JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) Q3 2007 Earnings Call Transcript
Published at 2007-10-23 17:04:25
David Barger - CEO and Director John Harvey - EVP, Corporate Services and CFO
Robert Barry - Goldman Sachs & Company James Parker - Raymond James & Associates Mike Linenberg - Merrill Lynch& Company Gary Chase - Lehman Brothers Frank Boroch - Bear Stearns & Company, Inc. Jamie Baker - JP Morgan Securities Inc. Raymond Neidl - Calyon Securities William Greene - Morgan Stanley Daniel McKenzie - Credit Suisse Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners
Welcome to JetBlue Airways Corporation's Third Quarter 2007 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. We have on the call today Dave Barger, JetBlue's CEO and John Harvey, JetBlue's CFO. As a reminder, this morning's call includes forward-looking statements about future events. Actual results may differ from those expressed in the forward-looking statements due to many factors and therefore investors should not place undue reliance on these statements. For additional information, please refer to the company's periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Dave Barger. Please go ahead sir. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Thank you and good morning and thank you all for joining us. We are very pleased to report an operating margin of 10.3% today, our second straight quarter of double-digit operating margins. For the quarter, we realized a net income of $23 million or $0.12 per diluted share, which is a $23 million improvement over third quarter 2006. Our strong third quarter results were driven by solid revenue, better than expected cost performance. CASM was at 9.1% year-over-year, and our CASM excluding fuel increased 5.3%. In addition to solid financial results, we were again recognized for exceptional customer service. For the sixth year in a row, Condé Nast Traveller readers recognized JetBlue as the best domestic airline. We also ranked highest among major carriers in Condé Nast Business Travel awards. These awards are a true testament to our dedicated crew members who continue to do a tremendous job, delivering the JetBlue experience to our customers. And it's important for me to take this opportunity to express my sincere thanks to our 11,000 plus crew members. Now turning to our third quarter results. We are very pleased with our 9.1% year-over-year improvement in PRASM. We benefited from very strong demand during the peak travel period in July and August, which, along with rational capacity in many of our markets, helped us increase our average fare to $128.83, up from $123.41 during the same period in 2006. Yields were up 7% and load factor was up 1.6 points year-over-year. As expected, the strong revenue environment we enjoyed during the summer did not continue into September. The seasonal shift in demand along with capacity increases in our markets limits our ability to attain high yield during this timeframe. September is historically a trough month for us due to our large leisure customer base. As a result, our peaks tend be higher and our troughs deeper. Market maturity is also a key factor and during the third quarter, 14% of our ASMs where in markets open less than 12 months. Those markets that are still maturing will perform very well during periods of strong demand and declined significantly in the trough periods. Less mature markets, therefore, have a more significant impact on our trough performance in these tight months. On our call in July, we said that we thought September traffic would be difficult to predict, due in part to the fact that we weren't sure how much of last September's weak revenue performance could be attributed to the London terror situation. In addition, since September has relatively low sales volumes, our PRASM results are subject to greater fluctuation on a year-over-year basis. However, we continue to look for ways to improve our revenue performance during our trough periods. There has also been considerable speculation about the impact of Virgin America on JetBlue. Now we are always very concerned about additional capacity in our markets, and the third quarter guidance range we provided last July included a negative PRASM impact from the carrier. The actual impact was not greater than our expectations. New competition in our markets is something we have been accustomed to dealing with ever since we started flying back in the year 2000. We have never really enjoyed the luxury of no competition in any of our markets. However, we truly believe that we are very well positioned to compete against Virgin America or unlike [ph] carriers, our superior service, 36 inches of seat pitch and live television certainly is a very competitive product aboard JetBlue. Looking at our ASMs by region during the third quarter, 52% of our ASMs were East-West; that's down almost 4 points year-over-year. 26% of our ASMs were north to Florida, 11.5% in the Caribbean, that's up over 2 points and 4.2% were in the north and 2.8% were in the Southeast. Our total capacity during the quarter grew about 11% year-over-year. ASMs in the Caribbean had the largest year-over-year increase, up about 36%. I would like to highlight new services since the third quarter of 2006, specifically Boston and Kennedy to Cancun, Mexico; Boston to San Juan, Puerto Rico; Boston to Aruba and also Orlando down to Ponce in Puerto Rico. We are very pleased with our Caribbean results where we continued to expand. In fact, we recently announced new service beginning in January from JFK to both St. Maarten and from JFK to Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic. Our expansion in the Caribbean has not just been out of New York, but also out of Boston, Fort Lauderdale and Orlando. In fact, we are now flying from Orlando to three cities in Puerto Rico and we will begin service from Fort Lauderdale to Ponce, Puerto Rico in November this year. We also recently applied to the DOT for route authority to serve Bogota, Colombia from both Fort Lauderdale and Orlando. We have talked in the past about our comprehensive route network review and I would like to report that the first phase of this review is now complete, but also it's on a static process as much as in play on the competitive landscape and at JFK. One of the results of our route network review is the decision to close both Columbus, Ohio and Nashville, Tennessee effective January 6, 2008. We have also decided to discontinue service between Fort Lauderdale and Oakland, a transcon flight effective January 13, 2008. These markets did not mature as well as we had expected and we have decided to redeploy our aircraft more profitably. These were very, very difficult decisions for us primarily due to the impact they have on our outstanding crew members in these cities and our commitment to the communities we serve. We believe, however, that these decisions will ultimately lead to improved profitability, resulting in greater value for our shareholders and our crew members. I would like to take this opportunity to now discuss our home base of operations in New York. This summer was very difficult for JFK operations in terms of congestion delays and we continue to be impacted by operational challenges at JFK. There are certain hours of the day where carrier demand far exceeds JFK's current operational capacity. Once again, I would like to stress the current operational capacity. It's clear in our opinion that expanded capacity and some type of scheduling change are needed. Now we first approached the DOT and the FAA about setting up a scheduling meeting among the airlines in the spring of this year and we are optimistic that positive changes will be forthcoming. In fact, DOT Secretary Peters has called for a scheduling meeting, and this commenced this morning in Washington DC. In this meeting, we are very actively and participating in to specifically work issues at JFK. We are very pleased with this decision. Also, the FAA's recent aerospace redesigns, we believe, will certainly enhance both entry and the exit ways to and from the New York City airports, driving more efficiency, allowing for the use of technological improvements enabled by RMP and RNAV procedures, and this is certainly a key component of enhancing capacity. We'll continue to grow JFK in the future and leverage our position there as the largest domestic carrier. Our new terminal, which remains on schedule and on budget, will open next fall. We firmly believe there are still growth opportunities at Kennedy; however, less so during the peak periods, but more evenly spread throughout the entire operating day. As a result, we are planning more point-to-point flying over Kennedy such as Burlington, Rochester, Buffalo and Portland, Maine to Orlando as well as Buffalo and Syracuse to Fort Lauderdale, and in fact there'll be more coming in the not too distant future with overflies. Most of these routes are being flown by the E190 and in alignment with our goal of utilizing the EMBRAER 190 to pioneer new routes for our airline. In addition, we have recently announced service from Charlotte, Richmond and Raleigh to Fort Lauderdale also on the EMBRAER 190 and out west between Salt Lake City and Burbank as we further diversify and lattice our route network. We will continue to focus on increasing revenues for the use of various distribution channels. During the third quarter, about 75% of our total revenues were booked on our website, jetblue.com, 16% were booked through our reservation agents, 6% through the GDSs and 3% through the OTAs. We recently began collecting a $10 telephone reservation fee with the goal being to drive more ancillary revenue across the airline and also direct more revenue through jetblue.com, our lowest cost distribution channel. Speaking of ancillary revenues, we plan to roll out our cashless cabin November this year to monetize opportunities at altitudes on a go forward basis. Looking forward, we are seeing steady demand through the quarter. Bookings for the Thanksgiving holiday are strong and we expect there will be similar demand for the December holidays, but we have limited visibility that far out. Keep in mind that we enjoyed significant RASM gains last year in November and December and fourth quarter PRASM last year was up 23% compared to the previous year. So we will face very difficult year-over-year unit revenue comparisons between last year and this year. Looking into the fourth quarter, we also faced year-over-year capacity increases in our markets. Having said that, our year-over-year PRASM growth for the fourth quarter, we project will be between 2% and 4%. For the full year, our projected PRASM growth will be between 5% to 7%. Before turning it over to John, I would like to take a moment to discuss recent positive change in our executive team. Russ Chew, who has joined with us today... joined us as Chief Operating Officer last March, and he was recently appointed to President. In addition to his operational responsibilities, Russ will help lead our efforts to implement our short and long-term business strategy. Russ, formally FAA Chief Operating Officer, is a very valuable resource at JetBlue and I would say to the industry as we work through conjunction issues at our home base of operations at JFK and in the Northeast. In addition, Russ has provided essential leadership in building a new operational structure that will allow our crew members to continue to deliver the JetBlue experience and we very much look forward to the expansion of his role as we move into the next chapter of our airline and continue to identify new and exciting opportunities for JetBlue. Now with that, I will turn it over to John Harvey for a more detailed review of our cost performance for the third quarter. John? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Thanks Dave and good morning everyone. As Dave mentioned, we are very pleased to report a second consecutive quarter of a double-digit operating margin. Our 10.3% margin was well ahead of our projection and reflects both revenue improvement and continued cost discipline. Before we take a more detailed look at the quarter, I would like to briefly discuss our planned fleet growth. In July, we announced plans to sell three A320s this year. During the third quarter, we sold one aircraft and we plan to close the sale of the other two aircraft during the fourth quarter. In addition, we also returned one A320 to its lessor prior to the end of its lease term during the third quarter. As we've said in the past, we view our order book with both EMBRAER and Airbus as a major asset. And assuming conditions remain favorable, we expect to continue to take advantage of the strength in the worldwide aircraft market. As such, we have entered into an agreement to sell two A320s during the second quarter of 2008. That said, we also maintain flexibility with our options to accelerate our fleet growth and respond to market opportunities when they arise. Obviously, our growth decisions going forward will depend on the competitive environment. Turning now to third quarter results. Our cost per available seat mile excluding fuel was 5.24 cents, an increase of 5.3% on a year-over-year basis. This year-over-year increase can be largely attributed to a decrease in our average stage length, which was down about 2% year-over-year as well as the removal of one row of seats from our A320 fleet earlier this year. Adjusting for these two items, our ex-fuel CASM increased 2% for the quarter. Our crew members continue to work hard to improve productivity. We finished the quarter with 71 full-time crew members per aircraft, which is down approximately 12% over last year. Adjusting for the removal of one row of seats from our A320 fleet and the corresponding reduction of one flight attendant on board our A320s, we would have finished the quarter with 74 full-time crew members per aircraft, which is down roughly 8% over last year. Moving on to a few line times on our income statement. Salaries, wages and benefits increased 3% year-over-year on a unit cost basis, driven by the changes in our crew member retirement plan and pilot pay increases we implemented earlier this year. As a result of these changes, we accrued an additional $6.8 million in expense during the third quarter which accounted for all of the year-over-year increase. Fuel continues to be our largest operating expense and was up about 6% year-over-year on a unit cost basis. Our average fuel price for the quarter net of hedges was $2.13 per gallon. Sales and marketing expense increased 7.6% year-over-year on a unit cost basis, due to primarily to fees associated with our participation in the global distribution system and OTAs such as Expedia and Travelocity. CRSPs [ph] accounted for 85% of the year-over-year increase. However, we continue to be pleased with the incremental revenue we generate from the global distribution systems which more than offsets the increased expense. As we've said in the past, we presently attain a $35 to $40 net fair premium through the GDSs. Maintenance expense decreased 2.4% on a unit cost basis during the quarter, due mainly to fewer APU repairs. Other operating expenses increased 17.2% year-over-year on a unit cost basis, driven in part by the timing of our aircraft sales. In the third quarter of last year, we booked a $7 million gain from the sale of two aircraft which was recorded as a reduction to other operating expenses. During this past quarter, we recorded a $2 million gain in other operating expenses from the sale of one A320. This $5 million difference drove almost half of the year-over-year increase in other operating expenses. We also incurred incremental expenses during the quarter for things such as skycap and cleaning services in an effort to bolster certain operational areas in order to accommodate our increased flight activity during the peak summer travel period. Adjusting for these expenses and the gains from our aircraft sales, our other operating expenses increased about 2% year-over-year. Turning to the balance sheet. At quarter end, we had cash equivalents and investments of $844 million compared to $699 million at the end of last year. At present, we feel comfortable with our current cash position, but we are committed to ensuring we always have sufficient liquidity to withstand an extended economic or industry downturn. We expect to continue to actively manage our fleet growth and make adjustments as economic conditions warrant. I view our growth rate decisions going forward as a fluid process. Our long-term goal is to fund JetBlue with cash from operations and of course to consistently grow our earnings. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we will have detailed guidance available in our Investor Update filed as an 8-K later today. However, let me take a moment and share a few highlights. We expect to grow our ASMs... excuse me, we expect our ASMs to grow 10% to 12% in the fourth quarter and 11% to 13% for the full year. We currently anticipate taking delivery of 3 more A320s and 1 E190 during the remainder of the year. With the three A320 aircraft sales that we announced last quarter and the A320 lease return we just announced, we will operate a fleet of 104 A320s and 30 E190s at year end. As Dave mentioned, we expect PRASM to increase between 2% and 4% in the fourth quarter and 5% to 7% for the full year. Stage length adjusted PRASM for the year should be up 3% to 5%. For the quarter, we expect CASM to increase 11% to 13% and CASM ex-fuel to increase 6% to 8%. We expect the increase in our fourth quarter ex-fuel CASM to be driven mainly by the changes in our crew member retirement plan and pilot pay increases we implemented earlier this year as well as the removal of one row of seats from our A320 fleet during the first quarter. For the full year, we project CASM will increase 6% to 8% and ex-fuel CASM will increase 5% to 7%. Our ex-fuel CASM guidance range for the full year is now actually lower than the full year guidance range we provided back in January. Thus, despite all of the challenges we have faced this year, we have continued to meet or beat our cost targets. Our CASM guidance assumes an estimated average fuel cost per gallon of $2.23 in the fourth quarter and $2.07 for the full year. Fuel prices have increased on average 13% since we provided guidance last July, yet our fuel price estimate for the full year has remained unchanged, which is a testament to the success of our fuel hedging program this year. We are hedged roughly 47% in Q4 and more specific details regarding our hedging program will be available in our 8-K filed later today. This brings us to an expected operating margin between 3% and 5% in the fourth quarter and 5% to 7% for the full year. We estimate our pre-tax margin will be between negative 1% and 1% for the fourth quarter and 1% to 3% for the full year. In closing, we feel that our cost discipline has been quite good across the airline. However, I believe there is still an opportunity for improvement as we continue to grow and mature as a company. With the continued fuel pressures ahead, we will maintain our focus on reducing costs, driving productivity and improving revenue to ensure we can grow profitably and increase shareholder value. And with that, we are happy to take your questions. Question And Answer
Now we will begin the 30-minute question and answer session for investors and analysts. We'd like to ask everyone to please limit themselves to one or two questions with a brief follow up so that we can accommodate as many as possible. Thank you. Your first question is coming from Robert Barry with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Robert Barry - Goldman Sachs & Company: Hi guys. Good morning. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Good morning. John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Good morning Robert. Robert Barry - Goldman Sachs & Company: A couple of questions on the costs. It looks like things came in a lot better than you expected. I guess I am curious if you could give a little more detail on where the performance was so much better. And also I am curious why you left the margin guidance the same for the year even though the quarter seemed to track so far ahead of where you thought it would come in on costs. John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Sure. Really for the quarter, as we looked across all of our categories, we actually beat our guidance estimates across every singly category with the exception of deprecation and amortization. But the big drivers: salaries, wages, benefits and payroll taxes, substantial savings there. Actually, fuel came in a little bit better than forecast as well, I think a nickel better than we have thought earlier in the year. Maintenance also a good guide as mentioned earlier with respect to APUs. And other operating, even though up 17.2% year-over-year from a guidance perspective, better than forecast. With respect to why we didn't adjust the full year numbers, really, that's just a function of the math. Three quarters behind us, we can project what the fourth quarter is going to look like and at the end of the year it kind of falls out. Robert Barry - Goldman Sachs & Company: Okay. So no cost reallocation regarding maintenance or anything like that. And then just one other one, the 5% to 7% PRASM guidance for the year, I think that's a little lower than it was last time at 6% to 8%. I know you've also changed the ASM outlook. Is that what accounts for the change in the PRASM or is there some incremental weakness you are expecting in the fourth quarter? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Bob, we are still seeing... I mean I'd characterize it as steady demand in the quarter and the year-over-year comps are difficult. But really the energy that we saw in the bookings in July and August, we saw the trough period in September. We've historically had a trough period September into the October timeframe or in early November early in the December timeframe as well. So we thought that this was prudent to adjust our PRASM guidance accordingly. Robert Barry - Goldman Sachs & Company: Okay. It sounds like you are just being conservative. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Yes, I think it's... I don't know if I'd characterize it as conservative, but realistic. Clearly, we are taking a look at our route network with the announcement of the closure of two cities. And as we take a look at Kennedy with the congestion issues that are in play at Kennedy and then obviously we have the government interaction in play, overflies that are occurring in new markets. And so it takes time for new markets to mature, but these are all new markets. Now they are into the strength of the snowbird season if you will from New England and upstate down to Florida. So it's... I'd probably use the word realistic. Robert Barry - Goldman Sachs & Company: Okay, thank you. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Thanks Rob.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Jim Parker with Raymond James. Please go ahead. James Parker - Raymond James & Associates: Good morning Dave and John. John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Good morning. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Good morning. James Parker - Raymond James & Associates: I am curious about Columbus and Nashville in that obviously they weren't making money or weren't making enough money, and so you decided to leave. But you entered these markets thinking they were a pretty good... had good potential. What went on? What were the dynamics, the competition, or just in general, what caused you to back off from those two markets? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Thanks for question, Jim. Clearly, the headline was the fact that these two markets were maturing slower than what we were expecting. And when we opened 16 new markets back in 2006, an awful lot of new markets that we opened up, I think that's been a lesson for us as well to obviously open up fewer markets. So I mean these two were just... they were tied into Kennedy and they were just maturing at a slower pace than the other locations. And Jim, I think it's important to highlight that even with the announcement of these two cities, there is... we'll continue the focus. This is a dynamic environment looking and evaluating those cities that are responding to JetBlue's service. And I think it's also fair to say, Jim, that we take a look where else can we add service from our current cities. And this certainly means that 190, it will make its way out of the East Coast, whether it's into the Midwest, whether it's into the west, whether it's into the Caribbean; that will happen, but clearly stations that are, say, three flights a day are inefficient. And we are taking a hard look at those cities and their performance. James Parker - Raymond James & Associates: A second question regarding ancillaries. You've announced, I believe, a $10 charge to speak with a reservations person. What other ancillaries or other non-seat sell sources of revenue do you foresee and is this kind of just the beginning of several things in that regard? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Jim, I think it's a important to note that ancillaries are a very important stream and we'll continue that focus. But I don't want for JetBlue to be a totally unbundled product. And I think we know that the customer base that we have and a discretionary customer with an unbundled product, we want to be careful about that even though you start to take a look at that across Europe or other models now in the States or Asia. Now we just, in this quarter, we instituted the $10 reservation and airport fee. And the goal they really, part of it was ancillary revenues but also to drive behavior to the most efficient distribution channel which is jetblue.com. And last quarter, we announced and made a decision to implement the change fee. We increased... I should say increased the change fee another $10 both online and through the res center. So those are two of the initiatives. I think the most important one as we close the year in the fourth quarter is really cashless cabin. And as we've talked about in the past, Jim, this really provides the platform for our in-flight crew members and our customers to be... to experience different offerings or segment what we are doing at altitude, and that's the largest initiative for the fourth quarter. Going into 2008, the focus on ancillaries will absolutely continue at this airline. James Parker - Raymond James & Associates: Okay, thanks. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Thanks Jim.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Mike Linenberg with Merrill Lynch. Please go head. Mike Linenberg - Merrill Lynch& Company: Yes, good morning. I guess a question for John. John, just if you can remind us if you qualify for hedge accounting and if you don't, did you take an SFAS 133 gain in the quarter and then how does that compare year-over-year? Was it a gain a charge a year ago? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: We do do FAS 133 accounting for our hedges, Mike. Mike Linenberg - Merrill Lynch& Company: Okay. And do you have those numbers? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Not off the top of my head, but Lisa can provide them to you. Mike Linenberg - Merrill Lynch& Company: We can catch up on that. And then my second question, and this is to Dave, the announcement of flying from Fort Lauderdale to Bogota, it seems like you have been flying in the Caribbean for several years, but now flying, or at least aspiring to fly to South America, longer haul route, maybe slightly different market, it is a very competitive market. Can you just a maybe walk through your thinking, and maybe this is a modification of the JetBlue strategy, looking at some of these international markets where access for the most part is restricted and maybe opportunities down the road in this region? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Sure, Mike, and thanks for the question. Specifically, with our filing to Colombia, and again, it's just a filing at this point with the Department of Transportation. But, yes, you can take that as, I would say, a modification of our business plan. But as we've made inroads into the Caribbean out of New York, out of Boston and Fort Lauderdale in Orlando, results have been very positive for JetBlue. By the way, we are flying into Mexico as well today with service down to Cancun from both Boston and Kennedy. And so as we take a look at whether it's North and South America, Central America, Mexico, further expansion into the Caribbean, and again communities of interest out of the Northeast or from Florida, we think that those are very good opportunities for JetBlue. And Mike, it's worth reminding everybody that the A320 over-water equipped long range airplane, but the EMBRAER 190 over-water equipped and also close to a 2000 mile range airplane. So perfectly situated as a pathfinder down in many of those markets, say, from Florida down to the Caribbean. So we are excited about opportunities there. And it won't deviate from our home at Kennedy as a long-term strategy, but we think there are some nice opportunities there. Mike Linenberg - Merrill Lynch& Company: Okay, very good. Thank you. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Thanks Mike. John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Thanks Mike.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Gary Chase with Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead. Gary Chase - Lehman Brothers: Good morning guys. Just a quick one for John and then one for Dave. You mentioned I think a $6.8 million pilot accrual. I apologize, could you just go over what that is? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Actually, that $6.8 million in additional salaries, wages and benefits related to changes in our crew member retirement plan as well as the pilot pay increase. You may recall earlier that we went to a guaranteed... we call it a guaranteed profit sharing, but guarantees 5% contribution of eligible salary to our crew members versus a complete profit sharing program and we also increased the company match on our 401(k) from 3% to 5%. That was the lion's share of that $6.8 million. Gary Chase - Lehman Brothers: And that's one time to capture the stuff that you are anticipating along those lines, right? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: When you do a year-over-year comparison, yes, sir, because obviously we weren't doing that last year. Gary Chase - Lehman Brothers: Okay. Question for Dave is, I mean the company's obviously not hitting the kind of performance goals that you've laid out historically now. And I know you talked about getting through portions of the route review that led to the Columbus Nashville decisions. Could you just put a little more color for us around what is the long-term plan? Obviously, fuel presents new challenges everyday it seems. Are you done with the route review? Should we expect that there is more to come? When would we hear it? Can you just sort of flush out a little bit what the process that you are going through is and how are you going to get to the double-digit margins that I know you are targeting? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Sure, and thanks for the question, Gary. And you are right, a return to sustained double-digit margins for all of us in the industry become more difficult with fuel starting to touch $90 per barrel; no question about that. And plus just the competitive landscape, we have obviously new entrants in our landscape. Gary, the route review is dynamic, it's ongoing and, as alluded to previously, there are still markets that we are closely watching, new markets that we opened in 2006 regarding maturity. And so no announcement today outside of Columbus and Nashville, but that's one piece that's in play. I think as we talk about longer term strategy and how do we redeploy those airplanes, as we look to redeploy those airplanes and keep in mind that we have calmed down the growth, and John alluded to that again today with just the calming of the growth across the airline. We are starting much more a focused initiative on overflies. And whether they are seasonal or whether they remain year around such as Syracuse down to Orlando as a specific where we have been in there for a period of time, that is also part of the longer term strategy of the airline. And it's in alignment with the E190 acquisition when we discussed E190 as a board almost four and a half years ago. The number of overflies that we have in play, we have announced just between November and January 11 new routes, and 2 of them down to the Caribbean, 1 of them out West and 8 of them, from an overfly perspective, along up and down the East Coast. Only two of those routes touch JFK down to the Dominical Republic and St. Maarten. Now that doesn't mean that we are not going to grow JFK, Gary, but it's... when we look at longer term growth, congestion, what's in play with the government intervention, we will see that what means. But we have clearly had a change where actually we flew over the summer timeframe fewer flights than we did during the peak of, say, the President's weekend and Easter timeframe, Passover earlier this year. We are looking internationally as I responded to with Mike's comment, and clearly, we'll start to move the 190s into the Midwest and out west as well as we find opportunities to do so. So quite a bit of change it's really playing. And one last comment Gary, international partnerships at Kennedy. And right now, we have got... we've talked about Aer Lingus. We are optimistic about sales that will take place with Aer Lingus here and monetizing JFK, and finally making that a reality as well. So quite a bit of initiative in play, Gary, to really change the direction of the airline. Gary Chase - Lehman Brothers: And on the cost side, anything? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Always focused. And for our crew members who listen to today's call, for the analysts and others, very,-very pleased with cost discipline, as John talked about, with the specifics on the cost discipline. But that will continue. We know there are other opportunities across JetBlue to drive unnecessary costs, and so that just has to be part of the DNA of the airline on a go forward basis. Gary Chase - Lehman Brothers: Okay. Thanks guys. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Thanks Gary. John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Thanks Gary.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Frank Boroch with Bear Stearns. Please go ahead. Frank Boroch - Bear Stearns & Company, Inc.: Good morning. John, I was hoping maybe you could... you touched on the agreement to sell 2 A320s next year. Where does that leave your current thinking for capacity growth and I guess in CapEx as a result for next year? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: We announced today that we have an agreement to sell 2 A320s in the second quarter of 2008. As I mentioned earlier, we will continue to look at additional opportunities to sell aircraft next year as long as the market remains favorable. We haven't given any indication yet to the marketplace with respect to 2008 capacity growth. We'll be doing that with our fourth quarter call to take effect January 2008. With respect to CapEx, though, I think if I recall some of our slides from Investor Day and what not, we have taken our aircraft CapEx from what was $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. We have taken that down to closer to the $700 million to $800 million range. Frank Boroch - Bear Stearns & Company, Inc.: Okay. And given the increased focus... or the traction on cost discipline, what's your early thinking about a non-fuel CASM for next year? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Haven't given any guidance to that effect nor will I give any guidance on this call to that effect. Wait for the fourth quarter call in January. Frank Boroch - Bear Stearns & Company, Inc.: Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Jamie Baker with JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Jamie Baker - JP Morgan Securities Inc.: Hey, good morning everybody. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Good morning Jamie. Jamie Baker - JP Morgan Securities Inc.: Just a question on a 2% to 4% RASM in the fourth quarter and what might cause that to accelerate in 2008. I'm sure you are not going to give us your 2008 RASM forecast, but I'm wondering that if we could hold RASM constant, what sort of natural increase takes place on the increased EMBRAER flying in the A320 interior regauging. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Jamie, as I look at 2008 and again as we are still building and finalizing our plan for 2008, the number one issue that we are clearly dealing with is the trough periods. And this airline just it screams during the peaks. And we now that the route network is obviously more discretionary in nature, but these trough periods, and there are several of them over the course of the year, early January, then after the schools or depending where Easter and Passover is, between say the May timeframe, September, early part of October, early part of November, early part of December. Any way, are working very hard on the trough period across the airline. Number one, it's the route network and where we are deploying those airplanes. I think it's also important to raise the point that with the A320 with the 34, 36 inch pitch on that airplane, that was a cost initiative earlier this year. But there is clearly an opportunity to monetize the enhanced pitch on that airplane, specifically against competitors like Virgin American where the case might be on longer haul. We are hard at work on that, and I believe will be an early 2008 announcement as we implement it. As we talk about the opportunity, again, we are a discretionary airliner, a leisure airline by and large. But just testing refundable fares through our CompanyBlue initiative, the opportunity to mine the corporate customer, CompanyBlue, through the GDSs, the AmEx OPEN program; those are all really opportunities that we have to go after in a significant way. And so I think that that portends well from a RASM perspective as we look at 2008 and beyond, let alone our partnering with international carriers at JFK, Jamie. Jamie Baker - JP Morgan Securities Inc.: Right, okay, well I appreciate the clarity. Thanks a lot. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Thanks Jamie
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Ray Neidl with Calyon Securities. Please go ahead Raymond Neidl - Calyon Securities: Yes, the JFK congestion, that only affects you during a certain small window part of the day, is that correct, the evening when the international flights are going? Most of the day is still pretty open for growth. Is that a correct assumption to make? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Ray, that is a correct assumption to make. There is... the previous slotted hours with the sunset of the High Density Rule earlier this year, 3 to 8 O'clock timeframe, that has been the historic peak. That's not to say that there is not some new peaks as a result of other growth that's played out such as in the morning timeframe. But we believe there is plenty of opportunity for growth certainly in the trough periods, if I may, over at JFK and especially with how we are looking to deploy some airplanes. I mean the longer haul airplanes that leave at early in the morning going down to the Caribbean, they are gone for quite a period of time. And we can really start to schedule those airplanes out of the slotted hours. So we are excited about the new terminal, we are excited about the government intervention and we'll clearly continue to grow JFK as we go forward. Raymond Neidl - Calyon Securities: And how about your other important hub, Fort Lauderdale, there is congestion problems particularly on the ground there. What's the update with that airport? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Yes, actually, I think Fort Lauderdale is a great example of the success story with the airlines partnering with the FAA, Broward County as well. And the use... while respecting the community as well, which is important in Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood and the surrounding areas. That problem that was there really about a year and a half ago, through the use of a third runaway down in Fort Lauderdale, which traditionally wasn't utilized during the peak timeframe. We don't see operational issues at all down in Fort Lauderdale, and in fact they are starting to expand the Southern runway down in Fort Lauderdale, and we think that enhanced capacity is certainly going to continue down there too. Raymond Neidl - Calyon Securities: Great, thank you. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Thanks Ray.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from William Greene with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. William Greene - Morgan Stanley: Yes, hi good morning. Dave, you mentioned in your comments that there was an impact in the third quarter from Virgin America, but that it was less than your estimate. What was your estimate in the third quarter and what is it for the fourth? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: I think the comments were really as we baked in into our third quarter estimate an impact from Virgin America. So I didn't quantify the number in there, Bill, and, but it's clear that there is impact with a new competitor in the market. And Virgin America we are 6 a day from JFK to LAX as well as SFO, and out of Washington, Dulles with 2 to SFO and LAX. Let's face it, there is impact on any carrier in that market including us. And so that has been baked into our fourth quarter guidance and we are continuing to evaluate the competitive situation, Bill. William Greene - Morgan Stanley: And how do you respond if it starts to increase? Is it sort of something where you'd look to increase capacity there or would you pull back or how do we think about what your response should be? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Well, we start to... lot of gain theory plays in there, and there is... as we look at our strength from New York... now by the way the transcon is as I shared in my comments, were down about 4% year-over-year with the percent of our flying into transcons. But there is... we look at New York as our position of strength into the Bay area. That's not just SFO, but also Oakland and San Jose. When we look at Southern California, again from a home in New York, that's Burbank, it's Long Beach, it's Ontario, very specific airports to the area unlike an LAX if you will. And that's been a large part of the success of this airline including into the third quarter numbers as well. So from a Virgin America perspective, we are going to be prudent, but we are also going to make sure that these markets are a very important part of JetBlue on a go forward basis. And not just out of Kennedy, Bill; it's out of Washington, it's out of Boston and it's... and when we look at our product, and it's several flights a day into these markets, the opportunities to really work with that expanded cabin, which we really haven't taken credit for yet from a revenue perspective, the in-flight entertainment and the fact that it's the whole cabin that's got comfort, at least 34 inches. As opposed to a first class section, we think our model's better. William Greene - Morgan Stanley: Okay. If I can shift gears to EMBRAERs [ph], as we look at some of the efforts that you have taken on the A320 front to sell some of those, should we be thinking that maybe it makes sense to try and kind of revisit the EMBRAER order in terms of size or timing of it or even sale of those aircraft? How should we think about what those will do especially in light of where fuel is? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: I would take a look at the EMBRAERs from the perspective of it's the airplane as we are now... we'll celebrate two years in the November timeframe of flying the airplane. The technical dispatch for liability is now very close to the A320. We feel very good about our ability to deploy these airplanes away from the East Coast. And the growth plan that we've announced with the 320s, or excuse me the 190s previously, we stand behind that as well as we take a look at the 190s in the future, and it is a very significant part of our fleet plan. It's the ability to go in and pathfind a new market, it's the seasonality, it's the time of day, it's the point-to-point flying on a 100-seat airplane as opposed to a smaller airplane if you will. So Bill, it is and will continue to be a very important part of JetBlue on a go forward basis. William Greene - Morgan Stanley: Okay. Just the last question on the terminal at JFK. If we end up in a situation where they start capping flights at either certain parts of day or even the whole day, how will that change the sort of economic logic behind the terminal? I presume it anticipates some sort of growth in the number of flights. But I'm just curious as to your thoughts on how that might have to change the strategy if we cap flights there. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Yes, sure, Bill. I'm assuming there will be some kind of caps or some type of limitation that's put in place at JFK. It's unfortunate if you think that we'd be moving through the use of technology and a way from land-based navigation systems and into satellite-based navigation. But that's not going to happen overnight. We know that that's at least a 10 year plus project. But Kennedy, assuming that some type of cap is put back into place, our schedule today... we are pretty evenly deployed over the course of the operating day without the super peaks that you tend to see with the, I would say, a domestic presence that's feeding a flag operation over to Europe where you have everything peaked in the afternoon timeframe. So we see growth at JFK and in fact we have peaked at 186 trips at Kennedy earlier this year and we've built the terminal for 225 trips. And so, as you can see, it's... we are already fairly well subscribed in our current facilities when we take a look at moving in to a brand new terminal. As we've talked about in the past, it's something that looks like about $1 per ticket to really offset the new facility with the Port Authority, so... and it's fair to say too, Bill, that we've got ramp up timeframe built into our lease with the Port Authority. And so I am glad the government's involved, it's going to rationalize things. But JFK and our home, we are going to be able to use it just fine. William Greene - Morgan Stanley: All right, thanks for your help. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Daniel McKenzie with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Daniel McKenzie - Credit Suisse: Hi, good morning. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Good morning. John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Good morning, Dan. Daniel McKenzie - Credit Suisse: John,one house cleaning question here. What's the base crude assumption for the unhedged portion of your fuel guidance? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: I do everything nowadays based upon U.S. Gulf Coast. List will get back to you on how that converts back to crude. Everything I do now I think in Gulf Coast pricing. Daniel McKenzie - Credit Suisse: Okay, got you. And then I guess another question here is hoping you can provide some more perspective on the unit revenue trends in the newly latticed point-to-point markets. And then related to that, the length of time before you'll have a view of whether they are performing to expectations. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Yes, Dan, this point-to-point flying, the latticing across airlines, and I alluded to upstate New York as well as New England, clearly in the Carolinas down to Fort Lauderdale as well. It will take a period of time before we are going to start to see if we are hitting the trends that we have built into our P&L. All that said, I mean this North-South flying is deployed right into the advance, if you will, of the snowboard... snow bird season. So peak traffic between north and south as the weather starts to get a little bit tougher up here. So we have always thought that this was an important part of our strategy. It's not unlike what we are doing nonstop out of Boston; just out of smaller locations like Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Portland, Burlington. And I think we'll have greater visibility as we take a look at the next series of earnings calls. Daniel McKenzie - Credit Suisse: What percent of the total flying would the newly latticed markets account for?
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I think we'll have to get back to you on that. Don't have the percentage handy on that, Dan. Daniel McKenzie - Credit Suisse: Okay. And then just one final quick question. How many new studies should we expect in 2008? David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: It's a little bit early to really give visibility on our 2008 annual operating plan. However, suffice it to say, even the announcement of Puerto Plata and St. Maarten, they are 2008 flying. And I think we have learned that it's going to... we are not going to open a whole lot of cities on a go forward basis. We are going to connect the dots. We are going to drive efficiencies and locations. We'll take advantage of the one-off markets where it's one trip a day. But I don't expect a whole lot of markets being announced in 2008, Dan. Daniel McKenzie - Credit Suisse: Okay, thanks very much. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Sure.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Bob McAdoo of Avondale Partners. Please go ahead. Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners: Hi guys. Just... I know you don't... you haven't wanted to give guidance on capacity, but assuming you don't sell any more airplanes, can you just kind of bring us back up to speed on what deliveries are scheduled in 2008? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Yes, right now we have 12 firm A320s, 6 firm E190s, and then as I mentioned already, have agreements to sell 2 A320. So now you are looking at net 16 next year, 10 plus 6, if we don't do anything else. Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners: Have you got just as easily off the top of your head 2009? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: I believe 2009 is again 12 and 6 firm. Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners: Okay. That's all I got. Thanks. John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: You are welcome. By the way, welcome back Bob. Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners: It's good to be here. John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: Very good.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Bill Mastores [ph] with Bank of New York Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Thank you. John, could you confirm that all the planned sales for the A320s do not affect any of the double ETCs? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: We have not sold any aircraft that is subject to a double ETC financing to date. Correct.
Okay. And the second question I have, in the past you have indicated that you plan to manage the balance sheet very carefully against the backdrop of a 30% liquidity that is to LPM revenues if that's still the policy. Would you consider purchasing any of the convertible debt in the open marketplace kind of as a way to maybe strengthen the balance sheet a little bit more? John Harvey - Executive Vice President, Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer: What I have said previously is we have a target of 25% of trailing 12 months. Certainly, my Treasurer and myself would like to see a 3 in front of that number. But we understand where we are today in our growth cycle and we look at all opportunities with respect to our convertible debt.
Thank you. This concludes our session with investors and analysts. With that, we will turn it over to Dave Barger for closing remarks. David Barger - Chief Executive Officer and Director: Great. Thank you very much. Once again, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank our crew members for their hard work this past quarter. Our third quarter results are even more impressive, especially when we consider them against the backdrop of the operational challenges that we faced at our home in Kennedy and the Northeast. We realize there are many tough challenges that lie ahead particularly as oil pushes $90 a barrel. In closing, though, I can assure you we will continue to drive revenue and cost discipline with our goal of increasing value for our shareholders. Pam, thank you very much and we appreciate everybody joining for today's call.
Thank you. And this concludes today's JetBlue Airways Corporation's third quarter 2007 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your lines and have a pleasant afternoon.