind of to where it used to be or is it still kind of compressed?
Bob Fornaro
It’s one of those interesting things when you look at the curves right now on a year-over-year basis. They’re very, very strong, but part of that is the approach last year with anticipating a weakening economy. We approach this year is anticipating a much stronger, when we look at it versus 2008, it’s very good, both in terms of volume and average fares. So it’s encouraging and the question is “How much it can improve going through the year?
Operator
Your next question comes from Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners. Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners: Just one more quick, lit it in on costs for 2010. You talk about your full year costs being up 3% to 4%. You said if I remember right about half of that is due to maintenance and revenue related. Can you give us a little further beyond those two items, what might be the next couple items that where we should from models and wherever else are look into watch for trends?
Bob Fornaro
Yes, for the most part salaries is one of the areas, when everyone at AirTran will have an increase either seniority increases on the salaries, there’s no growth. So a salary is a bigger line, the benefit line obviously as a part of that is also a challenge with the cost of healthcare. You’re seeing above average growth there as well. In terms of what it costs for to us provide our employees benefits. I think probably the last area which is a bit difficult for a couple of years is what’s going on in a number of the stages. There’s very a little relationship between on airplane activity and departures and some of the fees charged at the airplanes. So I think you may have heard a lot of carriers complain about that. We get very concerned about new projects at airplanes that provide very little function. So that one should been going on for a couple of years and there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot slowing it down. Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners: Some of the guys have had particular problems, because volumes of departures or total activity at some of the airports have shrunk so much. As I think about your airports, it seems like for the last year or so, things like Atlanta or Orlando those seems to have not been shrinking in terms of activity levels. Is that a reasonable way to think about it and at Milwaukee, it would appear that I mean as a total activity there is not shrinking. I mean, I’m just kind of…?
Bob Fornaro
Milwaukee and Orlando are actually pretty good. Again I’m saying a market like Dulles is very expensive. We’ll get more expensive, because of the trade coming on. I think in turns, what’s going to happen in Atlanta, I think you’re aware of Deltas new agreement with the City and we should have one soon. I think that’s going to keep Atlanta a low cost airport given the way. I think that’s really as far as well. If you go look around a lot of other places, where you see 10% less capacity and overall costs go up, a couple percent that drives a lot of cost. Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners: In your four biggest airports or five biggest airplanes, those haven’t been airports where total activity is actually dropped that much as compared to what some of the other guys.
Bob Fornaro
We’re seeing some substantial increases in Baltimore this year and some of that’s relates to some new projects and some I guess some issues that we had in the past where in theory we were under charge I think and now they are now putting the full charges out there, costs there’s some very major construction going on, I think our costs are going up 20%, 25% for departure, it’s a pretty big number there.
Operator
Your final question comes from Gary Chase - Barclays Capital. Gary Chase - Barclays Capital: Just one quick one on hedging, Arne, just wondering, is there a way to generalize about the cost of your hedging program the way you’re looking at it. I mean, as you move away from a lot of the collars or the tighter collars or cashless collars that you used to do. We’re seeing more option premium expense show up in fuel lines. So I’m wondering, if there’s a way for us to think, what it costs you per gallon that you’re hedged to construct a hedge book the way it is, because it feels like that’s going to add $0.05 to $0.07 per gallon to fuel costs above and beyond what it would have been say over the last several years.
Arne Haak
I don’t think we want to communicate kind of what our targets are, or what we are prepared to spend. I think what we look at, I think you kind of think of it like an insurance it’s an insurance policy around your fuel. The problem we have and if you’ve been following you’ll see Bob is very vocal and how he speaks about the volatility and how destructive it is to potential our transportation infrastructure. Because, it really makes it much, much harder for to us manage this risk and it’s much more expensive than it was say three, four year ago, because of all the volatility in the oil markets, but you’re thinking about it the right way. We tend to look at it, we should think about a certain portion of a fuel price on a per gallon basis that we are going to use that to protect our fuel budget and then we have to figure out the best way to do it, but you look at kind of what Southwest has done, some very different things. I think it really highlights, it’s a real challenge to go out more than a year or two because of the volatility to have options over prices and to commit to a swap you’ve seen what happens with that as well. So I think it is a challenge for our company but you’re thinking about it the right way we are not going to give you any kind of specific number that we are targeting as to what we are going to send. Gary Chase - Barclays Capital: I guess we can back into it. Could you remind us I guess what the differentials between spot and P&L fuel, are you just quickly.
Bob Fornaro
I guess if you look at this year and it’s going to depends on how well do you when you’re hedging. This year in the fourth quarter it really didn’t cost us anything. Our old hedges then we have left over from 2008 costs us money. Our new hedges this year saves us money and net it was about breakeven on hedge in the fourth quarter.
Operator
This concludes the question-and-answer session. At this time I would like to turn the conference back over to you, Bob Fornaro for any additional or closing comments.
Bob Fornaro
I would like to thank everyone for joining us on the call this morning. A year ago not many people would have been about four consecutive quarters of profitability or record annual earnings. This has been a year that everyone at AirTran should be proud of. Now looking forward, we are encouraged by the recent trend in yield improvements, but are certainly mindful of the continued fuel price volatility. AirTran successfully stepped up to many changes over the last decade and each case we’ve emerged as a stronger, more vibrant carrier. I’m confident that we have the company well-positioned for the year ahead. Thank you for your time today and we look forward to talking to you in April. Have a great day.
Operator
This does conclude your conference. We thank you for your participation.