JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
Published at 2009-01-29 16:49:18
David Barger – Chief Executive Officer Edward Barnes – Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
Mike Linenberg – Merrill Lynch William Green – Morgan Stanley Jamie Baker – J.P. Morgan Gary Chase – Barclays Capital Raymond Neidl – Calyon Securities Inc. Kevin Crissey – UBS Duane Pfenningworth – Raymond James & Associates Michael Derchin – Ftn Midwest Securities Corp. Helane Becker – Jesup & Lamont Securities Corporation Bill Mastoris – Broadpoint Capital
Welcome to JetBlue Airways Corporation's fourth quarter and full year 2008 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. We have on the call today Dave Barger, JetBlue's CEO, and Ed Barnes, JetBlue's CFO. As a reminder, this morning's call includes forward-looking statements about future events. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements due to many factors, and therefore, investors should not place undue reliance on these statements. For additional information concerning factors that could cause results to differ from the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's annual and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also references non-GAAP results. You can find the reconciliation of those non-GAAP results in JetBlue's earnings press release on the investor relations section of the company's Web site at jetblue.com. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Dave Barger, please go ahead sir.
Thank you, [Dawn]. Good morning everyone and thank you all for joining us today. This morning we reported a pre-tax loss of $76 million for 2008. These results include the impact of a $53 million non-cash charge associated with the valuation of our auction rate securities. Excluding this special charge, JetBlue reported a pre-tax loss of $23 million for the year. It would be an understatement to say that 2008 was a challenging year, as record fuel prices transformed the industry landscape. While we're never happy to report a loss, given that our 2008 fuel expense increased $400 million compared to 2007, I truly believe our team did an excellent job. In response to record high fuel prices and signs of economic softening, we took quick and decisive action on multiple fronts. We aggressively managed our capacity through aircraft sales, deferrals, and leases, and reduced our capital commitments. We also made additional capacity reductions through a combination of aircraft gauge adjustments and lower utilization. As a result, we were able to manage to negative capacity growth through both the third and fourth quarters, a first in JetBlue's history These capacity reductions help us gain more pricing traction. Our average fare increased about 13% in 2008, driving the year-over-year PRASM increase of 14%. In addition, we benefited from our heightened focus on ancillary revenues, which grew almost 90% year-over-year to roughly $350 million in 2008, representing about 10% of our total revenue. Despite the turmoil in the financial markets, we completed several significant financing transactions in 2008, which along with cash from operations enabled us to address an extraordinary year of both mandatory and voluntary debt payments. I could not be more pleased with our team of 11,500 crew members. Let me take this opportunity to thank our crew members for their continued hard work and dedication. It's our unique culture and collaborative efforts, particularly in demanding periods like 2008, that truly differentiate JetBlue from the competition. Let's turn now to our financial results for the fourth quarter, which we announced this morning. For the quarter, we reported pre-tax income of $4 million, excluding special items. Our fourth quarter and full year results were negatively impacted by the $53 million non-cash accounting charge related to our auction rate securities, which Ed will discuss in more detail. On a GAAP basis, we recorded a pre-tax loss of $49 million for the quarter. We reported an operating margin of 6% as unit revenues continued to show solid growth during the quarter. Passenger revenue per available seat mile grew 15% year-over-year and RASM gained over 18% on the year-over-year basis. Despite record revenues, fuel continued to be a challenge as CASM increased 16% year-over-year. As we begin 2009, lower fuel prices are already significantly improving operating margins and helping to improve liquidity. The softening demand environment, as other carriers have reported, presents new challenges. Fortunately, JetBlue continues to take the necessary steps that we believe will enable us to not only meet our near term challenges, but also build for the future and deliver the results our shareholders and customers expect. The ability to generate free cash flow on a long-term sustainable basis, is an important driver of value on liquidity preservation. Our continued focus on three areas, capacity rationalization, revenue maximization, and rigorous cost control, will help move us toward our goal of positive free cash flow. In addition, we have taken steps to reduce our capital expenditures, another critical component of the path to positive free cash flow. We've slowed our growth considerably over the past few years and our recent fleet plan adjustments will help keep aircraft capital spending at modest levels in 2009. Last year we deferred 37 Airbus A320 deliveries and 10 EMBRAER 190 deliveries. As a result of these deferrals, we expect only $315 million in aircraft capital expenditures during 2009, compared to $625 million in 2008. While we are comfortable with our aircraft delivery schedule over the next few years, we intend to continue to look for additional opportunities to sell used aircraft, retire at higher priced debt and enhance liquidity in the process. During the fourth quarter, we released one of our aircraft buyers from their obligation to purchase two EMBRAER 190s they had previously agreed to purchase in February. We completed the sale of two other EMBRAER 190s to this buyer, earlier this month. Based on these aircraft sales and an A320 lease return later in the year, we planned net capacity additions of two A320s and six E190s in 2009, significantly fewer aircraft than in prior years. As previously announced, we have secured financing for all of our 2009 aircraft deliveries. Given the uncertainties of the economy, we are committed to maintaining a conservative approach to capacity. For the first quarter, we expect our capacity to be down 5 to 7% year-over-year, and we expect our capacity to be down 0 and 2% for the full year. Slower growth affords us the opportunity to focus on strengthening our core network, including New York, Boston, Florida, and the west coast. Our new terminal at JFK, T-5 has been open and running smoothly for over three months. We successfully managed heavy passenger loads over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. We believe we have a tremendous advantage being based in the largest travel market in the world, and our new terminal gives us the opportunity to provide the level of service JetBlue customers deserve, as well as to showcase the strength of our brand. We intend to continue to leverage our presence in New York as the largest carrier at JFK, while continuing to diversify our network and add in strategic routes. As you'll recall, we announced plans to serve Los Angeles International Airport, LAX, about a year ago, and subsequently deferred the start of service in light of record high fuel prices. Today we are pleased to announce new non-stop service from LAX, with two daily flights from both New York and Boston, beginning in June. At the same time, we continue to reallocate our transcon capacity to profitable routes in the Caribbean. Overall, our transcon capacity will be down roughly 30% in the first quarter year-over-year, and up 40% in the Caribbean. Our Caribbean markets tend to mature very quickly, from both P&L and cash perspective. We remain excited about our Caribbean and international expansion. To that end, I'm also pleased to announce today that we have applied for government approval to serve Montego Bay, Jamaica, from New York, beginning in May. In addition to New York and Boston, we are expanding from Florida into the Caribbean. In the Spring, we plan to move from four gates to seven continuous gates at Fort Lauderdale Hollywood Airport, which we believe will better position us for more international growth. We expect to begin service from Fort Lauderdale Hollywood to Santo Domingo and Cancun in June. We're also expanding from Orlando South. In fact this afternoon, for instance, we begin a new chapter in JetBlue's history with the launch of our first flight to South America, with daily service between Orlando and Bogota, Columbia. Turning now to revenue, as we've previously discussed, leisure demand for air travel was remarkably resilient through most of 2008, but we saw the demand environment weaken at the end of October. Fortunately, the capacity actions we took earlier in the year helped give us pricing traction. Our capacity was down 11% during the month of October and competitive capacity in our markets was down almost 10% year over year, which helped drive a 28% increase in PRASM during October. November revenue performance, however, did not build as strongly as expected and we revised our revenue guidance downward at the beginning of December. Bookings for December subsequently picked up, particularly close in bookings around the holidays. Capacity reductions helped to boast yields and we finished the month with an average fare of $151, our highest monthly average fare ever. This helped drive our fourth quarter PRASM increase of 15%, which was once again, among the best in the industry. A reallocation of capacity from transcon markets to shorter haul markets into the Caribbean with traditionally stronger yields had a positive impact on PRASM. Unit revenue improvements during the quarter were particularly strong in the Caribbean, even as we continued to add significant ASMs to that region. In fact 16% of our ASMs where in the Caribbean in the fourth quarter, up over 35 % compared to the fourth quarter of 2007, and PRASM increased over 30 %. PRASM improvements have also been driven by our increasingly tactical approach to capacity management. Our high aircraft utilization rates allow us the flexibility to reduce utilization and improve our flight schedule. We believe that having the right flights at the right times of day has helped us attract higher yielding customers. We also continue to diversify our product to attract higher yielding travelers and generate new revenue streams. We believe we have a unique value proposition and we are very respectful of our relationship with our customers. That said, there are certain aspects of our product that our customers are willing to pay a premium. For example, last March we launched our even more legroom product. EML generated about $45 million in additional revenues in 2008, and we expect EML will generate more than $60 million of revenue in 2009. We continue to develop new products and services that customers value, while making it easier for customers to purchase these products. For example, we recently enhanced airport kiosk functionality to provide customers with the option to purchase an EML seat upgrade when they check in at the airport. We also began selling travel insurance in the booking flow on our website, enabling customers to add this option to their ticket purchase. In 2009 we plan to move other products to the booking flow to facilitate customer transactions, which we believe should significantly improve conversion rates. Looking ahead to the first quarter, we are cautiously optimistic. While January is traditionally a trough travel period as holiday traffic subsides, bookings have been solid throughout the month. In addition, we benefited from more holiday return days at the beginning of the month. We expect double-digit PRASM growth in January on a year-over-year basis. Similar to what other carriers have reported, our February and March bookings are significantly lower than January. In March, year-over-year comparisons will be negatively impacted by the shift of the Easter Holiday, to April. Our forward booking curve is moved closer to departure as customers have been deferring purchase decisions. A shorter booking window makes our forecast more difficult to predict. That said, we are encouraged by the strength in yields we are seeing as capacity reductions by both JetBlue and other carriers continue to help offset weakness in the demand environment. While sale activity during December and January has been steady, fair levels have generally been equal to or greater than previous year's levels, which helps improve yields. In addition, we are somewhat less exposed to declines in premium business traffic, than some of our competitors. As we look ahead, through the end of the quarter there's tremendous uncertainly as to volatility in our bookings, and a tighter booking window makes it more difficult to offer meaning guidance. We currently expect our year-over-year PRASM growth for the first quarter to be between 2% and 4%, and between 1% and 4% for the full year. Our continued focus on ancillary revenues, which we expect to increase by about 30% year-over-year in 2009, should help drive RASM improvements. We expect RASM to increase on a year-over-year basis between 5% and 7% in the first quarter, and between 3% and 6% for the full year. We continue to watch the revenue environment and the economic conditions very closely. As we have done in the past, we intend to act quickly to make network adjustments as appropriate. Turning now to cost, we believe lower fuel cost will provide significant savings to us and help improve cash flow in 2009. Vigilant control over non-fuel operating expenses and capital spending is also necessary to reach our goal of free cash flow. As always cost is a top priority for us at the same time, however we'll continue to invest in our future and to invest in our customer experience. In 2009 we plan to begin the process of replacing our reservation system, which is scheduled for implantation in 2010. The new system, which will be more robust with more sophisticated applications, we believe, will drive a significant improvement in customer satisfaction, as well as revenue opportunities. In closing, I'd like to thank our crewmembers and shareholders for their support. We're committed to driving positive free cash flow in 2009, which means we'll continue our focus on capacity rationalization, revenue growth, cost discipline and other liquidity enhancing initiatives. Despite the challenges facing the airline industry we are optimistic about the future. With that, it is my pleasure to turn it over to Ed Barnes for a more detailed review of our financial performance during the quarter and year.
Thanks Dave, good morning, and again, thank you all for joining us today. 2008 was a successful year for JetBlue. Ahead of escalated fuel and a weakening economy we took actions to strengthen our financial position and mitigate risk. We paid down an extraordinary amount of debt and completed several significant financing transactions despite tough credit markets. We ended the year with $561 million in cash and cash equivalence. In addition we have about $260 million in student loan related auction rate securities, that of impairment losses. Given that our fuel expense increased over $400 million in 2008, and we paid down almost $700 million in debt, I am very pleased with our liquidity position. I'd also like to note that the $700 million in debt repayments does not include the redemption of $76 million of our 5.5% convertible notes, which reduced our debt levels without requiring the use of cash. Turning to the auction rate securities situation, as many of you know, auctions of these securities began to fail in February. Substantially all of the securities we hold are guaranteed by the U.S. Government, and continue to provide superior yields. As we previously disclosed we acquire these securities from Smith Barney and UBS. In 2008 we monetized the Smith Barney portion with a $110 million line of credit from Citigroup. We monetized the balance of our auction rate securities with a $53 million loan from UBS. The proceeds of all transactions are included in our cash balance as of December 31st. Due to continuing ill liquidity in the auction rate security market, we recorded a $67 million loss to reflect another than temporary decline in the value of our auction rate securities during the fourth quarter. Accordingly our auction rate securities, which have a par value of $311 million, were written down to an estimated fair value of $244 million. Separately, UBS granted JetBlue a put right, permitting us to sell auction rate securities with a par value of $85 million, at their full par value in 2010, resulting in a $14 million offsetting gain during the fourth quarter. As a result, the impairment charge, none of the gain on the put right, was $53 million for the fourth quarter and the full year. As noted in our press release, we're still evaluating the tax treatment of the impairment charge. Despite the turmoil in the financial markets, our team was very focused on liquidity enhancing initiatives throughout the year. Aircraft sales provided a steady source of liquidity, and also helped us reduce our net debt. In 2008 we generated cash proceeds of about $300 million from the sales of aircraft, and paid down about $200 million in debt, resulting in $100 million of positive cash flow. We also recorded a P&L gain of $23 million in connection with these aircraft sale activities. Looking ahead to 2009, we plan to continue to take a conservative approach to capacity, reflecting our focus on generating positive free cash flow and our commitment to grow responsibly in this environment. We are comfortable with our reduced delivery schedule for the next three years, but at the same time we believe our flexible fleet plan, including the availability of aircraft purchase options, will allow us to quickly respond to improved market conditions. Before turning to the fourth quarter results, I'd like to address our fuel-hedging program, which has had a significant impact on our liquidity position. We view fuel hedging as an important form of insurance against market volatility. Our fuel-hedging program generated approximately $170 million in cash gains between 2003 and 2007. Even including the impact of our 2009 fuel contracts, our program has generated about $40 million in savings since its inception. As is the case with other carriers, we had to post cash collateral with our fuel hedge counter parties, beginning in the third quarter of last year, as the drop in fuel prices drove losses on hedges put into place earlier in the year. Due to the precipitous decline in fuel and the potential impact on our liquidity position, we subsequently suspend our fuel-hedging program. Specifically in October we began selling swap contracts to the same fuel hedge counter parties, covering most of our fourth quarter 2008 swap contracts, and all of our 2009 swap contracts, effectively capping losses related to further oil price declines. At the end of December, we had posted $117 million in cash collateral related to our 2009 contracts, most of which will burn off by the second quarter of 2009, as those contracts settle. We have essentially prepaid the underwater portions of our hedge portfolio, and therefore we expect improved cash flow from lower fuel prices as we move forward into 2009. While fuel hedge losses had a negative impact on our cost during the fourth quarter, as we recorded $58 million in fuel hedge losses, that impact is clearly short term. We have hedged approximately 8% of our projected fuel consumption for 2009. To provide some visibility with respect to the impact of the remaining 8% hedge position, our 2009 fuel price as of January 23rd is estimated to be $1.99 per gallon, excluding taxes, which is about $0.27 higher than our unhedged market price on that today. We believe it is prudent not to hedge in the short term so that we can take full advantage of lower fuel costs. Given the current economic environment, we view fuel as a natural hedge as declining demand, and we are in the process of evaluating our fuel hedging strategy going forward. That said we’re prepared to act as we have done in the past as opportunities arise or markets shift. Turning now to a more detailed look at the fourth quarter results. While the spot price of fuel has decreased substantially since its peek in July, fuel continues to be Jet Blues biggest single cost item. Our fuel price for the fourth quarter was $2.67 per gallon, including the impact of hedges. This represents an increase of 14% over the fourth quarter of 2007. That said, we continue to benefit from having one of the youngest and most fuel efficient fleets in the industry with an average age of about three and a half years. Our crew member focus fuel conservation initiatives has also continued to pay off. In 2008 our gallons of fuel consumed per block hour declined roughly 4% compared to 2006. Excluding fuel, our fourth quarter unit costs rose by 17% year-over-year which was in line with expectations. The majority of this year-over-year increase can be attributed to our 7.4% capacity reduction during the fourth quarter. In addition, our transcon ASM reductions resulted in shorter average stage length for the fourth quarter, which also had a significant impact on our unit costs. Adjusting for the 5% decrease in our stage length during the fourth quarter in keeping ASMs flat, our year over year increase in axial CASM during the fourth quarter was about 7%. Let me highlight a few of the line items. Salaries, wages, and benefits increased 13% per ASM on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to pay increases we implemented during the first quarter of 2008. In addition our no furlough policy has pressured our unit costs. However, we believe our commitment to a no furlough policy differentiates Jet Blue from the industry and provides a solid foundation for our crew member morale and thus increase share holder value over the long term. Our maintenance expense increased about 12% on a unit cost basis during the fourth quarter, due mainly to the gradual ageing of our fleet which results in additional repairs. Many of our E190s are beginning to undergo heavy maintenance seat checks for the first time, which accounts for a large portion of the year-over-year increase. Depreciation expense increased 40% year-over-year during the fourth quarter on a unit cost basis. This increase was driven in part by our move to Terminal 5 at JFK. As you’ll recall we are considered to be the owner of Terminal 5 for accounting purposes and the T-5 facility run is reflected in the depreciation line rather than in landing fees and other lines. In addition, we mortgaged most of our 2008 air traffic deliveries and therefore a larger percentage of our fleet is owned, which increased depreciation expense. Landing fees and other rents increased 17% on a unit cost basis yea- over-year as we continue to experience airport cost pressures as the industry reduces capacity. In addition we had more departures spread over fewer ASMs on a year-over-year basis, which impacted our airport costs during the fourth quarter. With regard to CapEx, we purchased three A320s and one E190 that were debt financed during the fourth quarter. Our non-aircraft CapEx for the fourth quarter was approximately $10 million and approximately $60 million for the full year. Now, turning to the balance sheet. Our scheduled principal payments from debt and capital leases are expected to be about $30 million for the first quarter and $150 million for the full year, significantly lower than our 2008 scheduled debt maturity of approximately $400 million. Lower fuel prices will help bolster liquidity and improve cash flow, as we prefunded a portion of our 2009 fuel expense in 2008. We expect to end the year with cash as percentage of trailing 12 month revenue in the same range as we ended 2008. When we fill comfortable with our current cash position, especially in light of our slower growth plans and lower fuel prices, we are committed to continue vigilance and driving additional balance sheet per units going forward Assuming market conditions remain the same, we believe that it is highly likely that in 2009 for the first time we will generate positive free cash flow. Looking ahead at the first quarter and full year we will have detailed guidance in our investor update 2008 [K] and posted on our website later today. Let me share a few of the highlights. We expect first quarter ASMs to decline between 5 and 7% year-over-year and ASMs for the full year to decline between 0 and 2%. We believe the capacity reductions will help drive revenue improvements. But as Dave said, we are very cautious about the demand environment in light of the current economic environment outlook. Given the uncertainty and unlimited visibility we have it is difficult for us to provide meaningful revenue guidance. That said, we currently expect our year-over-year PRASM growth for the first quarter to be between – to be up between 2 and 4% and between 1 and 4% for the full year. We expect RASM to increase between 5 and 7% for the first quarter and 3 to 6% for the full year. For the first quarter 2009, we expect our CASM to be up between 0 and 2% and for the full year we expect CASM to be down between 5 and 7%. We expect our fuel costs per gallon in the first quarter to be $2.07, which includes the impact of fuel hedging. For the full year we are assuming a fuel price of $1.99, including the impact of hedges. These numbers are based on the forward heating oil curve, as of January 23rd. We recognize that one of the best ways to generate free cash flow on a long term basis – on a long term sustainable, is by increasing unit revenue and decreasing the related costs. We continue to focus on improving our costs structure and looking for ways to work more efficiently. As we look into 2009 there are several significant items impacting our axial CASMs. First, as we reduce capacity, especially in transcon markets and we continue to face near term unit cost pressures as it takes more time to extract costs than to reduce ASMs, less transcon flying will drive shorter stage length which we expect to decrease roughly 6% next year. Second, we expect to generate a profit next year which will increase profit sharing expense. Third, without any future aircraft sale plans for 2009, we don’t expect to reap the same P&L benefit from aircraft sales in 2009 compared to 2008. Adjusting for these three items, stage length, profit sharing, and aircraft [beings], we expect our CASMs, including fuel, to be up about 4 to 5% year-over-year in 2009. Finally, with regard to CapEx, we estimate capital expenditures to be roughly $500 million in 2009. This includes $315 million in aircraft related expenditures which excludes to E190s that we sold in January and $100 million related to [live TV]. Lower CapEx is critical to our goal generating positive free cash flow. However, we need to continue to make appropriate investments in our brand, culture, and technology to ensure we’re well positioned to drive future revenue and future growth. For example, as Dave mentioned, we will begin the process of replacing our reservation system in 2009. In closing, I would like to thank our crew members for all of their hard work. We are confident that we have the tools necessary to derive a positive free cash flow in 2009. While we face a challenging revenue environment as we enter 2009, we are well positioned. We have a very manageable aircraft delivery schedule, committed financing in place, moderate debt obligations, and most importantly, a team of outstanding crew members and with that we’re happy to take your questions.
Thank you, now we will begin the 30 minute question and answer session for investors and analysts. We would like to ask everyone to please limit themselves to one or two questions with a brief follow up so that we may accommodate as many as possible. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mike Linenberg – Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead. Mike Linenberg – Merrill Lynch: Yes, two questions here. Ed, you talked about no aircraft gains in 2009 and I know there were the two 190s in January. Did that show up in the fourth quarter and if so what was it in the fourth quarter and then could you actually tell us what the total aircraft gain amount was for 2008?
Yes, thanks Mike. The total aircraft gain for 2008 was $23 million. The sales that took place in the first quarter did not result in a gain. They were effectively or potentially a deferral. It was something that was coordinated through Embry EMBRAER; in lieu of a deferral we sold the aircraft at essentially no gain. Mike Linenberg – Merrill Lynch: My second question, you know, Dave, you made some comments about where capacity was in the Caribbean in the first quarter, how much it was up versus transcon. Can you give us a breakout of the composition of ASMs in the March quarter of ’09 and maybe how that compared to the March quarter of ’08, just giving, not just Caribbean and transcon, but all of your regions so we can just see how the geographic mix has shifted?
Yes, Mike, it, as we move into '09, I think it's just fair to say that we’re going to continue to expand down into the Caribbean, for example, that Montego Bay announcement as we gave earlier this year. I mean, roughly, as we take a look at the year, the transcons still on a year-over-year basis, is still into the 30% range. As we move into the – Caribbean international, by the way, because we also categorize international liquidity in Mexico, Central America, as well as South America, Bermuda, as an example as well, starts to look like 20% of the capacity and a large part of the capacity up and down from the northeast down to Florida obviously, and the percent of short haul that we have, whether it’s in the Northeast or whether it’s out on the west coast. So to give you a feel for really, how we’re allocating ASMs and over the course of the year we’re looking something that looks like approximately 86% of the ASMs on the 320 fleet and 14% of ASMs on the 190 fleet. Mike Linenberg – Merrill Lynch: All right, that’s helpful. Thank you.
Our next question comes from William Green – Morgan Stanley. William Green – Morgan Stanley: I’m wondering if we can just spend a little bit of time on the CASM guidance again. I think in the first quarter you said 11 to 13% up and then 10 to 12% for the full year. But if I understand your capacity guidance you’re accelerating that as well. So I think that would suggest that your ex-fuel inflation rate is accelerating through the year. Is that because of T-5 costs or what’s driving that growth?
No, I think that we are fairly constant on our costs throughout the year; T-5 doesn’t escalate through 2009. I think what you are probably seeing is how we’re managing really the trough periods through 2009. William Green – Morgan Stanley: Sorry, what does that mean managing the trough periods?
Well, we’re going to pull capacity up and down just related to when we think we can do profitable flying. The 2009 impact of profit sharing is going to be roughly $20 million, so that’s big component of that. William Green – Morgan Stanley: Okay. And then, you’ve also given full year PRASM so can you talk a little bit about how you see that being driven by the economy? So if we think about what your economic assumption must be that drives that number? How do you think things trough in the economy? Are you assuming sort of a second half rebound or how are you thinking about this?
Good morning, Bill. I think, from the standpoint of really building our plan this year, obviously we closed the year in December and into January a little bit of visibility, and not a great deal of visibility as move into the middle part of the year, but negative GDP, that’s going to be released, what, this coming Friday, I think the government or those in the media are suggesting we’re probably down 5% and that’s – we’ll see how they take a look at the first quarter. We’re assuming negative in the first quarter, same in the second quarter, and over the course of building up a plan, we were assuming somewhat of a rebound going into the back half of the year, Bill. But we’re really assuming just flat at best, as we move into the latter part of the year. I think what’s most significant is just the amount of capacity, the discipline that the industry – the restraint that is taking place as a result of the economy. So basically, the assumptions that we’re looking at with GDP that are driving our PRASM guidance for the year as noted previously. William Green – Morgan Stanley: That’s helpful. What’s your long term, or what do you think the right long term growth rate is?
I think it’s a, let me key on the word earn. In this whole theme of, really free cash flow, I think maybe exchanging the word right for, the right long term growth, to earning our right to grow longer term is probably something that looks like 5 to 10% ASMs. And clearly we’re not talking about that in 2009, but we – you start to take a look at the opportunity that the landscape that’s presented, I don’t like what we’re seeing down in international markets and we want to be prepared to seize upon that, but we really have to earn our right to do that. So as we look at 2010 and beyond the flexibility of our fleet order book, very much as a management team, we’d like to see something that looks like 5 to 10% growth. William Green – Morgan Stanley: And is there a threshold that defines what earn means?
Well, I certainly, from the standpoint of the strong balance sheet and free cash flow, Bill, and this is something that our company hasn’t seen in our history, and so people get much more surgical as move throughout the year but as Ed mentioned in his comments, this is, we’re really focused on the bottom line this year and free cash flow. So it’s, that’s really how we’re taking a look at 2009. I thought that 2009 would be bit more of a transitional year if you will, but I think in 2008 there were so many changes taking place, oil and now the economy, that it was much more of a foundational year for this airline and we’ll see how transitional we can make it in 2009 because of the economy and again earn our right to grow in 2010. William Green – Morgan Stanley: Thanks for all the time. Appreciate it.
Your next question comes from Jamie Baker – J P Morgan Jamie Baker – J.P. Morgan: Good morning, everybody. David, I’m curious if you’re actually beginning to see any increase in the number of bookings that come through the corporate channels, or if that’s something you’re hoping to see, even something strategic shifts that you’ve made. I know this question has been asked of other airlines, on other conference calls, I’m just curious how you’d actually identify if you are picking up any greater corporate share.
Yes, I'd characterize it, Jamie, more as – as we shift somewhat our commercial strategy and again it’s not losing sight of the strengths that we have and the brand. To your question, really we’re hopeful that we’ll start to see more from the standpoint of the commercial traveler. I’m really just delighted with [Robin Hayes] joining us as our Chief Commercial Officer from British Airways and we’ve had internal promotions as well, with [Martin St. George], [Scott Lawrence] and also [Rick Zinney], very much focused on this change to the [RES] system, and so, as we’re identifying, you know, corporate accounts, what used to be company blue, and we still have Company Blue in place, but, the ability to really move forward with that in 2009, really what you’re seeing in PRASM is more from the standpoint of we’re hopeful that our change in strategy will drive more of a corporate traveler way. I think it should help our trough period, and the announcements that we have made previously regarding Boston, just more frequency, is in alignment with just being more attractive to the business customer, it’s, we can’t be relevant if we’re only one or two flights a day on the market. Jamie Baker – J.P. Morgan: Okay, that makes sense. And second, I must have misunderstood; right before you went to the Q&A I caught reference to a 4 to 5% decline in axial CASM. I’m not sure if I heard that right since the earnings release is obviously suggesting axial CASM increases. Did I just mishear that statement?
I think you did. It was a 4 to 5% increase in axial CASM if you adjusted for stage length and profit sharing and-- Jamie Baker – J.P. Morgan: Got it. Okay. That makes sense; all right that does it for me, thanks.
Our next question comes from Gary Chase – Barclays Capital Gary Chase – Barclays Capital: Could I ask you to – I want you to take me back on a couple of things that I think Bill Green was asking you a second ago. You know, as you think about the first quarter RASM assumptions, particularly in light of what you said on, the double-digit January, presumably that means you’re going to be pretty flattish in the combination of February and March. It does feel like there is a little bit of pick up to get to, the full year guidance and at the same time there looks to be capacity growth implied in the second half, just looking at where you’re going to be in first quarter on ASMs and for the full year. So can you just, maybe, flush out for us a little bit about, what’s underneath that? Are there stage length issues? Is it the maturation of some of these Caribbean markets that you’re talking about? What is it that would drive us to a better outcome in the second half on growth, than what we’re seeing in the first quarter?
Yes, good morning, Gary. I think, first of all, even just sharing our thoughts on January, in the midst of this call, we want to be, again, transparent as possible and at the same time, with limited visibility. For example, we start to take a look at our booking curve into single-digit types of bookings that we have in place as late as the May timeframe going into the summer timeframe. I think we’re just being very, cautiously optimistic is the term that we would use, but it's – even with February and March, I mean with the headlines that you see in the media. I mean Monday, 71,000 jobs lost across the country. We're just being cautious along those lines, and we are truly seeing though a closer in booking window and we're still seeing strong bookings though and yields and have customers that are booking us over the course of the next 30 to 60 days. We saw that with January, we saw it in December as well, and I think from a standpoint of you really have a key thing here, the market maturity. It is wonderful from the standpoint of the visibility as we look at 2008, only opening two cities, was Puerto Plata and St. Martin into the Caribbean portfolio, to where this year-over-year build from the standpoint of same store sales and market maturity. That is really important, and certainly the second quarter with Easter as we move into the Summer timeframe, which is always strong for us, that's baked into the numbers as we take a look at the second half of the year. But I think as an airline perspective, and this is this commercial adjustment, we're really working hard to lessen the trough period and be more relevant to that business flyer. So all of the above then adds into how we're taking a look at the second half of the year. Gary Chase – Barclays Capital: Okay, also Ed, I also was a little distracted – we got a lot going on during the prepared remarks. I thought you said that you had waived some of the purchase obligations on a planned aircraft sale for E190s, did I hear that right?
We had two planned E190 sales in February of 2009. The counter party was unable to get financing for those aircrafts, which isn't surprising so we did release them from those obligations and plan to take those aircraft internally. Gary Chase – Barclays Capital: Does that change – I mean one of the key drivers of your ability to manage capacity through this, was the ability to monetize a relatively new and valuable aircraft fleet. Is this symbolic of what is to come? I mean is this one of the reasons you're growing fleet despite capacity reduction?
Well I think that it's one of the reasons that we decided earlier this year to defer a number of aircraft, because we sensed that there might be some softness in the resale market, but certainly we also concluded some purchases in December of this last year. So I think there still are sales to be had out there. I think what you're seeing in us retaining our aircraft is positioning ourselves for 2010 and 2011. So we're building some excess capacity within the airline, and I think we're being responsible about that, but we do want to be able to grow when the sky is clear.
We have Raymond Neidl – Calyon Securities Inc. Raymond Neidl – Calyon Securities Inc.: Yes, just a couple of general questions I want to clear up. One, is you didn't mention anything about your foreign partnerships. So I just wanted to get an update on that, particularly at Kennedy. And are you still dealing with Air Linguist and is the Air Linguist relationship with United doing some independent flying routes with them out of Washington going to any effect on what you might do with them in the future?
Let me start with Air Linguist and the relationship continues with Air Linguist over Kennedy, as well Boston, and we're also optimistic about Orlando in 2009, and so we turn this on in the first semester of 2008. We're very pleased with what we're seeing with the Air Linguist relationship, in the ability to really co-brand with Air Linguist and their advertising, our advertising and offer the world through our focus cities. With regard to Lufthansa, we look at the second semester as the commencement of our activity, where we'll start to flow traffic between the route systems, and the relationship with Lufthansa, as you look at their portfolio as well, whether it's Swiss, Austrian and, I mean the growing portfolio, carriers that also have operations at Kennedy, Boston, and what have you. Really excited about what that means into the later half of the year. It's not meaningful from the perspective of any revenue that's a bit baked into any of our guidance that we've given this year, and also I would like to just take the opportunity, it's not just commercial traffic it's the synergies of input with board members, as well as just, Lufthansa's our largest investor supply chain and really the ability to partner on so many fronts. We're really excited about what Lufthansa means to JetBlue. Raymond Neidl – Calyon Securities Inc.: Regarding, you're not doing any aircraft sales, I think you said this year, that's out of the way or you already said as far as that goes. Is that because the credit markets are frozen and no customers for aircraft? Would you be more active if we had a different type of credit environment?
I think Ray; I think there still is some interest in aircraft. We continue to get some inquiries about our aircraft. I think right now with our reduced delivery schedule going forward, specifically in 2010, we have three A320s and three E190s planned to deliver in 2010. We'd like to actually keep some excess capacity in JetBlue, so we're not out in the market right now trying to actively sell aircraft, certainly as market conditions change that could always change as well.
Our next question comes from Kevin Crissey – UBS.
I wanted to ask, you talked about the consumer resilience and maybe the leisure consumer resilience, given your network. I'm just wondering your perspective on the kind of lagging nature maybe of consumer verses business and whether that in fact exists? And whether we should be thinking about GDP or kind of unemployment? Kind of a bear case on the airlines as they were kind of at the tip of the demand iceberg, and that things are actually going to get worse as unemployment rises. So I want to get your perspective on GDP verses unemployment as it relates to maybe your customer base.
I think as we close 2008 we're very pleased with the type of resilience that we did see from a perspective of the discretionary customer. So much of our customer base, as well – the visiting family, relatives type of traffic that we have, it's not just vacation travelers. I mean it's a large portion of what we do, not just between say New York and down into the Caribbean, but also just between places like Florida, and into the Northeast as well. There's just so much of the family and relative traffic that it almost seems recession proof, if you will, from the standpoint of seeing one another. I also think that there's – our value proposition in customers looking for a value especially in this type of economic environment. I mean the highest fair in our company's history at a $151 in the December time frame, and with what we offer from the standpoint of the JetBlue experience, I think that we're very well placed with customers trialing, and I think this is where our commercial plan with the business flyer – the business flyer who's unmanaged trialing on JetBlue, a 190 at 320 verses what they've seen in the past, that we're actually very well positioned with the economy on its heals. I think at the same time though we want to be very cautious about what's happening, because these headlines it's hard to keep up with in the media or what's coming out of Washington. And so along those lines, we'll be very vigilant as we take a look at the year, but I do think the core of our traffic today, this VFR traffic is really hardy for our airline.
Our next question comes from Duane Pfenningworth – Raymond James & Associates. Duane Pfenningworth – Raymond James & Associates: Most of my questions have been answered. Just wondering with $500 million in CapEx for 09, how do you define free cash flow?
It's operating income less CapEx. Duane Pfenningworth – Raymond James & Associates: And I think Jim has a quick question. James Parker – Raymond James & Associates: Just quickly here, your full-time employees in the fourth quarter at year-end are flat, so that your capacity in the quarter is down 7%. I'm curious about the upside leverage, how much can you grow your capacity on the upside before you have to significantly increase the employment?
I think that – just a comment if I may, as we went into the fourth quarter, and we do have a no furlough policy at our company, and this investment, others would look at it as an expense that transpired in the fourth quarter. I think it actually, it positions us quite well and I'm not just talking about pilots, it's basically any of our crewmembers that are tied into operations, always looking at the back office as well, but it allows us to spring board into growth to the existent that we want to dial it up. So I think that we’re nicely positioned to really take advantage of growth if it happens. We don’t have to open up the training center. We don’t have to go through [simevents]. It is tough too because I also know the pilots or flight attendants or anyone tied to hours on the airplane, there was just less hours in the September and October time frame, but the ability to move with agility, I think, it just speaks volumes regarding the culture and the ability to seize upon opportunities. So one other thought here too, Jim, because of utilization on the fleet, the 320s and the 190s, we can also dial it up. We’ve been more prudent about really managing utilization to better place flights for time of day for the business customer, if you will, our higher yield customer, but we can dial utilization up, I don’t know, call it another single digit, 5% or so on utilization and we’re positioned well with our crew member base, so looking forward for that opportunity to the extent the economy presents itself that way. James Parker – Raymond James & Associates: Dave, is that like 7% or 10% or better that you could increase capacity and not have to add any significant number of people?
Well I think that, I don’t know if it is 5 or 7%, Jim, I mean, there is a – we were, over the Summer time frame where we were operating in excess of 600 plus flights per day, across our route network. Outside of the most recent holidays, they were more into the 550 or so flights per day, so that’ll give you a feel for the band width we have in place. I’m not suggesting that 600 over 550 translates into how we can dial it up back up, but I truly think we really are positioned nicely that there’s not a lot of hiring that would take place, but at the same time I am looking forward to some hiring too, because people are looking to upgrade to the left seat of the airplane or what have you. So, I can’t give you an exact number though Jim but it’s – safely you can come look at the summer versus the fourth quarter average flight activity and draw a conclusion there. James Parker – Raymond James & Associates: Okay, that’s great. Thanks.
Thanks so much. Jim, Duane, look forward to seeing you next week. James Parker – Raymond James & Associates: You bet. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Michael Derchin – Ftn Midwest Securities.
Thanks. Good morning, just a couple of quick ones; a status on the pilot unionization effort. Ftn Midwest Securities Corp.: Thanks. Good morning, just a couple of quick ones; a status on the pilot unionization effort.
Sure, good morning Mike, it’s a – we have a in-house pilot unionization effort, the poll will close on February the third, so as we sit here today we don’t have visibility in terms of how that will play out, and so at the same time as we spent considerable time with our pilots as well over the last several weeks, I am hopeful that we can maintain a direct relationship with our pilot group and so February three, in the afternoon, we’ll have much more information on this topic.
Okay, thanks and what about a status of the new terminal, how is that working and it’s also on the ancillary revenue slide? Ftn Midwest Securities Corp.: Okay, thanks and what about a status of the new terminal, how is that working and it’s also on the ancillary revenue slide?
Yes, I’ll tell you, on a scale of one to ten, we’d give it a ten. I mean the transition was, it truly was seamless and on the first flight that took place on October 22nd it gave us enough time to pressure test for Thanksgiving, a shorter holiday and then Christmas, Hanukah, New Year holiday and it also seems with our operations events as well. Really pleased with the accommodations of the terminal and we’re always working through little things whether its roadways or taxi stacks or security cues and how we break out ticket counters with international traffic, domestic traffic but really pleased. I think the feedback too from crew members and customers, very positive. The ancillaries don’t have – it’s a little bit too early to really share what we are seeing from the standpoint of ancillaries on the year-over-year basis on ’05 versus ’06, but the but the early look it quite positive from the standpoint of revenue per employment as a result food beverage and specialty retail in the building. Exactly what we thought would take place.
Our next question comes from Helane Becker – Jesup & Lamont.
Thank you very much operator. Hi guys.
On the average fare being the highest in your history, does that include the ancillary so that we should think 14% of; I think you said 14% of revenues were ancillaries. Should we be thinking about it that way?
Helane, good morning, the December average fare was $151.00 and keep in mind the strength that we saw in the holidays, especially with our network. The only, in that number, the only what many would look at additional revenues would really be the EML component, so the even more leg room component, everything else is really bucketed separate from a standpoint of ancillary revenues.
Okay. So that would show up as other revenue then?
Yes, okay, and then I think you said that you were forecasting a profit for ’09. So we are going to have to be thinking in terms of tax rates and net operating [inaudible]. Can you just talk about the tax position and what kind of a cash tax payer you will be if at all?
Helane, we are going to have some tax guidance in our guidance re-issue later on today so that will be in the investor update.
Okay, easy enough and then lastly, if you look at your bookings for April and March combined; can you just talk to how they look, relative to March alone not looking so strong?
So, I mean, I think the question is getting around Easter and, yes I was going to say for our network as well Passover is very significant. Easter is very significant, so I think again, we don’t have as much visibility but what we are seeing with the bookings that we have there is, from a yield perspective, quite solid. Again, where we're seeing those, is people booking closer in as opposed to traditionally what we’ve seen during that time frame.
We have now Bill Mastoris – Broadpoint Capital. Bill Mastoris – Broadpoint Capital: Thank you. Ed, a point of clarification first and that is, when you said that ’09 ending liquidity and that is, I think you mentioned as a percent of LTM revenues, is going to be roughly the same as the end of ’08. Were you including the auction rate securities in that calculation?
We were including the portion that we had monetized, so the line of credits in the loan. Bill Mastoris – Broadpoint Capital: Okay. The point that you indicated for – I believe was $83 million if I recall correctly. When does that input in ‘10 take place? Is that before the put date on your three and three quarter converts?
It’s the first half of the year. I don’t have a specific date on that but it is around the same time. Bill Mastoris – Broadpoint Capital: I just thought that might be used to take those out. And then finally, with your liquidity position and really what are very good prospects versus many of your peers, particularly on the legacy side, are you going to continue the repurchases of the convertible securities out there in the open market?
Based on just general market conditions, I think that we would consider repurchasing some of those. We just have to be mindful of our existing cash and so we may look for other ways to do that as well. Bill Mastoris – Broadpoint Capital: Okay, and then lastly, on the five and half, I am not sure I understood the cover around that, how that took place as far as the reduction and that outstanding balance. Maybe you could shed a little bit more light on that, that would be greatly appreciated.
Yes, I think because of the general credit markets and the liquidity out there, a lot of people who invested in those notes earlier in the year have decided to take an early redemption, so we’ve had about 75, 76 million of those present themselves for early redemption, but they converted into equity so it wasn’t, it didn’t require any cash. Bill Mastoris – Broadpoint Capital: Okay. Thank you very much I appreciate it.
This concludes our session with investors and analysts. With that, we will turn the call over to Dave Barger for closing remarks.
Thank you so much [Dawn] to everyone who joined us today. We certainly appreciate your time and we look forward to talking to you again in about 90 days. Have a great day. Talk to you soon.
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This concludes the JetBlue Airways Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for participating, you may now disconnect.