DexCom, Inc.

DexCom, Inc.

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Medical - Devices

DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Published at 2021-10-28 21:50:06
Margaret Kaczor
Hi, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the question. The question is a little bit more of a theme and an expansion maybe on some of the partnerships that you referenced in just getting a better sense around how many of your patients out today, for example, may come from these partnerships. And when you talk about expanding them, is that enough form of covered lives or is it something else? And that is just as a follow-on, since shakes on the call, I guess, the products and subscription services that you guys may offer these partnerships. How do those evolve, I guess over time and could that potentially accelerate some of the capabilities that deck Tom offers are the new products that they offer away from pure technology that you've been in the past towards some of these other software or other potential offerings you have. Thanks. Jereme Sylvain : Sure. Yes. So let me start with maybe the financials side and how that migrates over time. And then Jake's obviously who will take you through the technical aspect of it. And why we're so excited about it. So today these partnerships are a combination of expanding TAM and expanding people that would want to access CGM technology over time. And today it's in the form of sensors. But over time, and as we've demonstrated the couple other software features, we've obviously added over the past, 6 months or so. Software can be a part of that package. And so we're really -- the monetization of that will come over time. Today is about how we get as many folks as possible on sensors to realize the value of CGM. So that's how we expand it, Jake, maybe you could take it through just kind of the general theme of, of where we're going in that space.
Jake Leach
Yeah, sure. Jeremy. Thanks for the question. So really the way we think about it is that the technology that we're bringing in the market through this software features is really about providing unique experiences for customer segments. And so if you think about the type 1 segment or the type 2 segment non-intensive. You really -- you're solving different types of problems in those and so what these Software tools such as our lives API provide is a way for our partners to serve those needs with seed DexCom, CGM, and a connection to our product, the real-time API is a real advancement in our cloud strategy. And we're really excited about the list of partners that are working to integrate that into their systems to provide their customers with unique experiences. Quen Blackford : Our next question comes from Matthew O'Brien from Piper Sandler. Go ahead Matthew. Matthew O’Brien : Thanks and thanks for taking my question. So a lot of moving parts here and I'm not sure if I'm doing the math right, but I'm getting like $60 to $70 million of a pricing headwind this quarter. And I'm not sure what the distributor conversion if that's right or not. I guess I'm just asking, is -- is that about right? Are we seeing a little bit more of the pricing headwind this quarter than we've seen over the last couple. So we'll see maybe a little less next year getting pulled forward with the 21. And then the -- and the reason I'm asking is that, the increase sequentially from Q3 to Q4 is a little bit below trend line, is that because you're expecting more on the pricing headwinds to be seen here in '21 versus '22? Thank you. Jereme Sylvain : Yes. So there's a couple of pieces, so I'll first and foremost reiterate the total pricing expectation for the year, the 250 million is still the expectation if anything, we might come a little bit light on that, but that still is the expectation. So then the pricing in Q3 was generally in line with prior quarters. A little bit elevated, but it's not a material step change, and that's a function of some of those OUS contracts kicking in. So really, that's where we come from a pricing perspective. So it's not necessarily pulling anything in. We've often talked about 2022 being relatively similar to 2021. And we're still on that trajectory. So I wouldn't necessarily expect any of that. To your question on how Q4 plays out in the guide and doing the math there. And you're doing the math, right. One of the things we're mindful of, and there's really two pieces to it as you think about it, there's the piece we talked about a little bit earlier, which is the delta variant and getting into new primary care offices and making sure that we're seeing that over time before we count on it. So that's the first piece of it and we're mindful of that. And then the second piece of it is as more and more of our product is fulfilled through the pharmacy, the historical trends over time you're going to see start to migrate just a little bit. You saw it start this year in Q1. If you look back to Q1, our sequential pullback from prior year Q4 into Q1 was a bit muted, and you're going to see the same thing in this Q4, which it means as more and more goes to the pharmacy, you no longer have folks in the DME space than all of them have the high-deductible health plans were folks are maximizing benefits at the end of the year. So we expect a little bit less seasonality as we progress. And in turn, we expect a little seasonality in Q1 of next year. So that's what you're reading into. That's ultimately what comes through in the guidance. So you're doing the math, right. But those are some of the expectations that went into it. Quen Blackford : And our next question comes from Travis Steve from Barclays. Go ahead Travis.
Travis Hayes
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Jeremy, just a follow-up on the distributor. It sounds like the revenue impact this quarter it was 13 million all in the offline and just curious how to model that going forward is at about 13 million a quarter for three more quarters. And then it gets into the base and how to think about like is there a pricing benefit here without the distributor margin. Just a little more color on the distributor acquisition If you all.
Jereme Sylvain
Sure. So we'll -- so of pricing. We don't necessarily break down the pricing USO, U.S. and the overall number. And so at the end of the day, we're on the trajectory of the total Company we talked about. And so obviously guys will do the math, but at the end of the day, we're on that same trajectory. In terms of your question on the distributor. With the impact of the distributor acquisition on growth in the quarter in our CGM business, it rounds to 0%. It's because there was 2 months in the quarter, and that markup on the margin in the distributor market is relatively small. The question is, well, why do you and what do you it, and what -- it's our ability to control, penetrating deeper into these markets. And that's ultimately why we do it. It's not try to get a margin uplift. It's actually to try to control investment. We're a Company that has cash on the Balance Sheet. We're willing to invest in these markets. And we want to continue to invest in these markets. So as we take them direct, the goal has been to reinvest in make sure that we're driving adoption. So the impact of the distributor really nominal on our organic growth rate like I said, it rounds to 0. So the 28% is the organic growth rate even including that. So hopefully, that helps you around the acquisition. There isn't much there that changes the results this quarter. Quen Blackford : And our next question comes from Matt Taylor from UBS. Go ahead, Matt. Matt Taylor : Great. Thanks for taking the questions. I was hoping you could give me more color on how things are going in the primary care channel. Could you give us any sense for how the sales force is maturing, how productive they are and if there's more to go there? Kevin Sayer : Yeah, this is Kevin. I'll take that. There's still more to go, but it is going very well. Our targets are going very well as far as those we've call on, we've also learned there are some we have not had on the target list and we're expanding that coverage as well. We've had numerous situations where it's taken our person several attempts to get into an office, but once they get in and once we get a person on a DexCom, their responses so good based on the quality of the product that we get more. But it is a progressive effort, and it doesn't -- we don't walk in and all of sudden get, hey, here's 50 new patients this month. It takes a little time and we have to bet a lot of credibility. But the primary carrier audience, particularly with those on insulin, it's gone very well so far, but it is a process and it does take some time. Quen Blackford : Our next question comes from Joanne Wuensch, from Citi. Go head Joanne. Joanne Wuensch : Thank you very much for taking my questions. It seems to me like the increasing clinical evidence that you are building is going to really help the Type-2 population. But could you give us sort of an update on where you think or what you think you'll need to get into the non-intensive type juice. Kevin Sayer : Yeah. This Kevin, I'll take that. We've taken several pronged approach to get in there and we're not going to deviate from that approach. We're working with healthcare professionals who are prescribing product for a non-intensive type right now and getting great outcomes. We work with the payer network, for example, the level 2 program at UnitedHealth, that produce some very good results for them and very visible in their marketing materials, in their efforts. The programs and with the technologies Jake outlined that we got approved today, the app in the App and the API interfaces that will be great for partners because they do wanna control that experience for patients and ultimately getting to people directly. We've been very successful on our DTC campaigns for the intensive insulin users, there will come a time when we will be able to go direct to those consumers in the type 2 NIIT as we call it. Non-Intensive insulin therapy or non-insulin therapy, get to these guys as well, and we have a high level of confidence in the products we're designing and the things we're planning combined with the ability of our team to reach these markets once we turn them loose, once we have the opportunity to do so. So we'll go through all the steps, will continue on all four fronts. We're not going to back off on one of them. Quen Blackford : And our next question comes from Cecilia Furlong from Morgan Stanley, go the Cecilia.
Cecilia Furlong
Thank you for taking our question. I wanted to ask just on Gross Margin as you think about 4Q, what is implied with your updated guidance step-down, but just what you're factoring in from the International access component versus G7 initial launch, not quite being at scale and how we should think about the trajectory heading into 2022. Thank you. Kevin Sayer : Sure. So the gross margin in Q4, we do expect to take a bit of a step back. Some of it is the international access as that ramps up. And the other piece to your point is the launch of G7 and turning on all of the machine, the depreciation and therefore the yields. A majority of that is going to be the G7 launch. And the reason why is we're not at full capacity at that point. Now, once we get to full capacity, there's no reason why we don't get back to our long-term gross margin guides, and we'll get into 2022 when we get there. But there's nothing strong actually in those lines that would prevent us from meeting what we had talked about from our long-term gross margin guide. There may be ebbs and flows quarter-by-quarter as we ramp up. But I don't expect there to be any issues there. So if you're asking the question well, how I would weigh the two most of the impact is upon the launch of G7. And in turning on those machines and the depreciation associated with it. As we get into 2022 and volumes start to build on those machines and you're able to absorb those fixed costs. There's nothing structurally that can't get us back to the gross margin profiles that we've set for an organization. Quen Blackford : And our next question comes from Jason Bedford, from Raymond James, go head Jason.
Jayson Bedford
Hi, this Povin (ph) for Jason and I have 2 quick questions here. First, will we see G7 clinical data before U.S. approval? And the second one is how close are you guys to get into the 75% of commercial payers into the pharmacy channel?
Jake Leach
So thanks for the question Jake, so the -- we presented actually earlier this year, we presented at ATTD G7 data. Joining a MARD of sub 9% and very strong accuracy, better than G6, in fact, so we're very excited and happy with the result of the U.S. pivotal. And we'll be releasing that in the future. Yeah. So now that you've seen that data, I think you have a feel for it. And obviously, that data -- as these -- as more products launch over time, you'll get access to it. But I think some folks ask, well, how do I know what it's going to look like before, there is public -- data available at ATD that should set North Star. In terms of the transition, the migration in the pharmacy, we talked about this glide path from approximately 50% turning into 2021 or at the end of 2020 into really 75% by the end of 2022, we're on that glide path right now. And so we're making headway, we haven't given a specific update as a percentage but as your charting that course, we're right where we'd be expected and right where you'd expect from a linear transition over time. So hopefully that helps. Quen Blackford : Our next question comes from Larry Biegelsen from Wells Fargo. Go ahead, Larry.
Nathan Travis
Hi, this is Nathan Travis call for Larry. Thank you for taking the question. Can you just provide us an update on how you're thinking about CGM for hospitals and gestational diabetes? Thanks.
Jake Leach
Yes, this is Jake, so let's start on the hospital first. So the way we are thinking about that is that, you really with the accuracy and reliability that we have built into the G6 and G7 systems. That it's a great CGM platform to then build a purpose built hospital products. So we're in the early stages of understanding what is the exact CGM that meets the needs in a hospital. We've seen good success with G6 under the times COVID used in the hospital. It is really serving a need, but it's not exactly the right workflow for the our hospitals. And so what we want to do is better understand how rebuild a CGM that really meets the needs of that segment, On the pregnancy side, we're very excited about the building in pregnancy functionality and providing information that's important for expecting mothers into the G7 product. And so that's part of our roadmap and we're actively working on building that into the G7. Quen Blackford : And our next question comes from Steven Lichtman from Oppenheimer. Go ahead Steven. Steven Lichtman : Thank you. Hi, guys. Kevin, you mentioned earlier all the work you continue to do on non-intensive with partners, payers, and collecting data. Wondering what your latest thoughts are on potential revenue per patient in that population or utilization overall for the non-intensive. Thanks. Kevin Sayer : At this point in time, the total revenue amount per year is still something we model out in a number of cases. What we've learned and what the data that we've seen most recently supports and we'll continue to talk about is continuous use of the system provides much better healthcare outcomes than intermittent or that the things had patients learn with this technology, having that feedback full time provides a much better outcome with respect to the long-term revenue model. And again, I'm speculating a bit here, but I'll just repeat what I said to the team internally, we're solving a much different problem for somebody's not on insulin, it is not a life and death decision for them, so I can see them revenue per patient being lower for this group over time, even in continuous use. But I don't know how much yet. There will certainly be intermittent use models that might be available and lead to good outcomes. But one of the mistakes that a lot of these programs make in the beginning, is they try and minimize the number of sensors because they're worried about the costs there trying to control when in reality the benefits that these patients and these customers use the system to get are derived from CGM data. So we have to balance those things and balance that against our current business model as well but we do believe it's going to be a very good population and there's -- there was long a belief that all these patients will want to wear it all the time. Now, they do. They very much enjoy the data and really like knowing where they are. That has not been a problem at all. Quen Blackford : And our next question comes from Ravi Misra from Berenberg. Go ahead, Ravi.
Ravi Misra
Hi, thanks for taking the question. So I guess I'll use my one question on New Zealand, Australia distributor. Just curious, how quickly can you basically get through this I guess, inorganic revenue in terms of the impact of guidance like is there still kind of be non-CGM revenue that we assume and Quarter 4 and maybe help us think about, I guess what the market size that you think you're able to kind of go after with this acquisition or do you need to do more in this arena, this country or continent space to really get access to the population? Thank you. Kevin Sayer : Sure, I can take that. So when we acquired the distributor, the distributor had multiple different product lines. They have sales reps that cover these multiple different product lines. And ultimately a distributor is about people and it's an incredible group of people. And so the key here is making sure we keep everybody together. So we'll stay in that line. What we tried to identify for you, is the contributions to the overall guide in basis points. And so in our guide, we talked about a 100 basis points on the full year. You'll do the math and figure out what the approximate impact is in Q4, and I think you'll have a pretty good feel for it. We'll make sure that we isolate it out over the long haul so that you're able to identify what is and what isn't out there. So I think you can feel comfortable there,
Jake Leach
Provided material in terms of the actual acquisition itself, and being able to get into the market. This was -- this is a group of folks who have done an incredible job with CGM adoption in that, in that country. And so when we when we get into these countries, we want to make sure one, we have the team, we make sure that they're eight. There's nothing in their way from continuing to develop CGM awareness and developed CGM adoption. So there's nothing that prevents us under the structure. The only thing we mentioned in terms of investment is very similar to the way you've thought about our organization in the U.S. We know that investment in DTC and in sales reps where it makes sense and then sampling, and all of the things that we've put in place make great sense in other markets. You've seen us do some of that in Europe, and certainly we've done some in Canada and we expect to do more of that and we take it direct, we can do a little bit more of that. And so that's really what we're talking about. So there's nothing structurally that prevents us from taking the acquisition and continuing to proliferate CGM adoption in those countries. Kevin Sayer : Yeah, this is Kevin, I would just add to that. One of the reasons we do things of this nature, take a look at our direct business in Canada. The wins we've just had with the provinces and reimbursement there. With our financial muscle at the corporate level, we can take much more risk than a distributor could on their own. We view this investment in Australia and New Zealand as one where we're going to be able to go after broader market increased access reimbursement and really make an impact. Those -- this team needed our muscle to do that financially, and we needed their talent to do it as well so it works for both of us. Quen Blackford : Our next question comes from Maury Kibo. Go ahead, Maury from BTIG.
Maury Kibo
Hi. Thank you for taking the questions. Spending a little bit of time on the DexCom one site, it strikes me as a very consumer-friendly website. And I'm just curious whether this is sort of a glimpse for the future. I know it's been launched into some Eastern European countries, but is this a model that you would look at in terms of flexible pricing and subscription plans and bulk order discounts? Is this something that's a preview of the broader appeal of CGM, maybe into pre -diabetes and consumer markets? Kevin Sayer : Yes, it's Kevin, this is a very important launch for us, is the first time we've launched their product on a new software platform and had a new product launch. We're in a position now volume and manufacturing wise that we want to get this product to as many people as we can. And what DexCom one represents is really an opportunity where we can get DexCom technology into a geography, easier than we could if we went through our traditional means with our G Series products. So we're offering this and -- yeah as you talked about, flexible pricing plans, subscription models, and things of that nature, to get this product to this patient group. It definitely can be a precursor of things we can do in the future, to take advantage of the scale that we've created within the business with our ability to manufacture more. And again, while the website is very easy to use, I assure you the App that Jake 's team and our marketing team has developed is every bit as easy to use as the website. This truly is a step up for us from our product experience. And that we'll evaluate those opportunities over time where we have a market, where we can increase our volumes and gain more traction with this type of product offering rather than our traditional G-series, we will explore that. Quen Blackford : Our next question comes from Josh from Cowen. Go ahead, Josh.
Neal
Hi, this is actually Neal (ph) on for Josh. Thanks for taking the question. And we've had some consultants recently talk about the potential for monitoring other analytes. I was just wondering if you can or maybe share any updates there in terms of any development plans or program for extending monitoring to outside of glucose, like Ketones?
Jake Leach
Sure. Yes. The wearable platform that we've developed with the electro -chemical sensors that can be extended to other analytes. And we do have active research programs within DexCom and also with some of our university colleagues that are researching other analytes that we could use on our platform. Today, we're not talking about exactly which ones, but we do feel that this platform can be extended to multiple analytes and provide more value around the CGM component. Quen Blackford : Our next question comes from Anthony Petrone, from Jefferies. Go ahead, Anthony.
Anthony Petrone
Great. Thanks and hope everyone is doing well. Two quick questions. One would be on supply chain constraints. I'm just wondering how that is expected to play out into 2022, hearing a lot about inflationary upward pressure on cost of goods sold. So wondering how that's playing out for DexCom, what the offsets are. And then as we look into the 05 launch, just maybe an update on what percent of existing Omnipod users are currently not users of DexCom solutions? Thank you. Kevin Sayer : Sure. So all go ahead and take the inflationary and supply chain. So I think everybody's, --nobody is immune to certain products and certain areas that do have pressure based on supply chain, supply and demand. One of the things I think our team has done, there's two pieces of it. One, do you have enough product and two, can you manage the cost? And I think our team has done an incredible job in lining up the product. Now, that doesn't mean everybody's out of the woods that everybody has got supply chains and actually running through. But this team got ahead of it very early and has been working collaboratively, with all of our suppliers well in advance to make sure that we're properly communicating the value of our product and making sure that we're working with them to secure supply. And that's ongoing, but that's work that's been done well in advance of everybody else jumping on us, we're very proud of that team. In terms of the inflationary measures, we're in a bit of a unique environment. There have been absolutely inflationary measures, but we're also making a lot more product. And so you get economies of scale and purchasing power which offset some of the challenges associated with inflation. So our expectation is we're able to navigate both of those, and it will not impact our longer-term gross margins because of that nature. So hopefully I answered your question. Maybe I could turn it over to -- well actually, I can answer the Omnipod question. With Pod 5, there are a decent amount of folks using it. There are some studies out there. I don't want to quote them just because I don't know how accurate they are. We generally have a good feel for it, although we haven't put it out there publicly, we can let Omnipod do that if they want to. But we do know once Omnipod 5 is launched and the integration associated with DexCom it could provide a catalyst certainly for us. The one thing we will say is, we continue to say it all the time, is CGM first. We do believe that a lot of folks do come to CGM and then ultimately could choose to go onto an integrated system, and most folks that do get onto our product today now are MDI, and so a lot of those are out there. That all being said, another AID system Sean Christensen : With one is novel as, as Omnipod I think is certainly something that's interesting and for patients that like patch pump, I think this is an incredible opportunity for folks to get on that platform. Quen Blackford : Our next question comes from Kyle Rose, from Canaccord. Go ahead, Kyle.
Kyle Rose
Great. Thank you for taking the question. I just wanted to maybe ask another question on DexCom you've talked a couple of times about the patient experience being different and having a different app. But I understand that the software’s obviously completely different on the e-commerce side, but maybe help us understand just what specifically is different from a patient facing perspective, with DexCom ONE versus what we've seen historically with the G6 and the previous generation products. Thank you.
Jake Leach
Jake, I will take that one. DexCom ONE from the beginning, our intent around the design of that product was to make it simple. And so that kind of flows through, as you mentioned, the e-commerce experience, but into the App, the mobile App itself. It's a new, --completely new App architecture for us, so it's a new piece of software. And the first part that users will see that's quite different is the on-boarding module. We basically spent a lot of time studying human factors and how users use the products, particularly in those -- when they're first learning how to use it. So what onboard module does is really walks them through a simple process on how to get up and running quickly on their CGM. The other thing about it, that's different than G6 is that has a simplified alert scheme. So it doesn't have some of the more sophisticated predictive alerts, the G6 does it, it has a very simple easy-to-use, approachable alerts scheme. The other thing that we added is with our current G6 system, a lot of the data over time statistic are built into our clarity software with Dexcom ONE we've actually incorporated that into the Dexcom ONE absolute typical statistics like average glucose time and range estimated A1C, that's all built into the single Dexcom ONE up. And then finally in that vein of simplicity, there's no AID connectivity for Dexcom ONE, it also doesn't have the share remote monitoring features, so it's really about bringing a simple CGM product to people who have never had access to Dexcom ONE CGM and haven't experienced life without fingersticks. Quen Blackford : And our next question comes from Chris Pasquale from Guggenheim. Go ahead, Chris.
Chris Pasquale
Thanks. I want to take you back on that last question. I think that that answer was constructive in terms of some of the differences here in, and so it leads me to wonder who you're targeting specifically with this platform. It sounds like with the loss of sharing, and predictive alerts this is probably not going to be a type 1 or pediatric product. Do you see this as a way to get more into the type 2 population specifically, is it a way to approach some emerging market territories where reimbursement may not be in place. We just love some thoughts on, where you see this going over time, which this product's really for? Thanks. Kevin Sayer : It's all of those things. Certainly, you look at the 4 countries that you launched in, they're not huge countries but they're markets where we've never been before. So with the e-commerce platform and the creative pricing structures we have for subscription plans and things of that nature, it gives a group of people access to our technology they've never had it before. And as far as the not sharing and not connecting today, ID systems you're exactly right. It -- is a lower level of technology with respect to connectivity, than what we offer and so it is targeted different people. Certainly will have access to more type 2 patients, and access to insulin users. But again, some of these geographic play in countries where there isn't anything. We felt this simpler solution is a better product offer out of the gate, than the other one. And then we'll evaluate over time what products we offer where. So you are right on point with pretty much all your observation. Quen Blackford : And we have no more questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to Kevin Sayer for final comments. Kevin Sayer : Thank you. And thank you, everyone for your questions and continued interest and support at DexCom. We've once again reported a number of important developments to position DexCom for the future on top of outstanding financial performance and continued growth. Going to wax a bit philosophical today, but my father passed away in late 2020, but he never missed an earnings call. Our routine after the calls was very simple. He'd call me up and he'd say, this is what you guys were trying to say. And he was pretty much always right on point. So preparing my closing remarks today, let me reiterate what we're trying to tell you. Leveraging growth continue, our 28% revenue growth achieved through sensor volume growth in excess of 40% demonstrates a continued commitment and talent of our commercial organization. Profitability continues to improve as well, yet we remain mindful of the investments we need to make in the future. Our global access strategy is working. We continue to achieve the numbers we've achieved while we've expanded access to our product globally through strategically shifting our customers to channels which result in reduced revenue per customer annually and yet margins have increased. Next, G7 is on schedule and it's coming. All of the efforts related G7 are moving at a frenetic pace around here. I've never seen our people so engaged in a single-minded purpose. And finally, our software development and data platform commitments are going to be critical in the future and you saw a big steps this quarter. We spent a great deal of time talking about software’s in differentiator today and we haven't over the past several months. You're beginning to see -- you're seeing the beginning of a great change with Dexcom ONE and the data sharing. And experience enhancing technologies recently approved by the FDA also demonstrate this. It's only the beginning. Our long term focus has always been for the data generated from our devices to be consumed in a way that really makes an impact on people's lives on their healthcare in general. Thanks and everybody have a great day. Quen Blackford : And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.