The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (IPG) Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript
Published at 2008-02-29 15:06:07
Jerry Leshne – Senior Vice President Investor Relations Michael I. Roth – Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer Frank Mergenthaler – Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Alexia Quadrani – Bear Stearns John Janedis – Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC Paul Ginocchio – Deutsche Bank Securities Frederick Searby – JP Morgan Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC Karl Choi – Merrill Lynch Michael Nathanson – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Craig Huber – Lehman Brothers Ms Fallon – Citigroup
Good morning and welcome to the Interpublic Group fourth quarter and full year and 2007 earnings conference call. All parties are in a listen only mode until the question and answer portion. (Operators Instructions) This conference is being recorded. If you have any objections you may disconnect at this time. Now I would like to introduce Mr. Jerry Leshne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir you may begin.
Good morning. Thank you for joining us. We have posted our earnings release and our slide presentation on our website www.Interpublic.com and will refer to both in the course of this call. This morning we’re joined by Michael Roth and Frank Mergenthaler. We will begin with prepared remarks to be followed by Q&A and we plan to conclude before market opens at 9:30 am eastern time. During this call we will refer to forward-looking statements about our company which are subject to uncertainties and the cautionary statements including in our earnings release and the slide presentation and further detailed in our 10K and other filings with the SEC. At this point it is my pleasure to turn things over to Michael Roth. Michael I. Roth: Thank you all for joining us this morning as we review both the fourth quarter and full year 2007. I’ll begin with an overview and some of the key take aways from our performance and then Frank will take us through the results in detail. After his remarks I’ll return with some closing comments before we move on to the Q&A. I believe that the most important headline is that in 2007 our company’s financial performance was strong and consistent with our objectives. We saw a significant improvement in profitability driven by organic revenue growth and cost control. The business was cash flow positive. Net income was at the highest level we’ve seen in years as was EPS of $0.26 per diluted share, our best results since 2000. Organic revenue growth of 3.8% for the year demonstrates real progress in the competitiveness of our offerings. Operating margin of 5.3% compares very favorable to 2006 and is a significant improvement to the substantial losses we’ve posted in 2005 and prior years. We are also successful in remediating every one of the company’s 18 material control weaknesses and achieving Sarbanes-Oxley compliance. These are all major accomplishments and it’s gratifying to see such dramatic improvement in so many facets of our business. In terms of the organic growth results for 2007 there are a number of things that we need to be called out. First, organic revenue performance includes wins in a broad cross section of our agencies. Performance is strong or improving across our portfolio. Second, the fact that I mentioned on each of our previous 2007 quarterly calls our revenue growth would not be linear therefore it’s difficult to use a singles quarter’s results to extrapolate future performance, full growth is a better barometer of our performance. The 3.8% organic revenue growth we posted like our EPS is IPG’s best since 2000 and it’s at the high end of the 3 to 4% range of market expectations that was in place for us going into 2007. While organic revenue performance in the fourth quarter moderated relative to very strong results in Q2 and Q3 we see no evidence of a pull back in 2008. Importantly the tone of the business to date in 2008 remains solid. This is evident in new business wins such as Unilever ice cream, Hyundai Kia and Cadbury Schweppes, China Mobile and the Cadillac account in China as well as from dialogues with our existing clients. Of course it goes without saying that clients are cautious due to the broader economic concerns. As such they continue to evaluate the best ways to maximize the effectiveness of their marketing spend but what we are not seeing signs of a real pull back and this is true in all regions including the US where are very strong as evidenced by last year’s organic revenue growth in excess of 6%. So as we enter the New Year the talent we’ve added throughout the organization, the strategic actions we’ve taken during the past year and the strong 2007 financial performance gives us confidence that we are well positioned to achieve the 2008 financial objectives we shared with you back in November that is competitive revenue and an 8.5 to9% margin. Turning to the operational side of things it’s clear that the Worldgroup continues as a force to be reckoned with among the global full service marketing networks that provide integrate solutions to major multi-nationals. The investment in talents that we’ve made in McCann, Momentum and MRM have helped take their game to the highest level. That’s also true at the company’s NRCMG Group, Weber Shandwick, GolinHarris, Jack Morton, FutureBrand and Octagon which distinguished themselves this year. As in a number of our integrated US independents and Frank will have more specific on our operating unit results in his comments. During 2007 the merger of Draft and FCB was completed with minimal client loss due to conflict. The agency rolled up its sleeves and rolled out its new model around the world which led to wins like the US Census and the defense of Quest and it positions Draft FCB for success as we enter 2008. Lowes saw further stabilization of key accounts and its high value ideals offering has begun to show signs of progress as evident in some significant recent wins and an increasingly active new business pipeline. The implementations and evolution of our aligned media strategy is going very well and contributes dramatically improved performance at both Initiative and Universal McCann in 2007. A number of our major first quarter wins have been in the media area, something we just would not have been able to do 12 to 18 months ago. Our increased focus on emerging digital media has led to a strategy that will see us imbed digital expertise across all of our portfolio companies. This includes our major global networks and US independents as well as the fast growth marketing service companies which are combing their core competencies with extensions in areas such as social networking, the creation of digital assets, targeted mobile marketing and digital analytic capabilities. As we discussed with you in our last quarterly call these initiatives require investment in people, training and technology but they are necessary to ensure that we build our organic revenue momentum a vital component of achieving our turn around. Of course we will also continue to support and develop outstanding specialist digital capabilities such as RGA and MRM, Reprise Media and [Ansable] and we’ll keep building alliances with leading edge technology companies and thought leadership in digital marketing though the emerging media lab. In 2007 we also took significant steps to cement our leadership position India by acquiring the remaining stakes in both Lowe Lintas and FCB Ulka. Both are outstanding agencies that we’ve already begun to see the benefits of these transactions in the offerings we can bring to clients across the full range of the marketing spectrum. Going forward we will remain focused on the important brick markets where investment in talent and some targeted M&A activity should help us better meet the needs of our clients and to capitalize on the higher growth rate in these emerging economies. At this point I’d like to hand things over to Frank for an in depth review and I will come back to you after.
Let me remind everyone that presentation slides and company remarks are available on our website. As Michael indicated on his comments 2007 was a strong year for us both the top and bottom line. Two years into the turnaround we can look at our accomplishments in 2007 and see clear indications we’re making significant progress against the challenges we faced. One of the most daunting challenges we faced was our deficient internal control environment which undermined critical operating competency as well as confidence in our results. This morning I’m extremely pleased to inform you that with the filing of our 2007 10K Interpublic is complaint with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. This is a terrific achievement for our company when you reflect on where we were only a short time ago and the result of a comprehensive and detailed plan executed globally throughout all of our agencies with the active oversight by the audit committee and the board of directors. The achievement marked by SOX compliance transcends even its essential role in regulatory terms. With each passing quarter we close our books with greater efficiency and transparency which frees up key finance resources to part more effectively our operators. This will be a key driver of improved operating results going forward. At the same time we’ve aggressively reduced related costs. You will recall in March 2006 we put forward the goal eliminating over $200 million in fees paid to outside financial professionals and in reducing escalated severance costs. Outside professional fees and severance, total approximately $500 million in 2005. In 2007 those same expenses had decreased a combined $250 million from our level of just two years ago. Improved growth and efficiency are integral to our ultimate goal of restoring Inner public to fully competitive financial performance. Operating margin as we have said many times is a key measure of our progress, reported operating margin for 2007 was 5.3% compared to 1.7% in 2006 and negative margin in 2005. We demonstrated improved leverage on both of our principal expense lines in 2007. Included in our operating results is $27 million of restructuring expense and approximately $25 million of onetime real estate related cost and O&G expense in the fourth quarter. Excluding these items, our operating margin for the year was approximately 6%. As such, we believe that we are entering 2008 well positioned to deliver our operating margin target. Other key financial indicators also confirm that we’ve come a long way and are on the right trajectory. Diluted earnings per share of $0.31 in the fourth quarter is nearly three times the $0.11 we posted in the same period last year. Net income of $168 million for the full year is our company’s first positive result since 2000. Cash flow from our operations for the year was nearly $300 million up from only $9 million only a year ago. Now let me move on to the slide presentation. Turning to Slide Three, our P&L for the fourth quarter - I’ll cover revenue and operating expense trends shortly. Here I’d just like to call out two items. First, $27 million of restructuring and reorganization expenses in Q4, this is related to Lowe as we called out on our Q3 conference call, and actions taken in the continued evolution of the alignment strategy of our global media brands. Second, our tax provision was $60 million in the fourth quarter and approximately the same amount for the full year. This gives us a reported tax rate of 24% in the fourth quarter and 25% for the year. You may recall in Q2 we recognized approximately $80 million of tax benefits related to a worthless securities deduction we had taken several years ago. As a result through nine months of 2007, we reported low 12% affected tax rate on a small pre-tax loss. In Q4 profitability in certain jurisdictions was stronger than expected which caused us to increase the tax rate for the full year, and to record the provision at 24% tax rate in Q4. Cash taxes paid for the year were, $88 million compared with $111 million in 2006 and $95 million in 2005. We ended the year with $1.8 billion of gross loss carry forwards, mostly overseas, which made available for utilization is profitability improves in related jurisdictions. Moving on to Slide Four, we will provide additional detail on revenue. Reported revenue in the quarter $1.98 billion an increase of 5.6 %. Compared to 2006 exchange rates had a positive impact of 4.4% and net business dispositions were a negative .04%. The result was organic revenue growth of 1.7% attributable to higher revenue from both existing clients and net new business wins. For full year organic revenue growth was 3.8%. While our top line growth moderated in Q4 from the two previous quarters, it’s worth repeating what Michael said earlier, we see no material headwinds in the quarter that we expect to carry forward in 2008. We begin to see the impact of the GMC and Buick account losses in Q4. We cycled through the tailed of some earlier domestic account losses that weighed on the results of one of our agencies. We believe that impact is largely behind us. We also had a revenue decrease with a US client that was significant in the quarter but looking ahead we expect a strong increase with that client in 2008. Outside the US, we had a challenging comp due to very strong [inaudible] growth we had in Q4 06 and in other markets our revenue accounted for a single client, whose revenue is seasonally very concentrated in Q4, also impacted growth, but in no way effected profit, I’ll turn to this in a minute. Lower half of the slide shows segment performance, in Q4 the organic revenue increase was 0.8% at IAN and 6.8% at CMG. For the full year IAN’s organic increase was 2.9% and CMG increased 9%. In our integrated network segment we had strong growth in Q4 at the McCann World Group, Hill Holiday and Deutsche. In our CMG segment we saw strong organic growth Weber Shandwick, GolinHarris, FutureBrand and Jack Morton. Slide Five provides regional revenue break down. In the US revenue increased 3.7% organically in Q4 and 6.3% for the full year a terrific result. Q4 benefited from a strong slate of client wins at McCann World Group, a number of our US integrated dependants and at CMG. Internationally our performance was mixed in the quarter with solid growth in the UK and Asia Pacific Market but decreases in Continental Europe, Latin America and what we refer to as other markets. In the UK organic revenue growth was 5.7% in Q4 with increased client spending at McCann and Universal McCann as well as the benefit of a client event that shifted from Q3 in 06 to Q4 in 07. In continental Europe revenue declined 1.2% organically in Q4 due to decreased client spending at Draft FCB and Lowe and particular softness in France. We view the full year performance in Europe as disappointing and have recently made a number of management changes in that region particularly in France. In Asia Pacific Q4 revenue increased 6.8% organically. We had strong improvements in China, India and Australia which were partially offset by Japan where the market was soft. For the full year organic growth was 6.1% in the region with strong growth in China and India again partially offset by the challenging conditions in Japan in which we have a significant presence. In Latin America our smallest region organic revenue decreased 6.8% against a very high 19% increase in Q4 of 2006. Growth for the full year was 1% on top of 12% for the full year in 2006. During the year we strengthened our offering at Lowe with the acquisition with a top Brazilian creative shop. In our grouping of all other markets, our Q4 organic revenue change was a decrease of 11.4%. You may recall that this group includes Canada, The Middle East and South Africa and was up 26% in Q3. Approximately half of the decrease in Q4 was due to a change in the accounting for business with a single client resulting from a change in the underlying contract. This took us from a principal to an agent and the accounting for revenue in and pass through cost from a gross basis to a net basis, there was no economic consequences to the change. So, there was some volatility in the second half of the year and the group was up 1.6% organically for all of 2007. Slide Six depicts our organic revenue growth trends since 2005 on a trailing 12 month basis. This longer view effectively demonstrates what Michael said earlier about not focusing excessively on growth on a quarterly basis. It is much more illustrative to look at where we’ve come from, what has been accomplished over the past two years and the trajectory of our business. On slide Seven we move on to a closer look at operating expenses. Salary and related expenses were $1.11 billion in the quarter, 55.8% of revenue compared with $1.09 billion 57.9% of revenue a year ago. That’s a reported increase of 1.7% but a decrease of 2.4% on an organic basis. As we called out on the slide Q47 expense in salaries and related was $32 million a decrease from $28 million in Q406. As you will see in the appendix to our presentation slides Q4 incentive expense was 3.6% of revenue compared to 4.6% in Q406. For the full year salaries and related expense including incentives was $4.14 billion, 63.2% of revenue compared with 63.7% of revenue for all of 2006. For the year leverage on base salary and benefits improved to 51.9% from 52.3%. Total incentive compensation expense was 3.6% of revenues compared with 3.3% in 2006. This reflects increased amortization expense of our equity base long term incentive programs and an increase in our cash base annual incentives. Annual incentives were higher than anticipated at the time of our third quarter conference all due to strong profitable performance in the fourth quarter. As Michael pointed out we continue to make the necessary investments to drive revenue growth in strategically critical areas notably digital and marketing services as well as media. We also continue to reduce headcount in smaller growth areas. Headcount at quarter end was approximately 43,000 a net increase of approximately 900 from a year ago which chiefly reflects our acquisition of Lintas India in 2007. Office and general expense at the bottom of the slide were $578 million in the fourth quarter compared with $573 million a year ago, a decrease of 2.2% organically. O&G expense decreased to 29.2% of revenue from 30.5% in Q406. As you will see in our presentation appendix the key drivers for improvement in the quarter as well as the year were leverage on professional fees and occupancy. Fees for outside professional services chief related to accounting and financial controls declined $14 million from a year ago in Q4. As I mentioned earlier Q4 O&G expense included $25 million in real estate actions in several of our agencies and locations around the world, a little more of half of which is not cash. This is separate and apart from expenses in our restructuring line. For the full year O&G expense was $2.04 billion compared with $2.08 billion in 2006, a decline of $34 million and an organic decrease of 2.7%. Professional fees decreased $72 million and leverage on occupancy increased 50 basis points. On Slide Eight we show our operating margin on a trailing 12 month basis again looking back to 2005. This excludes restructuring and impairment charges in order to accurately capture the trend in operating results. This chart clearly shows that we have been very consistent on improvement and also why we are confident as we move into 2008. On Slide Nine we show cash flow for 2007. Q4 is also shown separately in the presentation appendix. For the year, cash from operations was $298 million compared with $9 million in 2006. The major drivers of the improvement were our increase in net income and lower use of cash and working capital. Working capital utilization improved $80 million to use $170 million as highlighted here in yellow. Approximately one third of this use took place in the trade accounts of our business. The other two thirds reflect the settlement of liability established in 2004 financial statements and a resolution of various tax matters. Working capital management remains a high priority for us. We believe that in a business that is stable and growing as we were in 2007 we can continue to build on the improvement we’ve already seen. D&A for the year was a total of $288 million, depreciation was $177 million, amortization of restricted stock and other non-cash compensation was $80 million and amortization and interest expense of $31 million. In investing activities we used approximately $150 million for acquisitions in 2007 consistent with our operating plan. This is significant more activity than we had in our recent past as we return to investment mode with a disciplined approach to high growth strategically critical areas. In total we made eight acquisitions in 2007 including the step up of our investments in Lintas, India and FCB Ulka, two of India’s leading agencies. As you know we also acquired Reprise Media a leading search engine marketing specialist. Before moving on I want to call out that cash flows in 2007 also reflect a Q4 charge in other income of $6 million on approximately $13 million of face value auction rate securities. This represents our total investment in such securities out of $2 million in cash in marketable securities. On Slide 10 we present the current portion of our balance sheet as of yearend 07 and 06. We ended the year with $2.2 billion of cash in short term marketable securities an increase of $80 million from a year ago. Our cash level is seasonal as we have said previously and typically peaks at year end. Under current liabilities we have called out previously our short term debt includes our $200 million 4.5% convertible senior notes with 16 million underlying shares. This classification reflects the option of note holders to put that debt to us on March 15th. This amount was $400 million at the end of Q3 but was reduced in November through the private exchange of $200 million of our 4.5% notes into new 4.7 convertible notes. Should the full $200 million come back to us we expect to fulfill the obligation with cash on hand. Our debt maturity schedule as of yearend is presented on Slide 11. Total debt at quarter end was $2.3 billion. Here again, the put options on our convertible notes have a dotted outline while the 2023 maturities in the column at the far right. In conclusion, the financial results we are sharing with you today show a company that is making real headway. We posted dramatic improvement across the board. Organic revenue was up 200 basis points and operating margin was up 360 basis points. Cash from operations went from just under $10 million to close to $300 million this year. We achieved Sarbanes-Oxley compliance. We have good momentum going into 2008 and as Michael stated we believe that the IPG turnaround remains on track. Now, I’d like to turn it back over to Michael who will wrap up the call. Michael I. Roth: As you heard in 2007 we are proud of the success we’ve seen in a number of vital areas. From addressing financial controls and infrastructure to further building our talent base across the organization and beginning to leverage recent strategic decisions all of which leads to higher profitability. I think it’s important for us to step back and recap the following: in 2005 we were losing money and market share however, we chose not only to apply band-aid solutions to what are fundamental problems, we did not shy away from aggressively attacking weak financial controls even those this carried extremely high short term cost. It was the only way to truly fix a very serious situation and insure the company’s long term viability. We also did not shy away from investing our talent so as to reinvigorate the offerings at many of our agencies. In 2006 we continued with these efforts and began to see early results as both organic revenue and operating margin moved into positive territory. The cost of moving towards compliance continues to be a high but we’ve made a conscious decision to take the company’s business practices, governance and disclose to the highest level of transparency. As we headed into 2007 we focused on strategic solutions for our most vulnerable units. Some of which involve new agency models that will make our offerings responsive to the revolving realties of an increasing digital integrated and accountable marketing. We resumed M&A activity in high growth disciplines and geographies and we’ve prepared to make operational cost discipline a top priority in anticipation of SOXs compliance. The swing in profitability and organic revenue growth that we’ve seen from 2005 to 2007 is dramatic and all the more remarkable given the issues IPG has had to confront as well as the inherently volatile nature of a professional service business. We are moving into 2008 with positive momentum. Our agencies have been winning in the new business arena and we feel confident in our plans which calls for competitive organic revenue performance and operating margin in the range of 8.5 to 9%. Like our peers and every type of business at this juncture we are monitoring the broader economic situation closely but barring a significantly large scale slowdown we believe that our financial performance in 2007 confirms a future for IPG that is brighter than it’s been in some time. We will continue to do our part to insure that we deliver on our goals for 2008 which is to say that we’ll stay focused on serving our clients, building on our top line progress and further addressing costs. That’s what’s required to post the kind of results that will lead to enhanced shareholder value. Now, I’d like to open up the floor to questions. Thank you.
(Operator Instructions) One moment for the first question. Our first question comes from Alexia Quadriani from Bear Stearns. Alexia Quadrani – Bear Stearns: A couple of questions, first can you give us some color on how organic revenue growth is trending in the first quarter? I think you mentioned a large client pull back in the fourth quarter and seems to be spending again now. Is that bounce back by that client maybe offset by something else that we’re not aware of? Or, should organic revenue growth trend better in Q1? Michael I. Roth: We’re trending positive in the first quarter. Obviously, it’s early in the year but when we say that the moderation in the fourth quarter was the results of various ins and outs what we said was the tone continues to be positive and we see that in the first quarter. Alexia Quadrani – Bear Stearns: So it basically sounds like it should be trending better than what we saw in Q4 from what you see so far which I know is early. Is that fair? Michael I. Roth: Yes. Alexia Quadrani – Bear Stearns: Then with your comments regarding France and I guess the issues there. Is it fair to interpret them that the wheat performance in France was really more internal than external? Or, is there also pressure maybe in the external environment of France? I’m just trying to get an idea of how much you can fix yourself with the management changes and how quick of a bounce back we may expect in that market? Michael I. Roth: You know what we saw was both, pull back in clients but we did respond with some very positive new management changes so we’re cautiously optimistic about it. We hired some real high quality individuals and we hope to see an improvement both as a result of their performance as well as the client spread. Alexia Quadrani – Bear Stearns: Lastly, just on the profitability, I know you don’t give specific data but could you give some maybe general commentary about how profitability is turning by region? Is Europe doing any better? Michael I. Roth: I think the geographic list that Frank shared with you showed that we’re seeing positive momentum in the United Kingdom. Obviously, we have to stay focused on continental Europe but we do see some positive improvements which is important in the UK. We’ve had a new management team there and obviously with Lowe and McCann doing better I think that leads to a better performance.
I think the profitability improvement we saw in 07 is being generated around the globe. Alexia Quadrani – Bear Stearns: Is Europe profitable now?
Europe in the aggregate, we don’t disclose that but a number of our markets that were struggling we’ve seen improvement in 07 and we anticipate that improvement to continue in 08.
Our next question comes from Mr. John Janedis of Wachovia. John Janedis – Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC: Two questions, first Frank can you elaborate more on the expense side given the bump in 3Q for digital talent I would have expected that to flow more into 4Q and into 08. What’s going on there in the salary line and how lumpy will it be this year?
John, I think we should expect to see on the base salary line we should continue to see improvement. I think from the severance component I think we’ve somewhat stabilized there. As we continue to invest in talent we’ve also got a number of initiatives and processes and tools out there to help us get better leverage off our existing staff so our ROA operating plan calls for a continued improvement in leverage off of our base salaries. John Janedis – Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC: Then more broadly can you talk about the ad environment meaning just from some of the other calls we’ve heard a lot of these traditional media companies like newspapers, radio, outdoor, TV and yellow pages they’re all starting the year more slowly than they had planned. How quickly are clients moving spend to other platforms and does that affect the margin mix at all? Michael I. Roth: Well, obviously the notation of the integrated offering includes us looking at the broad spectrum of the various media outlets so that’s not anything new so throughout the year we’ve been looking at the mix in terms of how our clients spend their money and obviously the areas that you’ve culled out are certainly suffering but I do see as you can see this morning some of the more traditional media is doing better. In total, as we said, we don’t see a major pull back the issue is where are they going to spend their dollars but from our perspective that’s sort of good for us in that our tools and resources are geared to helping our clients measure the ROI and help them determine where they should spend their dollars. So therefore, the more we can work with the clients in helping them in that decision the better it is for us. Margin, do you want to comment on that Frank?
I think to Michael’s point John as the media mix changes there may be margin pressure there may be margin opportunity. It really depends on where that money goes and the actual value add we contribute as the dollars migrate into some of the newer media. Michael I. Roth: Let me comment about the investment in digital. We’ve said this throughout, we continue to invest in digital throughout all our units and that obviously was part of the decisions we made to forego some sort term benefits by not spending and improving margin on the long term basis. So, we’re going to see that throughout the numbers and even with those spends we see improvements in our rations. John Janedis – Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC: One quickie sorry, Frank I know it’s out of your hands but anything new on the SEC?
We’ve delivered to the SEC all the documents they’ve requested, all of the interviews they wanted to hold so from our perspective we’ve met all their requirements. Our general counsel is in touch with them regularly and right now we’re in a bit of a holding pattern. Michael I. Roth: What’s frustrating about it and it’s not just us, we’ve actually raised these issues and what we’re seeing is that they’re just backlogged with a whole bunch of stuff so it’s not that they’re picking on us. When I meet with a lot of the other CEOs and all the business environments there’s a huge backlog there that’s jamming up everyone from moving forward and we’re caught in that.
Your next question comes from Paul Ginocchio of Deutsche Bank. Paul Ginocchio – Deutsche Bank Securities: Just two questions on that new business how you’re looking year to date and second Frank, do you think you’re going to have to tap the ELF if the $200 million is sent back to you? Michael I. Roth: As far as the new business it is positive. We were positive for the year and we continue to win business in the first quarter as you’ve seen. The ELF is something we are actually starting to look at now in anticipation but we don’t see – certainly what we’ve said in the remarks is with the put we expect to use current cash to pay, we don’t expect to tap into the ELF to pay it.
Our next question comes from Mr. Fred Searby of JP Morgan. Frederick Searby – JP Morgan: A couple of questions, I know this is a tough question but given what you’re seeing now what do you think competitive kind of industry growth will end up being in 2008? I’m asking you to break out your crystal ball a little bit. And then secondly, you’re not seeing a slow down, I know financial is small for you but what has been the behavior of financial companies in terms of 08 type budgeting? Are they cutting back or is there still stable stability there? Just one question conceptually, in the last downturn I remember PR and some areas got hit very, very hard that have been fast growing, where would you expect to see – kind of what would be the business lines that would be the leading indicator if you did start to see a retrenchment from some of the clients? Michael I. Roth: First, we continue to think that the range for organic growth for next year should be in the 4 to 5% range as being a competitive number and I think that’s what you’re seeing in some of the announcements by our competitors as well. In terms of pullback, historically what you’ll see is special projects. Rather than their normal budgeting process any special projects that come up are easier to put aside to see how the business environment unfolds for the rest of the year and it won’t necessarily be in a particular – certainly branding, things like that are areas that historically get pulled back early on but mostly it’s in the special project area.
On the financial side, our larger financial client Fred was strong from a growth perspective for the year and in the fourth quarter. Michael I. Roth: As you see, our percentage of financial services is what, 7%, 6 or 7% and obviously, we haven’t seen – we’ve seen some pullback in some of the smaller financial services companies but overall as Frank indicated we have one big financial services company that dominates it and again, it’s not our largest sector.
Our next question comes from Mr. Troy Mastin of William Blair & Company. Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC: I want to start by asking about a statement you made last quarter about still striving for double digit operating margins in 2008. How do you feel about the potential of reaching that target today versus three months ago? Michael I. Roth: Well, we’re still striving to do the best we can. The reason we put the 8.5 to 9% out there because that we saw as a more realistic target given what was going on in the environment. Obviously, depending on the economy it’s achievable but right now I think if we deliver on the 8.5 to 9% that we’ll be doing well in terms of our progress. Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC: Okay. Then you had mentioned one client who you said in the fourth quarter that was unexpectedly soft or unusually soft and you expect to see that spending strengthening in 2008. I assume you mean beginning in the first quarter. I was wondering if you could quantify a little bit more in terms of how much this impacted your organic growth and if you can give any details as to why they slowed spend and now are reaccelerating spend. Michael I. Roth: We don’t give out details like that on a specific client and nor do we control when a client decides when they want to spend their money. The good news is we know that the pull back that occurred in the fourth quarter is not going to continue into 2008 so that is why we believe that that spend is there and we’re pretty comfortable that is exactly what will happen. Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC: Can you not necessarily quantify but specify if it was project work related. Michael I. Roth: No, no this is a normal regular client that we’re dealing with. It wasn’t specific.
The company had some of its own operational challenges and they took a pause in their spend and they’re confident that they’ve worked their way through those challenges. They’ve got their 08 plan and they seem pretty committed that they’re going to reengage in their spend. Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC: Was this substantial enough it cost you 100 basis points of organic growth? Michael I. Roth: That’s another way of asking the size of it, you can’t fool us. We don’t give out specific information on clients but again, it was an impact. The good news here is we view it as a temporary impact not a long term impact. Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC: I didn’t ask who the client was. Michael I. Roth: You just asked the amount. Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC: In terms of tax rate for 2008, assuming that you achieve your targets for organic growth in margins, what should we expect to see in terms of GAP and cash taxes in 08?
We’ve said on prior calls we thought a more normalized tax rate was 55 to 60% and again, it’s very jurisdiction specific as to where profit is generated. We had an abnormally low tax rate this year because of the one event we had in Q2 but somewhere in the 55% range for 08 is probably reasonable. We would expect over time that number to get down to a normalized 40 to 45% rate as we see profitability around the globe start to increase. Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC: And that’s on a GAAP basis, right?
Yes. Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC: What about on a cash basis with your NOLs?
Again, it depends. Jurisdiction specific we’ve got the significant NOLs and depending on where we can start generating profit we’ve got a real tax shield there and believe me we’ve got a tax team that’s quite focused on how we get at those NOLs. We saw improvement in our cash taxes paid this year, some of that is a result of some structuring we’ve done outside of the US so I think the team is now fully focused on it especially when you’ve got Sarbanes-Oxley behind them and there’s just an opportunity to spend a great emphasis and focus of their time on trying to drive real value out of the NOLs in the balance sheet. Michael I. Roth: And it is a double win for us. To the extent we improve profitability in those regions, the fact that we’re improving profitability will improve cash flow by utilizing these tax laws carry forward. That’s why the concentration in that is going to be significant for us to focus on. Troy Mastin – William Blair & Company, LLC: Then finally, you’d mentioned that you’re reallocating some of the resources you have in your financial services organization. How might we see the effect of that in terms of working capital or some other area?
You know Fred, I think the best place you’re going to see is improvement across all of our cost metrics. I mean the thought there is and we saw some evidence of it this year as Interpublic becomes under control which we are now, we’ve got very talented financial resources around the globe that were spending a very significant amount of their time on remediating control weaknesses. Now, they’ve been remediated, those folks can turn a good portion of their emphasis on driving operating performance. So whether it be in cost control, whether it be improved staff utilization in client profitability, there’s a whole realm of things that these folks are going to now start putting the full court press on and quite candidly I think that will be one of the largest contributors that we have to improve performance in 08. Michael I. Roth: It also helps us in terms of allocation of capital. I mean that’s why when Frank was talking about what we were able to accomplish Sarbanes-Oxley was obviously a goal for us but the real change here was in the fundamental control environment and visibility that we see into our businesses and that’s got to help us not just in the short term but on a long term basis, is how you manage your business and the visibility into these businesses are critical for us as we go forward. That was the key benefit of all this. The Sarbanes-Oxley was obviously mandated but it helped us from a business perspective.
Our next question comes from Mr. Karl Choi of Merrill Lynch. Karl Choi – Merrill Lynch: I have a couple of questions, the first one is for Frank, now that Sarbanes-Oxley is behind us could you update us on what your expectations are for professional fees in 2008? And second, I know you don’t break out margins for individual agencies but with some recent winds over at Lowe can you give us a better sense of how big of a margin improvement should we expect from Lowe in 2008?
Karl, the professional fees you’ve seen them fall dramatically since 05 and we will continue to work with our advisors to drive those costs down even further. I’m not willing to put a number out there. I think two years ago we hoped professional fees would be south of 3% in 08; we achieved that in 07. So again, as we institutionalize our control environment and we work with our advisors and we take more and more of the responsibility there in house we expect to continue to see improvement. Michael, do you want to comment on Lowe or do you want me to comment on Lowe? Michael I. Roth: I’ll comment. Obviously, we’ve continued to reposition Lowe in the marketplace. I think it’s very encouraging for us and Lowe to see the recent business winds. They continue to have a very impressive offering in the high value ideas and as we indicated before we expect them to go from a loss position in 2007 to a positive position in 2008 and they’re on track to do that. So, rather than give you particular margin numbers obviously being positive in 2008 from Lowe is an important factor in our accomplishing what we want to do.
Our next question comes from Mr. Michael Nathanson of Sanford Bernstein. Michael Nathanson – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.: I have two on cash flow, one for Frank, one for Mike. Frank, on cash flow many of your peers, almost all of them, have positive working capital. Why is yours negative and what can you do about that? Then, for Michael now that you’re actually generating free cash flow, give me your priorities for how you’re going to use this cash. Should we expect some more digital acquisitions or is buybacks in order?
On the working capital I agree, we’ve made dramatic improvement with respect to working capital. I think it was an $80 million improvement year-on-year and when you look at the negative working capital you’ve got about a third of it is trade so we’ve got a number of initiatives in place, we’ve seen some progress in 07 and we expect that to turn positive moving forward and we’re still working our way through some of the liabilities that were established for the restatement. So, as we see especially our media business grow and we become more disciplined with respect to working capital management your thesis is right, it should be positive. We have made progress but we’re not there yet. Michael I. Roth: In terms of the use of our positive cash flow what we’ve said is we’re back in the M&A environment but that doesn’t mean to say that we’re taking all of our cash flow and investing it in transactions. We’re very disciplined on the M&A side. This past year we used about $150 million which was consistent with our budget and we have a similar budget going into 2008. And you’re right, they will be tactical and strategic in terms of locations and disciplines and certainly some of them we expect to be digital type transactions to add to some of our unit’s offerings if you will. As far as the buyback goes, I’ve mentioned this before, I look forward to the day that we will be looking at those types of issues and I think certainly we look at that carefully given the level of our stock performance and our free cash flow. Until we’re through our turnaround which I think we’re getting very close to we’re going to look at holding our cash and being conservative on our balance sheet. As soon as that’s over with obviously one of our top priorities are in enhancing shareholder value and whenever you look at that you have to consider the issue of share buybacks, possibly dividends as well as investments in other businesses and at the high level of prices I don’t think those acquisitions make a lot of sense so therefore cash share buybacks and dividends are reasonable alternatives for us to look at. Michael Nathanson – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.: Okay on that score, Frank you guys use to tell us what the share count was because it was so complicated, all the dilution. Where is fully diluted share count right now?
Because it’s complicated Jerry has to hand it to me. Michael, you must have preempted this question because it has a handwritten analysis for me that I’m reading to you. It’s got 503 million. I’d say if you’ve got any questions, give him a ring.
Our next question comes from Mr. Craig Huber of Lehman Brothers. Craig Huber – Lehman Brothers: A few questions, can you be a little more specific on your new account wins in the fourth quarter and also in the first quarter? Michael I. Roth: In terms of 2008 new quarter wins, MRM won Chevrolet in Thailand. Obviously, Aruba Tourism is some of them, Cadbury Schwepps with Initiative; China Mobile with Lowe; the Unilever Ice Cream obviously was a win for Lowe, it was a take away from McCann but overall we view that as positive to IPG in terms of revenue. GM, Cadillac in China was won by McCann Shanghai; Staples in the UK and Sony Ericsson and of course, the Hyundai Kia win at Initiative. Craig Huber – Lehman Brothers: Those were all so far in the first quarter? Michael I. Roth: Yes. Craig Huber – Lehman Brothers: Is there any significant account losses you want to talk about so far this year? Michael I. Roth: No, the only that’s up for review of any size and again, not as big as some people might think is the Intel Media. I think the reported numbers on that are in the range of $7 million of revenue. I think again, we don’t give out numbers but again, it’s one that’s up for review and we’re working hard to defend that one. Craig Huber – Lehman Brothers: Then again I guess Frank or Mike switch over for cost, you guys were nice every quarter to break out your cost in nine different buckets here. As we think about 2008, in the fourth quarter here you guys did remarkably a much better job here on costs than you did the prior three quarters. What should investors expect specifically for 2008, what categories are you guys really focusing on? Or, should it be broad brushed across all the different categories?
Craig, we should continue to see improvement against our staff cost ratios. I think our O&G ratio we’ve made dramatic improvement over the years, there’s always opportunity but for Michael and I during the planning process the staff cost ratio is probably the most significant item we push people pretty hard on. Michael I. Roth: And on that one clearly, there’s a balancing act here in terms of investing in the future versus taking short term actions and I think we’ve done a good job in terms of maintaining that balance. We will show improvement on it but again, not at the cost of long term investments in people. Craig Huber – Lehman Brothers: Do you still think for example, in the occupancy line that there’s room to pull that down here over the next couple of years given that a lot of leases are long term in nature, etcetera?
I think that in all the broad categories we’ve showed progress, outside of professional fees we’ve shown progress in occupancy, we continue to be very efficient I think with respect to managing global real estate. Again, I’ll go back to the comment we made earlier, as global finance teams around the globe can focus more and more of their time on cost containment, our expectation is we’ll continue to see improvement. Craig Huber – Lehman Brothers: Then just lastly, in terms of advertising categories here US or globally was there any specific categories that you’re overly concerned about here other than the usual autos and stuff like that? Michael I. Roth: I wouldn’t say overly concerned about. Let me comment on Pharma because that’s been out there. We have a very strong Pharma offering and frankly 2007 was a very good year. Obviously, some of the products affected our business as a result of some of the pull backs of some big drugs but overall Pharma continues to be a very important category for us and we had a great 2007. Craig Huber – Lehman Brothers: Just net-net from your comments earlier Mike you’re not overly concerned about your clients pulling back spend as we’re two months into this new year? Michael I. Roth: Every morning you wake up and you read but so far, and we watch this very carefully, and we have not seen it yet. That’s why we’ve made the comments we have. I think it’s obviously something everyone’s looking at carefully but we still haven’t seen it.
Our last question comes from Ms. Fallon of Citi. Ms Fallon – Citigroup: I was wondering Frank if you could tell us a little bit more about the total value of the outstanding NOLs and any color on the geographic regions where those are in place so that we might be able to better estimate the tax benefit going forward?
Sure. It’s about $1.8 billion of which the majority of it is outside the US and probably the largest markets that are contributing are the UK, Germany and France. Ms Fallon – Citigroup: Okay, great. Then also, a little bit of color on the outlook for 08, it seems consistent with what we’re hearing from our industry contracts and also from surveys we have done but I’m wondering how much of that kind of cautiously optimistic tone for 08 is due to onetime effects in 08 such as the Olympics and other lineal affects in the elections that might go away for 09? So, essentially how should we be thinking about the longer term outlook for advertising and for the public in general once these lineal effects have subsided? Michael I. Roth: I think the comment certainly that we made and we continue to make are excluding those onetime items. Obviously the cautiousness has to do with the overall economic effect and those one particular items are not what’s sort of raising the boat in the water if you will and giving us the comfort level. This is general client spend that we’re looking at not specific projects and as I said, if there is a downturn we’re likely to see specific projects get pulled back but the regular spend – what you’re going see is some clients trying to get more for the buck, that’s the reality of it. When there are margin pressures in their businesses they of course look at various sources to see it but the general tone on the spend is still there. I want to thank everybody, obviously we’re very pleased with our results for 2007 and we’re excited about what we have to offer in 2008 and we look forward to sharing our results with you as it progresses. Thank you very much.
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