Casey's General Stores, Inc.

Casey's General Stores, Inc.

$391.3
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Specialty Retail

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Q1 2010 Earnings Call Transcript

Published at 2009-09-09 17:30:37
Executives
William J. Walljasper – Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President Robert J. Myers – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Analysts
: Ivy Jack – Barclays Capital Ben Brownlow – Morgan Keegan & Company Alex Bison – North Coast Research Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets [Anthony Levinsinski] – Sidoti & Company Michael Smith – Kansas City Capital
Operator
Welcome to the first quarter 2010 Casey’s General Store earnings conference call. My name is Janetta and I will be your operator for today. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. We will conduct a question and answer session towards the end of this conference. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Walljasper, Chief Financial Officer. William J. Walljasper: Thank you for joining us to discuss Casey’s results for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 ending July 31st. I am Bill Walljasper, Chief Financial Officer. Bob Myers, President and Chief Executive Officer is also here. I hope all of you had an opportunity to see the press release. If you haven’t, please let me know and I’ll make sure a copy is forwarded to you. Before I begin, I will remind you that certain statements may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. As discussed in the press release and the 2009 annual report, such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risk, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed or implied by those statements. Casey’s disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I’ll take a few minutes to summarize the quarter and then open for questions. As most of you have seen, the company had a strong first quarter with earnings per share of $0.87 compared to $0.57 a year ago. This strong performance was anchored by a near record gas margin, margin improvement inside our stores and solid sales across all categories. In all three months of this quarter we experienced a gas margin significantly ahead of our annual goal of $0.11 per gallon. As a result, our gas margin for the quarter was $0.157 per gallon. During the quarter the average retail price of gasoline was down nearly 38% to $2.35 per gallon compared to $3.70 per gallon a year ago. The lower retail price combined with softer comparisons from a year ago resulted in same store gallons up 3.2%. Total gallons sold were up 5.5% to 335.8 million. Gross profit in this category was up slightly to $52.7 million. Over the course of the last two fiscal years, we’ve experienced a very favorable gas margin environment. Retailers in our market area have been much more responsive to upper movement in wholesaler cost which as mitigated the negative impact on our gas margins during a time when gas margins have traditionally come under pressure. At the same time, due to increased volatility in this area, we believe retailers have become more hesitant to move prices downwards when there are decreases in wholesale costs. With this in mind, in eight out of the last nine quarters our gasoline margin has been above $0.12 per gallon. The gasoline margin environment in August continues to be above goal with positive same store gallon movement. Now, despite having one of the coolest summers on record, the grocery and general merchandise category still experienced solid gains. Total sales increased 8.4% to $297.4 million. Same store sales were up 6.4%. At the same time we were able to grow sales, we were also able to increase the margin 30 basis points to 34.3%. With this in mind, gross profit rose 9.2% to $102 million. The margin improvement primarily was attributable to cigarettes related to increased profitability as a result of the federal excise tax increase that went in to effect April 1st. Gross profit dollars in the cigarette area increased approximately $5.5 million in this first quarter than the same quarter a year ago. We are pleased with the gains in the grocery and other merchandise category especially due to the difficult comparisons from last year, adverse weather and a more challenging economy. Overall, total inside gross profit increased nearly 12%. In August, sales continue to be impacted by cooler weather and the shift in the labor day holiday weekend from August a year ago to September this year. The prepared food and fountain category continues to perform very well. Total sales were up 11.1% to $95.2 million. Same store sales were up 6.6%. The same store sales increase was on top of a 12.3% increase a year ago which makes the performance even more impressive. The increase was driven by the continued emphasis by having the right product available at the right time of day, strategic price increases and expansion in our coffee and fountain offerings. We also continued to benefit from the lower cost of cheese which we have locked in through October. The prepared food margin was up about 330 basis points to 63.8%. We should continue to experience strong margin gains next quarter. Gross profit dollars in the quarter were up 17% and August sales continue to be positive. Operating expenses in the quarter were down .3%. We continue to benefit from a lower gasoline cost environment that I mentioned previously. Credit card fees were down about 18.3% or $3 million and fuel expense was down over 44% or about $1.8 million. Also, the comparable period from a year ago had a $2.6 million impairment charge related to several stores that were damaged by the significant flooding in the upper Midwest. Our balance sheet continues to be strong. At the end of the quarter cash and cash equivalents were about $170.8 million up from $145.7 million at fiscal year end and shareholders’ equity rose to $762 million, up nearly $41 million from the end of fiscal year. We continue to pay down debt, long term debt net of current maturities was down $11.6 million to $156.2 million. At the end of the quarter average long term debt including the current portion to average total capital ratio was about 21%. On the income statement, total revenue was down 24.2% to $1.2 billion due to a 38% decrease in gasoline prices from last year offset by solid sales increases in the categories mentioned previously. The effective tax rate was 34.2%. The tax rate is down primarily due to the expiration of certain statute of limitations for unrecognized tax benefits related to prior worker opportunity tax credit claimed of approximately $2.2 million. The number of basic shares outstanding in the quarter was 50,863,579. The diluted share count was 50,996,302. We generated $74.5 million of cash from operations up from $61.5 million a year ago and capital expenditures were about $31.4 million. We expect capital expenditures to increase in the upcoming quarters as we anticipate closing on more acquisitions and accelerating more new construction. This quarter we opened five new store constructions and completed five replacements. Pending any unforeseen issues we should complete approximately 20 to 25 new store constructions this fiscal year. We currently have eight new stores under constructions and 13 replacement stores under construction. We anticipate that the remaining balance of our unit growth in relation to our goal will be through acquisitions. Even though we did not close on any acquisitions during the first quarter, we remain opportunistic about opportunities available. Our store count at the end of this quarter was 483. That completes my review of the quarter, we’ll now take your questions.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Ivy Jack – Barclays Capital. Ivy Jack – Barclays Capital: A quick question Bill, on the last call I think you mentioned that you had 15 I think oral agreements with respect to acquisitions and I think that included one midsized chains and some smaller chains? William J. Walljasper: That’s correct. Ivy Jack – Barclays Capital: I know you said you didn’t close any this quarter but can you give us an update in terms of how it looks and perhaps when you might expect some of these to close over the next few quarters? William J. Walljasper: I would say over the next several quarters we should start closing on some of these. Some of these have a tendency to take a little longer to close even though we have an oral agreement, you have to get it to the written agreement process and from that point there’s still an amount of due diligence with respect to drilling the site, with respect to environmental issues. So, it does have a little bit of a tail associated with it. Some of the oral agreements that I mentioned in the prior conference call, a few of those did flight out of the mix but we’re still optimistic with respect to our annual goal of 4% unit growth. Ivy Jack – Barclays Capital: Can you give us some kind of color or clarity in terms of fountain machines, kind of the gross profit dollar contribution versus say bottled beverages? Because, you said this quarter you replaced fountain machines in 200 to 300 stores, just to get a sense of what kind of impact that’s also having on the grocery margins? William J. Walljasper: Well obviously it’s a couple of things actually, it’s not only on the fountain side but it’s also on the coffee side. In the first quarter thus far we actually rolled out about 350 to 375 more iced coffee machines. We now have about 975 ice coffee machines out in our stores looking to continue that process over the next three quarters of this fiscal year. We rolled out about 60 10 head fountain machines to replace some older six head fountain machines. We’ll probably do about that same number on a per quarter basis for the remainder of the fiscal year. We haven’t really given out any specific metrics on the gross profit contribution with respect to fountain but I can tell you that when we roll out a 10 head machine with a six head machine we typically see somewhere in that 30% to 40% revenue lift in the fountain area.
Operator
Your next question comes from Ben Brownlow – Morgan Keegan & Company. Ben Brownlow – Morgan Keegan & Company: The responsive pricing environment that you commented on, how long do you think that is sustainable? William J. Walljasper: Well, that’s a tough question to answer Ben. I can tell you over the last two years we have seen that environment – now, eight out of the last nine quarters as I mentioned in the opening comments we’ve actually seen a margin over $0.12, the quarter that we didn’t see was somewhat of an anomaly. If you recall last roughly October, we had a very, very sharp drop in wholesale costs and retail, that was the particular quarter we did not exceed the $0.12. How far it will last and whether it is sustainable I would hesitate to even try and make a guess on that but certainly we are seeing it at least for the last two years where as I mentioned, when wholesale costs rise the retail environment is very quick to make movements upwards in response to that. Consequently, we’re very in tune to our competitive landscape so we’re making similar adjustments as we monitor the competitive landscape surrounding the store. The other part of it that is equally productive for us Ben, is when we see wholesale costs come down we believe the retailers certainly are hesitant or reluctant to move down with that simply because there has been increased volatility over the past couple of years relative to the last 20 and they know that maybe in the next day or two that wholesale cost may jump back up. So, in both situations we’re seeing a benefit on the margins side and we’re hopeful that will continue. Ben Brownlow – Morgan Keegan & Company: The cigarette gross profit gains that you talked about, do you think that is more due to a trade down effect, or do you think that’s more of the fair trade states? William J. Walljasper: Well, it more has to do with the fair trade. Half of our stores are located in fair trade states, the others are non fair trade states. So, in those states that we operate that do have a state minimum, certainly we’re seeing a benefit when that state minimum is applied to a higher retail obviously with the increased tax, we are seeing a benefit in gross profit dollars. We also are seeing a shift in the pack to carton distribution. Right now, at least in the first quarter about 70% to 71% of the cigarettes sold are packs versus cartons, a year ago that was about 65% to 66% so that certainly is helping on the margin side of the equation. It actually will eventually help on the gross profit dollar side because people who buy three of four packs have their normal smoking routine, come back buy two or three more packs and then come back and buy two or three more packs so at the end of the day there’s probably higher gross profit dollars associated with those transactions than it would have been with respect to them just buying a carton. So, we are seeing a benefit from the federal excise tax. As I mentioned, a $5.5 million gross profit increase in Q1. We certainly should see a benefit in the next several quarters until we cycle through this. Ben Brownlow – Morgan Keegan & Company: Those states that are not fair trade you’re seeing more competitive pricing on the cigarettes? William J. Walljasper: It’s in pockets. We actually have gone through an analysis and looked at fair trade versus non fair trade states to see kind of what the dynamics of the cigarette category. We have not seen an extremely competitive marketplace with respect to our non fair trade states, we are still seeing a very, very solid margin in those. You’re not seeing a lot of people chase volume. Again, there will be pockets where that will happen but overall we haven’t seen that so again, that will be to our benefit as well. Ben Brownlow – Morgan Keegan & Company: Then just one last question for me, and I hate to ask you to speculate too much, but how much do you think the beer and beverages were a drag to the grocery comps in the margins? William J. Walljasper: Well, I can tell you that the beer and beverage were both negative recently on a same store sales basis. What we’re seeing, and it would be hard for me to give you that number but I can tell you this maybe to provide a little more color, we’re seeing negative movement due to the cooler weather in the beverage category and the beer category. Also, in the beer there is a trade down phenomena that’s happened that is affecting the margin. You’re seeing as a result people go from the premium brand to the popular brand and they’re buying more bulk packaging than they would be normally. Those carry a lower margin than the smaller packaging so there definitely is a drag. Just to remind you, and everybody, the majority of labor day weekend did fall in August of last year versus September of this year. That certainly is a pull back with respect to August same store sales across all lines this particular August.
Operator
Your next question comes from Alex Bison – North Coast Research. Alex Bison – North Coast Research: A couple of questions for you, I’m wondering if you could just mention or discuss traffic in the quarter? William J. Walljasper: You mean customer count? Alex Bison – North Coast Research: Yes. William J. Walljasper: Actually Alex, customer count has been slightly negative ever since October, last fall. That’s when we had that very sharp drop in retail prices that correspond to that very sharp drop in wholesale costs. What would happen at that point, you saw the average gallon per transaction increase significantly and on a comparative basis period-over-period you’re still seeing that differential so consequently I think when people come to our stores to purchase gasoline they’re filling up more gallons in their tank than they had been so there’s one less reason to come back as frequent. So, it has been tracking slightly negative for some time. I don’t believe it has anything to do with any market share loss. I think that would be reflected in same stores sales and it certainly hasn’t been since then. Alex Bison – North Coast Research: What about just in store traffic? William J. Walljasper: In store traffic I think certainly is – we really base it by transactions. We have a guy that would clear a gas transaction at the pump come in to purchase a cup of coffee, that would register as two transactions so it’s a little bit harder to quantify. I think if we had some traffic inside the store drop significantly it would be reflected in our same store sales. Now, the cooler weather Alex certainly would affect some traffic in parts of our areas, especially the resort areas, obviously people not going out as much and maybe not having a need as much for some of the more seasonal aspects like beer, and beverages, and ice, that certainly would play in to it. Alex Bison – North Coast Research: If my memory serves me, I believe you’re paying about $1.68 for cheese? Where do you think cheese costs would be in the spot market? William J. Walljasper: They’re right about $1.40. Futures would be significantly higher than that, more like $1.65. Now, that doesn’t necessarily include the processing and freight. When we talk about $1.68 that’s an all in cost for us, that’s the product, the processing to get it through to a shredded product and the freight as well. Alex Bison – North Coast Research: I guess just one final one about acquisitions, certainly strong gasoline profitability over the last couple of quarters and I was just wondering in response to the strong gasoline profitability if you could discuss seller’s expectations and how seller’s expectations have been trending? William J. Walljasper: Actually, starting last fiscal year we did see seller expectations starting to come in line a little bit more with what our expectations would be. So, I think that gap is narrowing but certainly there could be a disconnect because of the continued high gasoline margin environment. But, at some point Alex, if this is a sustainable environment, I think everything will be realigned having that in mind. So, we’re still optimistic. We’re certainly positioned very well, we have plenty of cash, we have the ability to go out and raise capital very quickly to take advantage of opportunities and we still think there’s going to be those opportunities out there. The gap is narrowing and we’re certainly hopeful.
Operator
Your next question comes from Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: A couple of housekeeping, for your tax rate going forward then, is 34% the rate we should be thinking about? William J. Walljasper: No, I would not think about that rate, I would think about more 37% to 37.5% on a go forward basis. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: Then, I don’t know if you gave it when you talked about credit card, what’s the utilization now on credit card this year versus last year? William J. Walljasper: Right now it seems like we have somewhat plateau about half of our sales, when I say sales the revenues that we made on credit cards. That would be down a little bit but probably more significantly is the actual credit card transactions, they were up about 8% in the quarter relative to the first quarter a year ago. As you may recall, that was trending more in the 25% to 30% increase probably over the last there years. So, it has slowed significantly, we seem to be kind of falling in to half of our sales credit card half cash. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: And percent of transactions? William J. Walljasper: On a percent of the revenue. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: Right but, what percent of transactions? William J. Walljasper: About the same. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: Then just looking at the tobacco, now what was it in the quarter as a percent of in store sales? Do you know that number this year versus last year? William J. Walljasper: It’s actually about 40% of the grocery and general merchandise category. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: And it was about flat year-over-year? William J. Walljasper: It’s up a little bit as you would expect with higher revenue. It use to be tracking more about 37% to 38%, the grocery and general merchandise. So, overall it’s tracking about 10% or 11% of total revenue but that fluctuations obviously with gasoline. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: Then I guess just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the Subway program, how many stores do you have it in now and some additional color on how it’s working? William J. Walljasper: We have it in roughly 65 to 70 locations. I can tell you – we haven’t given any metrics out on that because it’s still very young. The first one we actually opened up was back in September so as we head in to the second quarter and start cycling some of these on a year-over-year basis we’ll certainly start providing more data to the investment community. But, I can tell you that we are very pleased with the results we are seeing in that area. Everything we’ve seen thus far certainly gives us the confidence that it’s a program that’s going to be a sustainable program for us. Maybe not in all of our stores Karen but certainly in a good portion of our stores. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: When you factor in shrink associated with learning curve and things like that and additional labor do you still feel good about it? William J. Walljasper: Even with those [inaudible] are very viable factors currently as we kind of find our way with respect to labor with this new program and stale factor with this new program, even with that we’re very encouraged. So, as we get better and better at running this program I think you’ll continue to see the roll out. All the stores that we build currently and replace have that program. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: I guess then just switching to that can you maybe talk a little bit – I don’t know if you can give more color on the return profile of your larger stores? And, I guess on that note, given the environment you did comment that you’re noticing slightly changes in behavior, is there a little more risk to ruling out a slightly larger store profile? William J. Walljasper: We don’t believe so at this point. Nothing that we see in the preliminary results of those larger format stores would give us pause to say that perhaps we should pull back that particular design. I think it’s really for us making sure that – and that design is not going to work everywhere either Karen so certainly we are looking to the communities where we think that design is going to fit the best not only on new store construction but on replacement stores as well. So, nothing would give us pause on that and as far as the recurring goes again, nothing would give us pause that would say that it’s not going to get us to the returns that we anticipate to offset the additional costs. But again, we have not even cycled a full year of the business with one of those new stores so I would hesitate to give any information out at this point.
Operator
Your next question comes from [Anthony Levinsinski] – Sidoti & Company. [Anthony Levinsinski] – Sidoti & Company: Just a few questions here, can you talk about cigarettes and the margin difference that you’re seeing between your fair trade states and non fair trade states? William J. Walljasper: I can talk a little bit about that Anthony. I mean we’ve never necessarily dwelled in to this in great detail but when we looked at a break out of fair trade states and non fair trade states we were trying to look for a correlation in our non fair trade states that perhaps the margins in those states were significantly lower than what they had been in relation to the fair trade states. We have really not seen that correlation so basically after the federal excise tax went in to effect we’ve been able to maintain margin and actually grow margin in nearly all of the states that we operate. So, that tells me that we don’t have an extremely competitive environment with respect to people shaking volume out there on the packs in our non fair trade states. So, we have not seen a significant differential in that correlation since that went in to effect which is why we’re seeing such a large increase in gross profit dollars within that area. [Anthony Levinsinski] – Sidoti & Company: Then as far as the prepared food segment, are you looking to lock in cheese prices beyond October? And also, can you just remind us what your cheese costs were for Q2, Q3 and Q4 of fiscal ’09? William J. Walljasper: To answer the first part of that question Anthony, we are always looking for opportunities to lock in the cost of cheese. Right now we don’t think that there’s an opportunity to do that. We still believe there’s plenty of inventory of the product out there and we’ll be looking at that a little more aggressively come October. I mean the futures, as I mentioned earlier, are still relatively high and for us to lock in obviously we have to have a supplier of that product as well. But yes, we’re always looking to do that. As far as costs for comparable purposes, Q2 of last year the average cost of cheese was $2.10 per pound, Q3 was $1.79 per pound and then Q4 was $1.68 per pound. So, we still have some favorable comparisons and have tailwinds there and we’re certainly optimistic we should have some margin expansion in the prepared food category.
Operator
Your next question comes from Michael Smith – Kansas City Capital. Michael Smith – Kansas City Capital: Okay, the tax rate doesn’t change for the year you just had a onetime special credit this quarter? William J. Walljasper: We had numerous tax credits that flow, this happens to be a workers opportunity tax credit. You hire certain individuals that fall in to the program, we receive tax credits in relation to that. Sometimes that programs goes in to what I call a hiatus period that needs to be renewed. We still process the tax credits but can’t necessarily apply those to the financials until the program actually is renewed and then the IRS would have to either have a couple of years to look at that. That statute fell off in June I believe and certainly that $2.2 million tax credit flow through, and that would be about a $0.04 number on the quarter. Michael Smith – Kansas City Capital: How much have you raised the price of pizza and donuts and your prepared foods? William J. Walljasper: Well, we started raising it a couple of years ago with respect to the prepared foods category. As you might recall, commodity prices certainly started to rise back in fiscal 2008 and carried in to fiscal 2009. Not only were commodity prices rising but we also started seeing diesel fuel surcharges on some of the freight of that product. To offset some of those pressures we did start taking some price increase. The pizza was probably the biggest bang for your buck. We’ve actually increased that over the last two and a half fiscal years a total of $2 per single large topping pizza. Some of the other products we would have raised as well like in the coffee category the donuts. Certainly we look at that at all times to see whether or not strategic price increases are a viable option for us. We do competitive pricing surveys within this category on a monthly basis. I receive those monthly so we’re very in tune with our market area as to where those prices are.
Operator
Your next question comes from Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: Actually, just a follow up on that, you said your prepared food margin obviously this quarter benefited from the cheese hedge but also prices increases. I calculated the cheese was about 200 basis points benefit, is that about right? William J. Walljasper: That’s pretty close. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: So when do you cycle the price increases? William J. Walljasper: We cycle the price increase come this October. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: Your price increase on pizza? William J. Walljasper: No, there’s no price increases on pizza. The only price increase that we’re getting benefit from currently is the price increase we took last October in our fountain area. Karen Short – BMO Capital Markets: So after that we cycle everything? William J. Walljasper: Correct.
Operator
Your next question comes from Ivy Jack – Barclays Capital. Ivy Jack – Barclays Capital: Bill, you mentioned earlier in the call that you are certainly benefiting from your competitors being a little more responsive to wholesale gas prices. I don’t know if you can but can you help us reconcile the fact that you see kind of smaller independents being more responsive to gas prices but at the same time there is still kind of a hesitancy to want to exit the business. William J. Walljasper: Well, there’s a couple of things there Ivy, you are exactly right we have seen over the last two fiscal years higher than historical gas margins. Our gas pricing philosophy hasn’t changed in the last two years nor has it changed in the last 20 years. We certainly try to figure out who our competition is for any specific store. I think we’ll check that gas price accordingly throughout the day and make adjustments. We are seeing a more responsive environment from our retailers to offset several things, first of all, increased utilization from the last two to three years in credit cards has put a little bit of pressure on the fee structure or operating expenses for operators. It has for us and for the smaller operators. Also, the last couple of years the dynamics of the economic environment has changed which puts pressure on the working capital as well so retailers are looking to offset those two areas. The low hanging fruit or the quickest way to do that is on the gas margin so I believe that’s what’s happening with respect to the retail environment in our market area at least. But, nevertheless they’re offsetting it and then some to look at a higher net margin so consequently there’s still a little disconnect with respect to expectations to buy their business. I think that will start to shrink even more as we head in to this fiscal year. We started seeing that probably about mid way through last fiscal year and we’re starting to see it come in line. We do have a lot of what I wills say acquisitions that we’re reviewing in the pipeline, more than we’ve seen in the past so not all of them will come to fruition, not all of them will come to oral agreements or written agreements but certainly we’re encouraged by the activity that we’re seeing.
Operator
Your next question comes from Michael Smith – Kansas City Capital. Michael Smith – Kansas City Capital: Bill, I was just wondering if you could give us or quantify how many acquisitions you’re in touch with that you’ve got verbal agreements with roughly? William J. Walljasper: With respect to oral agreements we’re roughly about 10 currently. Certainly we have considerably more than that what I will call under negotiations. Michael Smith – Kansas City Capital: 10 stores or 10 agreements? William J. Walljasper: 10 stores. Then, certainly we have considerably more than that under negotiation that we have actually had some sharing of financial information and we’re looking to come to a financial agreement. Then certainly, quite a bit more than that under review which means we’re in the due diligence process and certainly these stores have shown an interest in discussing and sharing information with respect to the potential sale of their business.
Operator
At this time there are no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Bill Walljasper for any closing remarks. William J. Walljasper: I’d like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. As a reminder, same store sales for August will be released September 15th. Thanks for joining us and have a good morning.
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.