Barrick Gold Corporation

Barrick Gold Corporation

€15.44
-0.16 (-1.03%)
Frankfurt Stock Exchange
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Gold

Barrick Gold Corporation (ABR.DE) Q4 2017 Earnings Call Transcript

Published at 2018-02-15 14:10:53
Executives
Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp. Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp. Rick Sims - Barrick Gold Corp. Greg Walker - Barrick Gold Corp. Sham Chotai - Barrick Gold Corp. Henri Gonin - Barrick Gold Corp.
Analysts
John Bridges - JPMorgan Securities LLC Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets (Canada) David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc. Thomas David Holl - BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities, Inc. Greg Barnes - TD Securities, Inc. Tanya Jakusconek - Scotiabank Brian MacArthur - Raymond James Ltd. Chris Terry - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Stephen David Walker - RBC Capital Markets
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Barrick 2017 Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded and a replay will be available on Barrick's website tonight, February 15, 2018. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelvin Dushnisky. Please go ahead. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Before we begin, I'd like to highlight, during this presentation, we'll be making forward-looking statements. This slide includes the summary of the significant risks and other factors that could affect Barrick's future performance and our ability to deliver on these forward-looking statements. A review of our most recent AIF will provide you with a more complete discussion. I'm here today with our Chief Financial Officer, Catherine Raw; our Chief Operating Officer, Richard Williams; and our Vice President of Reserves and Resources, Rick Sims. As has become our practice, our other general managers and members of the Barrick team will also be available for questions following the formal portion of the call. I would also like to note that next week, on February 22, we'll be hosting a webcast Investor Day where we plan to provide detailed updates on our operations, projects and strategic priorities. At the start of 2017, as we did the year prior and the year before that, we identified a clear set of priorities and we committed to stay focused on them. Our first priority was to maximize free cash flow. In 2017, our operations generated over $2 billion of operating cash flow and nearly $670 million of free cash flow. This allowed us to increase reinvestment in the future of our business during the year. While doing so, we maintained our focus on capital discipline as we advance our pipeline of low-risk organic projects. These projects have the potential to contribute more than 1 million ounces to our production profile and cost well below our current portfolio average. During the year, we forged a new strategic partnership with Shandong Gold at Veladero. This is an important relationship that has the potential to create long-term value for our owners, as well as our community and government partners in Argentina and potentially beyond. In 2017, we reclassified 14 million ounces of Pascua-Lama's proven and probable gold reserves to measured and indicated resources. At the same time, our track record of adding reserves and resources through investment and exploration was evident last year as we added more than 8 million ounces of proven and probable reserves through drilling at our existing operations and the Goldrush project, more than replacing the ounces depleted through processing. Achieving and maintaining a strong balance sheet has been and remains a top priority. In 2017, we reduced our total debt by over $1.5 billion, exceeding our original target for the year, and our liquidity also continues to improve. We now have less than $100 million of debt due before 2020 and the majority of our debt, in fact more than 75% of it is due post 2032. Our capital allocation goal is centered on restoring our balance sheet to withstand gold price volatility, investing to improve the quality of our asset base and rewarding shareholders with reliable dividend. During the year, we returned more capital to shareholders with a 50% increase in our quarterly dividend at $0.03 cents per share. Our operations produced a little more than 5.3 million ounces of gold in 2017 at cash cost of $526 per ounce and all-in sustaining cost of $750 an ounce in line with our revised full-year guidance. This production reflects the mid-year sale of 50% of Veladero to Shandong and the all-in sustaining cost reflects a planned increase in mine site sustaining capital. At the same time, we were able to reduce our cash cost by $20 an ounce, which reflects our ongoing drive to improve productivity along with the higher contribution from lower cost operations. As part of the effort to improve our cost structure, we continued to advance our digital program in Nevada, which started last year at Cortez. Our final and maybe most important objective is to focus on talent and we're putting in place the programs needed to develop the next generation of Barrick leaders. So, we're pleased with the company's performance last year, but it was not without its challenges; two are notable. In March, a pipe burst at our Veladero leach pad, resulting in the temporary suspension of operations. The mine returned to normal operations in July and we're pleased that Veladero continues to have local community and government support. As many of you know, challenges at Acacia were also in the headlines last year, and we're hopeful that a proposal, agreeable to all parties, will be reached by mid-year. So to summarize 2017, we set ambitious targets and despite the challenges I just discussed, we met them and we're on solid footing heading into this year. Our priorities for 2018 remain consistent. We'll continue to progress toward building a business that can generate free cash flow at a gold price of $1,000 an ounce on a sustainable basis. We'll drive our mines to achieve greater levels of productivity, pushing down unit costs and increasing throughput. We'll maintain capital discipline and continue to strengthen the balance sheet. By the end of 2018, we intend to reduce our total debt to about $5 billion, and as we have for the past three years, we'll achieve this through a combination of cash on hand, cash flow from operations and potential divestments. We'll also invest capital back into the business and progress our project pipelines. Exploration has been one of Barrick's primary value drivers for a long time and we'll continue an exploration focus at our existing core districts. In addition to advancing the various organic opportunities within the portfolio, we'll continue to evaluate external opportunities, but we'll only proceed if we're confident that they would increase the long-term value of the business. And finally, we'll attract top talent and develop our teams to succeed in our decentralized operating model. Before I turn things over to Richard, I want to acknowledge the exceptional efforts and dedication of the entire Barrick team in delivering our 2017 results. I know they're enthusiastic to continue to perform this year. With that, I'll ask Richard to walk you through our 2017 operating highlights and our outlook for 2018 and beyond. Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Kelvin. Our most important operational priority continues to be to ensure the safety of our people and the sustainability of the environment within which we operate. Over the course of 2017, we improved our safety performance to deliver a total reportable injury frequency rate of 0.35, which for us is the lowest in the history of the company. And while we're extremely proud of this accomplishment, regrettably, it was overshadowed by the tragic deaths of two of our team members during the year. Firstly, Williams Garrido, while making improvements on our water management system at Pascua-Lama. And then, secondly, Bot Gutierrez at Hemlo who was struck by a piece of mobile equipment working underground. Our thoughts now and will continue to be so with their families, their teammates and their friends while we work towards every person at Barrick going home safe and healthy every day. Consistent, and moving on from this, consistent with our overall improvement trend in safety, we achieved a 38% reduction in reportable environmental incidents at our operations last year, another large milestone. And we also introduced, furthering this, our climate change strategy which targets a 30% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030. As Kelvin mentioned, our digital transformation continues to progress. We laid the foundation last year through a series of pilot projects at Cortez and we'll continue to build on this in 2018, with its primary focus remaining in Barrick Nevada. As part of this, and an essential underpinning of it, we're going to complete version 1 of the Barrick Data Fabric. This Data Fabric is an enterprise grade big data analytics platform that provides a unified data environment for the company. We will also, on that basis, accelerate the implementation of digital projects across other operations including expanded use of automated processing systems, short interval control, digital work management and automation, and more of this will follow in detail at our upcoming Investor Day on February 22. Now, on to our year-end operating results. Annual gold production was at 5.32 million ounces, in line with the adjusted annual guidance of 5.3 million to 5.5 million. All-in sustaining costs increased by 3% year-on-year, primarily reflecting an increase in mine site sustaining CapEx. And we reduced our cash cost by almost 4% from $546 an ounce in 2016 to $526 an ounce in 2017, reflecting our ongoing focus on driving productivity and efficiency improvements across our portfolio. On the copper side, annual copper production was 413 million pounds at an all-in sustaining cost of $2.34 a pound. Okay, on to 2018 gold production. This is estimated to be between 4.5 million ounces to 5 million ounces with a cost of sales in the range of $810 to $850 an ounce and all-in sustaining cost of $765 to $815 an ounce. The higher cost guidance, that's cash cost and capital – sustaining capital for 2018 primarily reflects lower anticipated production from Barrick Nevada, PV and Veladero, and increased processing of higher cost inventory and higher costs at Acacia. In terms of timing, 2018 production is expected to be weighted towards the second half of the year. And the other point to note is in the first quarter, largely owing to lower grade expected in Barrick Nevada coupled with the timing of maintenance at PV, we expect production of around 1 million ounces at higher costs than we anticipate for the remainder of the year. As Kelvin mentioned, we are increasing our investments into the future of the business. Full-year CapEx for 2018 is expected to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion, including project CapEx of $450 million to $550 million, which is a significant increase in capital expenditures around $270 million as compared to last year. Onto copper, we anticipate production in the order of 385 million pounds to 450 million pounds, the expected cost of sales to be $1.80 to $2.10 with an AISCs of $2.30 to $2.40. Now, looking further ahead, and to provide more clarity on our future production and cost and capital profile, we're providing longer term directional guidance for 2019 to 2022. We expect gold production to average between 4.2 million ounces to 4.6 million ounces, with average cost of sales to be between $850 to $980, and an average all-in sustaining cost of between $750 to $875 per ounce. As you will remember, in 2016, we set ourselves the ambitious aspiration of achieving an all-in sustaining cost of under $700 an ounce. We focused our efforts on ensuring that our core assets were capable of maintaining that cost structure over the long term and we've made significant strides towards driving costs out of our business; however, not sufficient to offset the change in production profile. In addition, as you can see from our presentation today, we are making deliberate decisions to invest in our assets in order to deliver high-quality, higher margin ounces for the future, for example, through the Minex and our digital program. And this has meant we've had to adjust our expectations around costs in the near term. So at this time, we're expecting costs in 2019 and 2020 to be towards the upper end of guidance. However, given our current focus on optimizing our planning process and delivering further cost improvements, our intention will be strived towards the lower end of guidance range by 2021. Capital expenditures are expected to be in the range of $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion for 2019 through 2022, roughly 30% of which will be for growth capital. It's expected that going forward, further capital could be deployed on additional projects at our core sites. We're developing concepts for such opportunities in Nevada and in PV now. We'll be going into more detail on this during our Investor Day, which as you know is the afternoon of February 22. Please join us for our webcast and the details can be found on our website. I will now pass the call over to Catherine to go through the financials. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Richard. Net earnings for the year were $1.44 billion or $1.23 per share. Adjusted net earnings increased to $876 million or $0.75 per share compared to $0.70 last year. And this was mainly due to higher metal prices combined with lower direct mining costs, a lower relative sales contribution from higher cost operations, such as Acacia, and lower inventory write-downs compared to 2016. Our operating cash flow was over $2 billion in 2017, lower than 2016, mainly due to buildup of metals inventory at Pueblo Viejo, Lagunas Norte and, of course, Acacia, impacting working capital as well as lower gold sales driven by the 50% sale of Veladero as well as the impact of the concentrate ban affecting Acacia's operations. Free cash flow for the year was $669 million, equivalent to a gold price breakeven at $1,096 an ounce. Our lower year-over-year free cash flow reflects the lower operating cash flow combined with higher capital expenditures as we continue to reinvest in the business. Onto the balance sheet. As Kelvin mentioned, we exceeded our 2017 debt repayments target achieving a total debt reduction of $1.51 billion. Our goal remains to reduce out total debt to around $5 billion by the end of this year. However, with our bonds now trading at between 119%, 125% premium to par, we will only take those actions where the risk/reward tradeoff makes sense. We'll keep you updated as to progress over the course of the year. At the end of 2017, we had $2.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents and remained fully undrawn on our $4 billion credit facility. And as you can see from this slide, the majority of our debt is due after 2032 with under $100 million of debt due before 2020. This de-risk profile allows us to progress our project pipeline without worrying about future gold price volatility. Following on from Richard's 2018 guidance, I just wanted to provide a bit more detail on some of the other guidance items, which can also be found in detail in our MD&A. Our effective tax rate is expected to be between 41% and 43% based on current spot prices. 2018 finance costs are expected to be lower than last year, given our debt reductions today to the range of between $500 million and $550 million. We expect to incur between $185 million and $225 million of exploration and evaluation expenditures, mainly focused on greenfield exploration of brownfield projects in the Americas. We expect to incur between $140 million and $180 million of project expenses, consisting mainly of current maintenance costs and preparation work to (17:02) underground mine at Pascua-Lama. And finally, we anticipate G&A to be high year-on-year, with corporate administration costs of approximately $275 million. As Richard has already alluded to, this includes investments in improving our enterprise-wide processes and systems or otherwise known as the Barrick Data Fabric. So, moving on to tax reform. I just wanted to cover this in a bit more detail here to address any questions that may arise. In late 2017, tax reform was enacted in the U.S. and included a reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, a repeal of the corporate AMT and a mandatory repatriation of earnings and profits from foreign corporations. We've reviewed all of the provisions impacted by the reform and the result was a net positive adjustment to Barrick of approximately $200 million. I'd now like to hand it over to Rick Sims to take us through our 2017 year-end reserves update. Rick Sims - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Catherine. The reserves I'm going to talk about today are based on a constant price of $1,200 per ounce. This differs from last year where we used a price of $1,000 for the first five years of our mine lives. As Kelvin told you in 2017, we added 8 million ounces of new reserves, replacing 1.3 times our production depletion. Much of this was a direct result of our successful Minex drilling programs. The underground mines were key in our production replacement, particularly the Nevada mines, Turquoise Ridge and Barrick Nevada. In fact, Turquoise Ridge, Goldstrike, Cortez and Hemlo combined to add 4.3 million ounces of new underground reserves, replacing over 4 times their combined production depletion. Also, Goldrush added 1.5 million ounces of new underground reserves. The increase in high-grade underground reserves and the divestment of 25% of Cerro Casale and 50% of Veladero has increased our reserve gold grade from 1.33 grams per ton to 1.55 grams per ton, an increase of 17%. And by the way, that 8 million ounces of new reserves had an average grade of over 3.5 grams per ton. Also shown here in the slide is a reduction of 9.2 million ounces associated with the divestments of 25% of Cerro Casale and 50% of Veladero, as well as the reclassification of the 14 million ounces of Pascua-Lama reserves to resources as Kelvin mentioned. Our M&I and inferred resources used a gold price of $1,500 per ounce, and in 2017 the acquisition of 50% of Caspiche added 11.6 million ounces to our M&I resource. This was offset by 3.4 million ounces divested at Cerro Casale and Veladero. The underground reserve additions we just spoke about at Turquoise Ridge made the TR open pit resource uneconomic at the $1,500 gold price. So after equity changes, Pascua Lama reclassifications and the TR open pit removal, our M&I resource was slightly lower than last year. But in that, removals totaled 3 million ounces, while open pit additions totaled 2.4 million ounces and underground additions totaled 6.4 million ounces. On inferred, after equity and TR open pit adjustments, we added 9.1 million ounces, again largely the result of our Minex programs. Many of these resources are ready to go into reserves with additional Minex drilling. And the detail, we removed about 2.5 million ounces, while open pit additions were 4.5 million ounces, and underground additions totaled 7 million ounces. We'll talk a little bit about copper and for the copper reserves we used a constant price of $2.75 a pound and this differs also from last year where we had a $2.25 price for the first five years. And the copper portfolio was significantly strengthened this year as Lumwana added over 2 billion pounds of reserves, directly the result of really good work done by the Lumwana team in lowering their open pit mining costs. Now, I'd like to hand it back to Kelvin for some closing remarks. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Rick. Well, that concludes the presentation. Just before we open the call to question, I want to mention an organizational change. We're separating the Investor Relations and Governance functions, which are presently combined in one role. Daniel Oh will continue his Governance Engagement responsibilities and Deni Nicoski will lead the IR function as Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Deni will be known to many of you and we're confident that his deep understanding of the business will make for a very seamless transition. So, thank you, Daniel, and welcome, Deni. Now, let's open the line for questions, please.
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question comes from John Bridges of JPMorgan. Please go ahead, sir. John Bridges - JPMorgan Securities LLC: Hi. Good morning, Kelvin, everybody. I just wondered, you've been paying down debt and you did that again this year. Looking forward, I'm guessing that with costs rising, you're going to be sort of flipping to a more neutral position. And then as you start to build mines, you're going to be pulling into that credit facility and whatever. When do you expect that sort of flip over from paying down debt to spending money on new projects to occur? That's my first question. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Well, John, as we indicated, we intend next year to continue to working down the debt and we (23:08) our target. As far as flipping into the credit facility, (23:12) mentioned, but Catherine, maybe you could respond with more details. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah. So, John, we've been very clear in terms of that long-term target of $5 billion and really there are two reasons around that. One is that debt really is due post 2032, so the liquidity pressure and the risk associated with near-term liquidity in a volatile gold price is much less. And the second thing is around our credit rating and wanting to just be sure that we have a solid investment grade credit rating again in a volatile gold price environment. When you look at our current plans in terms of our three Nevada projects and looking (23:50) those would be funded at our $1,200 gold price assumption through our free cash flow. So at this point in time, there's no intention to do anything with our debt in terms of increasing and I would say our ambition still is to have a conservative, robust balance sheet over time. John Bridges - JPMorgan Securities LLC: Okay. Thank you. And then just a follow-up on DR, I see they'll be building a coal fired power plant. There were plans originally I think that when something like that happened you may access that potentially cheaper power. Would you be able to get to that? Is there an agreement in place to access lower cost power? Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Well, John, we have Greg Walker here. He was the GM at PV. So, Greg, maybe you can respond to that. Greg Walker - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thank you, Kelvin. John, (24:39) in PV and generated a line power to supply the mine site. In fact, we generated surplus power. We had the capacity to generate surplus power and we'll actually be delivering power into the grid at the revenue stream. And we'll be also looking at converting that power station to a LNG gas power station, which will help drive our operating cost down. Those strategies are all built into our current life of mine plan for PV. John Bridges - JPMorgan Securities LLC: Okay, clear. Thanks. Greg Walker - Barrick Gold Corp.: (25:09) the answer is no, we don't – we want to open the coal fired power plant as mentioned. John Bridges - JPMorgan Securities LLC: Okay. Thanks a lot. Good luck, guys. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, John.
Operator
The next question comes from Andrew Kaip who is with BMO. Please go ahead. Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets (Canada): Good morning, and thank you very much for taking my call. Look, I've got a couple of questions, maybe to Richard and Catherine. Regarding the additional capital that you forecasted for this year, the approximately $270 million of additional capital, can you give us a bit of visibility on where that capital is being spent? Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: So, Andrew, I'll answer this question. We actually give you a sort of brief overview of that in the MD&A. And so, that additional $270 million is on growth capital, specifically. And it's really focused at our Nevada operation. So, it's on our Cortez Hills underground or I should – the range front declines, the underground development, the Goldrush declines and as well as some minor growth capital elsewhere in the portfolio. It also includes some capital on the Norte Abierto joint venture. Now, remember that that capital is funded by Goldcorp. Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets (Canada): Okay, no, thanks. And thanks for clarifying that. The other question I have is just about the higher G&A, particularly related to the digital integration and upgrading of your digital capacity within your operations. I presume that that additional spending is going to be around for a couple of years. And I'm just wondering if you can give us a sense of how we should be thinking about that post 2018. Should we be looking at more capital in 2018? And when can we expect that to begin to decline or will it decline, I guess is my question? Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thank you. It's a great question, Andrew. We have Sham here as well who may come in as a backfill. But let's – where we are, Andrew, on the investments in the Barrick Data Fabric is – it's going to go back one step. We took the decision this year to integrate our digital team with the previous IMT or IT team because there were opportunities to rationalize that organization in the normal good sense of business, but there was also an opportunity to bring in new ideas from our digital team as to how we can build what we call the Data Fabric that is much more efficient than anything we've had up to now. So, it's our expectation that the investments in the Barrick Data Fabric will over time improve the efficiency of that system, which by definition will include reducing its running costs and increasing its output. The version 1 of the Barrick Data Fabric is going to be built through this year and we have an aggressive timetable for that. So, by the second half of the year we're expecting to see it working. The functionality from that will improve our ability at what we call corporate or portfolio level to gather data, manage money flows and predict i.e., forecast. But also down at the mine site level, will allow us to manage all the insight we need to make the topographic decisions that improve productivity. I would chime in short interval control. So to answer your question is, do we expect the increased G&A coming in for digital to be a fixed cost that rolls on at that number year-on-year-on-year, no, it's our expectation that we can be investing in systems that will reduce the running cost not just of the central component, but the elements down at the mining sites as well over time. But you'll recognize, Andrew, and you heard this before, this is an iterative process and this is why we're doing it in tranches and we're being very disciplined about it. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: But, Andrew, just to answer your question basing to your model, I would assume that we are spending at these rates probably for another couple years. When you look at the upgrade systems, when you look at the investments we need to making our ELP, we will see offsetting savings coming through from the underlying operations, but ultimately some of these things and it's the reason we put it in G&A, are really just the fact of needing to invest and upgrade the systems that we currently own, and I'll let Sham perhaps to just finish off that thoughts. Sham Chotai - Barrick Gold Corp.: So good morning, everyone. That's exactly right. We're on an aggressive two-year acceleration plan. So as Catherine mentioned and Richard, we're driving a lot of productivity, and the idea here really is over the next few years that it would pay for itself and we see the efficiency throughout our operations as productivity, safety, it's all the things that you would expect. It's really about modernizing our systems and setting up for the growth that we expect in (30:19). Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets (Canada): All right. Thanks. Thank you very much. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Andrew.
Operator
The next question comes from David Haughton who's with CIBC. Please go ahead. David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.: Good morning, Kelvin and team. Thank you for the update. Just further to Andrew's question about the CapEx breakdown, can we expect to see a more itemized breakdown of the $450 million to $500 million for 2018 on the Investor Day? Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah, David, you're right. David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.: Okay. Because the kind of guidance that we had before it was sort of not sufficient to be able to input into our models. The other question I've got is looking at the exploration budget. So in Richard's discussion, he was talking about a greater focus there, but when I have a look at the budget for 2018, it's similar to 2017. I'm just wondering if there's a change in mix here or whether you've been listening to Krcmarov about specific targets, perhaps you could talk about where you see that exploration dollar being spent. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: David, normally, we'd have Rob Krcmarov respond to that. He is travelling to one of the sites as we speak today, but we have Shannon McCray (31:31) who works with Rob and maybe we'll ask Shannon (31:34) to comment on that. David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.: All right. Thank you.
Unknown Speaker
So, the exploration guidance for 2018 brings in Minex plus Global X. The balance of our spending is of course in the Americas, was weighted towards our brownfields at Barrick Nevada, our Fourmile project and of course Alturas as greenfield. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah. So, just to sort of draw on that. What you're not seeing in that Global X number is that increase in Minex spending. So Goldrush, for example, now sits in Minex rather than Global X. So, when you look at the overall amount of exploration drilling that we are doing as a company, we are seeing a significant increase. It's just the split between what we would describe as brownfields versus greenfields. It means it looks like our Global X is not changing. David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.: Okay. That's good. Thank you for that. That's it for me. Yeah. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, David.
Operator
The next question comes from Tom Holl who is with BlackRock. Please go ahead, sir. Thomas David Holl - BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd.: Hi, guys. Thank you very much for taking the question on the call. First one is quite a simple one. Just what drove the decision to go to the flat gold price assumption or flat copper price assumption in reserves? And what is the sensitivity of reserves if you went back to the old assumption of $1,000 for a few years and $2.25? And then, secondly, I was wondering if you could just reassure Acacia minorities that once an agreement is made in Tanzania that they will get a vote on the resolution that is agreed and that it will be a vote for the minorities rather than just by Barrick? Thank you. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Hi, Tom. Thanks for joining. Look, on the first question related to reserves, we'll ask Rick Sims to address that. Please, Rick? Rick Sims - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah. The real reason for going to the $1,200 constant price is for all – really the biggest reason is simplicity and the fact of the matter is that as the mines optimize their life of mine plans, the effective price that's used in the early years is typically even less than a thousand. So, we're working on that sort of an approach, even as we speak, to really come up with an optimum mix between the two sort of end members. But we really do operate in the near term at much less than $1,200. Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Tom, it's Richard here. On the votes and Acacia and so on, once an agreement is reached, we're working on that now. The independent committee of Acacia will review. They make a recommendation to Acacia's board. Following that, Acacia's board will make a recommendation to Acacia's shareholders. And in terms of voting, Barrick intends to exercise its shareholder rights. Thomas David Holl - BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd.: Okay. Thank you, that's very clear. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah. Thanks, Tom.
Operator
The next question is from Kerry Smith of Haywood Securities. Please go ahead. Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities, Inc.: Thanks, operator. Richard, just in broad terms, there it say, call the 0.5 million ounce reduction in your average production after 2018. Where would that come from in broad terms, which operation? Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: It's kind of across the whole mix, Kerry. And again, it's – if you think about what's happening right now and you were there with us last year, is the open pit at Cortez is shutting down for the end of this year. So that's the dominant element, but again across the areas there's reduction, but if you're looking for the thing that swings it more than anything else, it's the open pit in Nevada. Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities, Inc.: Yeah. Okay. Okay. But for the rest of them, we could just assume 10% reduction, let's say per operation? Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: Well, I think its variable. So, we've got growth within the portfolio. Turquoise Ridge is a great example of that. We got steady production. PV is an example of that going out to 2021. But yeah, the big bulk of that 500,000 ounce reduction really out to 2021, it's the changing profile of Barrick Nevada, which is then obviously picked back up again with the investments in Cortez Hills underground and Goldrush. Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities, Inc.: Right. Okay. Okay. That's good. Thank you. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Kerry.
Operator
The next question is from Greg Barnes who's with TD Securities. Please go ahead. Greg Barnes - TD Securities, Inc.: Yes. Thank you. Obviously, the copper price in the copper market looks very strong. You've got a big copper business. Does it still fit within Barrick? Are you looking at options for that? What's the longer term view on how copper stays or doesn't stay within Barrick? Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Well, Greg, we're going to spend quite a bit of time talking about that next week, in fact, at our Investor Day. But we recognize the value of the copper business in the portfolio in many respects underappreciated. So while we've indicated that copper assets are non-core, we've always said they're very – they're high value. So, if you will participate next week, I'm sure you will – we'll spend more time talking about that. Greg Barnes - TD Securities, Inc.: Okay. I'll wait till then. Thanks. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Greg.
Operator
The next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek, who's with Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Tanya Jakusconek - Scotiabank: Oh, good. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. Maybe just going to start back on the reserves and I know Tom asked this, but just an idea if we had a waterfall chart, the sensitivity from moving from $1,000 to $1,200 long term what would have been the impact to reserves? Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Rick, are you still involved and can... Rick Sims - Barrick Gold Corp.: You bet. You bet, Kelvin. Yeah, Tanya, we will give you some detail in the Investor Day presentations next week to address exactly your question. So if you can wait until then, we'll get that to you. Tanya Jakusconek - Scotiabank: Okay. And then maybe while I have you on the line, can I ask about Turquoise Ridge? I mean, the resource did fall by about 6 million ounces. I think you mentioned that it was a change in the mine plan like the open pit doesn't make any... Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah. Tanya Jakusconek - Scotiabank: ... it doesn't make any economic sense. Is that what's happened with the 6 million ounces that just kind of went away? Rick Sims - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah. That's exactly right. The total resource drop is actually more like 10 million ounces combined, measured, indicated and inferred. Tanya Jakusconek - Scotiabank: Yeah. Rick Sims - Barrick Gold Corp.: And it's directly a result of the fact that we're going to mine those ounces in the next few years as opposed to 20 years from now in an open pit. But what we've done is we really always do a tradeoff between our underground viability and open pit viability. And as we increase the underground reserve, we're essentially consuming the open pit potential resource. But the good news is that we'll get money out of it much sooner. Tanya Jakusconek - Scotiabank: Okay. And maybe just looking at – and I don't know when – maybe Richard wants to take this question on your long-term outlook. In there are some projects which I guess we still need board approval for and if I can remember correctly, maybe Catherine can help on this. Lagunas Norte, we were still struggling getting that internal rate of return of 15% at $1,200 gold. Have we done a lot of work to improve that, that Lagunas Norte is in this production forecast? Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: I'm again going to do the usual thing and say can you wait till next week? But I think just to give you a brief answer on that, we've talked about moving Lagunas to two phases, which reduces the sort of upfront capital profile of that project. So, we'll give you more detail on that phased plan and really phase 1 versus phase 2 in next week. To be clear, we do now have board approval for Turquoise Ridge third shaft, Goldrush and Cortez Hills underground. Tanya Jakusconek - Scotiabank: Yeah. No, I was – that ones I knew. It was just more the Lagunas because I think the technical study, if I can remember correctly, didn't have that internal rate of return at that level. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: So, we'll provide you more details, but the phased plan effectively creates a different profile. Tanya Jakusconek - Scotiabank: Okay. And then maybe, Catherine, can we just chat about the recent tax reforms in the U.S. and Argentina? Is that 41% to 43% effective tax rate guidance going to be your long-term incorporating these changes? Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: Nothing's long term with tax, Tanya, but then let's assume – the 41% to 43% reflects the U.S. tax reform, and so you would expect that reduction in U.S. tax rates to carry on through the rest – over the long term. With regards to Argentina, we've not made any real assumptions around Argentina primarily because there's a requirement – in order to take advantage of the lower tax rate, there's a requirement to keep your cash inside of Argentina. We're not yet in a position to make that judgment. So, we've not assumed anything in terms of changes in tax rate in Argentina. Tanya Jakusconek - Scotiabank: Okay. Look forward to more details next week at the Investor Day. Thank you. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Tanya.
Operator
The next question comes from Brian MacArthur with Raymond James. Please go ahead, sir. Brian MacArthur - Raymond James Ltd.: Good morning. Sort of, this is just following up a little bit on Tanya's question. The whole repatriation of funds, can I assume is that a financial decision from the point of view that it's better in the U.S. now or is it a strategic decision more that we're going to redeploy more capital in the U.S. because you see that's the best place and there may be regions in the portfolio where you can now get money out efficiently that you are less keen on? And if so, I don't know if you'd be willing to comment on those regions and where the money sits. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: What I'd say it's a bit of everything. I wouldn't say the latter is a primary focus of ours. I think in terms of having sufficient liquidity in the company, we have no problems moving money around with the exception obviously Acacia. The cash in Acacia is within Acacia and doesn't flow up into the company. So, really it's around the financial benefits of bringing that cash in in terms of the one-time toll charge versus higher rate under the previous legislation as well as that's really the focus of our investment over the next few years. If you look at where we're growing our production, where we're investing capital, it is very much in the U.S. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: The U.S. effective tax rate is less than 21%. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah. Brian MacArthur - Raymond James Ltd.: Great. Thanks very much. That's very helpful. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Brian.
Operator
The next question comes from Chris Troy (sic) [Terry] (42:56) of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Chris, your line is open. Chris Terry - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Hi, guys. Chris Terry here. Just had a question on the cost side with the new AISC guidance. How do you think about the macro environment and what – can you comment a little bit on the consumables, the general underlying trends on the input side? And then, just – I know you touched on it earlier, but the $700 goal that you did have, are you still saying that you can get there eventually or are you sort of moving away from that? I just wanted to be a little clearer on that? Thanks. Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: Okay. Thanks. I'll answer that. On the macro trends, in terms of inflation, you've been seeing it everywhere. There's inflationary trends that didn't exist three years ago, be they in fuel, power, consumables, labor costs, contracting and the works. And again, this year's cash costs, we're very happy at where they came in because they were working against that type of headwind. Now, we factor that type of headwind in to a degree going forward. But in reality, the way in which we operate and I'll come to the $700 question in a minute. If we work on a constant basis to reduce the input costs to us, supply chain negotiations and particularly with respect to supply chain integration and with operation. And we found over the last three years, we have seen in trend terms, the actual underlying unit costs dropped relative to where they were. And that in itself is a trend that we would continue to expect going forward. But in the face of the macro trend, you got to know, we factored in a conservative position right now to be realistic. So we're not in the business of distorting expectations, and that brings us finally on to the $700 number. This number has really helped us drive down operating costs and improve production and indirectly and probably more importantly, our safety, health and environment outputs over the last three years. We've been focusing very much in terms of also the collective efforts on the core sites and have had considerable progress there, and digitization will help. But as we go forward, as Catherine has outlined, we actually have to invest more in these operations. Minex is but one part of this. And so what you'll see on a year-on-year basis, and we've given very realistic guidance right now as we expect things as Catherine and myself have outlined to this to improve over the period of time. So, it's not that the $700 aspiration. It's still there and driving the way in which we're operating and thinking as we're taking account of all of these factors, the need to inject more capital, older mines and these inflationary headwinds to give more challenges to our operators to yield those productivity advances. Chris Terry - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Thanks. Thanks, Richard. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Good. Thank you, Chris.
Operator
The next question comes from Stephen Walker with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead, sir. Stephen David Walker - RBC Capital Markets: Great. Thank you. I'd like to follow on Chris's question and a little more granularity and maybe this is a question for Greg Walker or Bill MacNevin on the operating side. If you had to look at your unit cost per ton for mining and processing, what percentage increase are you seeing year-over-year on a per ton basis? If you step back and look at the operations in general, are we talking 5% to 10% or are we talking 10% to 20% ranges? And again, I don't need specific numbers per asset, but when you look at the mining portfolio, particularly your five big core assets, what would you say the percentage increase in your per ton unit costs has increased year-over-year? Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah. I'll answer that honest because we did this trend line thing. In terms of open pit, over the last three years have gone up by about 4% even though total tonnages dropped by 85 million tonnes. In terms of underground mining, they've dropped in the range of 7% to 8% over those three years, which has been pretty remarkable. Again, there's been increased tonnage, but we've been driving down those costs. In terms of roaster and autoclave processing, again, we've seen reduction over those three years. And the only area that's going up has been heap leach, which gone up by 11% and that's because of the considerable reduction in the amount of tonnes that we've been processing. And this is I'm really glad of this question because that actually allows us to give you a detailed feel and you get more on the Investor Day on actually how we've been driving down these costs, even though in some areas we've been facing those where we've been facing period inflationary headwinds, but in some areas we've been reducing the tonnage as well. Greg, you got anything else to add to that? Greg Walker - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Richard. As you said, by site it varies across all that sites. Richard' comment about the reduction in the underground, particularly in Nevada. They've done an excellent job in Cortez, Goldstrike and Turquoise Ridge in driving down the unit costs. As the unit cost, we needed to drive those down and we need to improve our efficiency because our grade has been going down and that's been another headwind we'd work against. But generally, the increases are being flat or sorry, being flat or slight reduction and looking forward that's a challenge to maintain that unit rates going forward. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: And just for everyone's reference, in the press release, we provide our oil price assumption that we've used both in 2018, but also in 2019 and 2022. So we have factored in oil prices of $70 in our assumptions in 2019 onwards. Stephen David Walker - RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Thank you. Thanks for that, Catherine. Greg, if I can follow up, if you were to rank where you think the greatest cost escalation could occur over the next three years? I guess, assuming flat energy. Is it labor cost, is it mining, is it maintenance? Can you give us a top to bottom where the highest leverage cost impacts could occur, whether it's open pit or underground? You can kind of lump them all together, how would you break that down just very crudely top to bottom, biggest leverage to lowest leverage on cost? Greg Walker - Barrick Gold Corp.: I think you just highlighted the (49:45). The energy is obviously the biggest one and that's linked to oil and (49:50) assumption for oil. Labor, some of our mine sites as you're seeing there for example on a lot of pressure there for labor cost. We have generally pressure across the board for labor. We're looking at our labor intensities and trying to manage those increased cost by reducing our labor intensities on our operations. Then, as you said, maintenance was also driven by (50:15) costs and that comes from – related to energy inputs. So, you basically touched on the main ones; energy, labor and consumables and tax (50:27). Stephen David Walker - RBC Capital Markets: That's very helpful. Thank you very much, Greg. That's all for me. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Stephen.
Operator
We have a follow-up question from Andrew Kaip of BMO. Please go ahead, sir. Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets (Canada): Hi. Thanks very much. Look, I'm intrigued in this discussion about Turquoise and the conversion from open pit resources to underground and I'm just wondering of those 10 million ounces that move – decline in overall resource, how much of that are you expecting to capture over time back into a mine plan from an underground perspective? You've captured some of it, but are we going to see further gains I guess is my question? Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: Kelvin, do you want me to take that one? Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yes, please. We've already (51:17) – maybe Rick you start and if Henri want to add anything in the Turquoise, (51:21), Henri, feel free. Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah, I'll just begin by saying that a big chunk of the addition to Turquoise Ridge was in the old underground or open pit resource. So, we've already taken a big chunk of that. And I think, Henri, you'll probably talk about as we can lower our mining cost and increase our efficiency in mining underground, we'll continue to do that, but we will never get the full 10 million out in the underground. Henri Gonin - Barrick Gold Corp.: Okay. So really the driver going forward is going to be cost related and can those costs be driven down sufficiently, so that some of that, that lower grade material ultimately comes into o mine plan. Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: Yeah. The thing that actually drove that pit every – all the time is the high grade in and around the underground mine. And as we increase our efficiencies, we decrease the viability of that open pit resource, but that's actually a good thing as I was saying to Tanya. But the full 10 million, there's a lot of low grade stuff out there that we're just not going to be able to mine efficiently and economically from underground. Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets (Canada): And can you give us a sense of what that low grade material is, like what is that average grade of that low grade envelope that you're talking about? Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: It's typically down in the 0.1 ounce range, and our cut-off grades at TR are above 0.2 ounce, so it's in that range between 0.1 ounce and 0.2 ounce. Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets (Canada): Okay. Catherine P. Raw - Barrick Gold Corp.: We're talking about ounces that's on there. Richard J. Williams - Barrick Gold Corp.: Ounces, sorry ounces, I'm thinking in ounces because we're in the United States. So, somewhere between the 3-gram to 6-gram range. Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets (Canada): All right. Thank you very much. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thanks, Rick. Thanks, Andrew.
Operator
There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to return the conference back over to Kelvin Dushnisky for any closing remarks. Kelvin Dushnisky - Barrick Gold Corp.: Thank you, operator, and thanks to all of you who dialed in today. I know it's been a busy reporting day, so we appreciate all of you joining us. And for those of you who are planning to participate, we look very forward to speaking with you again next week on our Investor Day webcast. So, thank you very much.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Should you have any additional questions, please contact the Barrick Investor Relations Department. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating. Have a pleasant day.